1/ Since many people asking why #Russia is still running a #SMO (Special military operation) and does not transform it into formal war and mobilises, I want to deliver some answers. #Ukraine is a small piece in the big geopolitical game, to end the Western hegemony over the world
2/ #Russia has dared to openly challenge the Western system (empire/colonization of most countries of the world, called globalization) and to show to the world, that it can withstand everything, the West can throw against it. This is not enough, Russia even want's to show, to its
3/ #BRICS partners, with which it wants to redefine the world order, that it can handle the Western retaliation measures (economical and militarily in #Ukraine) with ease. Why? To brag? No! To show, that every nation, that wants to join the future free world, can be safe
4/ against Western retaliation measures. Today, if you are not #Russia or #China, and you openly dare, to not follow Western orders, you either get bombed into stone age or you get sanctioned into stone age. Basically old school colonial behaviour. Russia and China wants to offer
5/ to the world a alternative system, where all countries can operate free and without the threat, to be "stoneaged". Therefore a alternative economic and financial system is needed, which is being launched currently. All nations, that join the #BRICS systems,
6/ can't be sanctioned anymore by the West. Neither can the West track its financial transactions anymore, as soon as they join the #China|ese or #Russia|ian #SWIFT alternative. Well, this is only one part of the story, not being sanctioned into stone aged. Leaves the question
7/ about being bombed into stone age. This is, what #Russia is currently trying to show in #Ukraine. That it can fight off #NATO with a minimal force, due to technological superiority. The goal of the #China/Russia axis is, to show the world, that it can defend all nations
8/ if they seek independence from they century long colonial masters. #Russia has chosen, to finish this job with its regular army, without mobilisation. Which means she has some one million troops, and needs to use them to achieve its goals. If you are not a kiddy, then you
9/ realise, that you can't simply withdraw you whole army from the whole country and throw it into #Ukraine. #Russia is, in this case unfortunately, the biggest country in the world. Which means in turn, that it has plenty of places and countries around them, where the West can
10/ stir up trouble. So All the #Russia|n garrisons across the country needs to be manned and prepared to intervene, where needed. Moreover there is always a imminent threat, that the West could intervene in #Ukraine, therefore Russia maintains a strike force of some 300.000
11/ troops, to intervene, if the West would do shit in the Western direction. What is left, is the #SMO!
So, to be able, to increase troops in #Ukraine, #Russia can rise volunteer formations (which it does, across Russia) or mobilise. Here we come to the geopolitical problems.
12/ #Russia (to be precise, #Putin himself) stated the goals of the #SMO at the beginning off it. If you don't achieve your goals in a war, then it means in turn, that you LOST this war. Yes, you still can escalate, mobilise and crush the enemy, but it would be considered as
13/ weakness, by its #BRICS partners. The West knows this very well, and that's why it does whatever it can, to force #Russia to mobilise and to show, that it can't even handle such a corrupt and poor country as #Ukraine, without its full military might. How can Russia defend
14/ then the rest of the world against the West itself, if it can't even defeat #Ukraine without everything it has?
Fair point! That's why I can imagine, that #Putin will do, whatever he can, to avoid this losing of a) his own face, and b) of #Russia|n face as a whole, as a
15/ defender against Western imperialism and colonialism.
Here we have a problem. This fight is existential for #Russia. It put everything it has into the project "new world order without Western hegemony". If it fails, Russia is completely done and isolated. If it wins, it will
16/ be one of the leaders of the new world order with #China and the other #BRICS countries. So the fight is existential, exactly, as #WW2 was for it. It can't go back. It needs to win or #Russia is done. In turn it means, if shit hits the fan, then it will escalate and mobilise
17/ but only if nothing else works. Because its position in the new world would be compromised then and far weaker... behind #China etc.
So please, everyone, who only sees #Ukraine and what would be militarily right, I'm sure the #Russia|n general staff knows this as well and
18/ better. But here are far more important things at stake, that needs to be considered. #Russia is fighting for all future generations worldwide, and of course in Russia as well, so they have the chance to grew up in independence and freedom. For such a goal, #Putin considerers
19/ the sacrifices, that are currently made in #Ukraine, as justified.
This is far beyond our imagination and mine as well, that's why I won't judge it here, whether it is good or not. I admit, that it is beyond me. Everyone needs to judge for himself. The only thing I can say,
20/ is, that #Russia won't lose, since it mustn't lose, or there won't be Russia anymore. Before it loses, it will take the measures, necessary, to win. Don't get me wrong... it will take ALL measures... ALL... I won't go deeper into this...
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1/ With this thread I want to address two issues.
a) How #Russia intends to defeat #NATO in #Europe non-militarily.
b) How destroying #Ukraine's power generation capabilities could contribute to this goal.
First some basics.
Russia proposed, At the end of 2021, to NATO and #US
2/ a new security architecture/framework for #Europe. To simplify it, we can say basically, #NATO needs to pull back all its military infrastructure behind its borders off the year 1996. Otherwise #Russia would implement military-technical measures, to enforce this.
3/ #NATO and the #US (#Europe hasn't got anything to say) of course refused and here we are... In the implementation of the military-technological measures. How can #Russia now force NATO, to withdraw its infrastructure at the borders off 1996, without starting #WW3 or nuclear
1/ Some thoughts about the military perspective about what just happened in #Izyum / #Kharkov.
First let's talk about Kharkov in general. This region was very poorly defended by #Ukraine|ians the last few months. #Russia took the initiative and started a pinning operation.
2/ This was executed with very few troops as well, because more wasn't needed for the degree of resistance in this place. The goal of a pinning and holding operation is, to draw #Ukraine|ian troops away from other important frontline section, just to defend this "unimportant"
3/ area. This was very successful. A nice side effect of this pinning operation was, that #Russia gained ever more ground around #Kharkov city itself, which is a good starting point for future offensive operations. Since #Ukraine was forced to split its forces between Kharkov
1/ The situation is an absolut smoking pile of shit.
From a military point of view it is manageable. Why? #Russia pulls back and doesn't allow #Ukraine to destroy its valuable formations. The other way around Ukraine is losing manpower and equipment as never before.
Look at my
2/ quoted thread. Yes, #Ukraine achieved a big victory, but it is pyrrhic. Ukraine will have nothing left, after this massacre (full frontal assault without air cover).
Look my threads. #Kharkov was a pinning operation and therefore a weak spot. #NATO exploited it by maximum
3/ impact.
Congratulations. #Russia rightly retreated to safe its troops. She will come back. So nothing is lost. But it is a setback. A big setback because of #Izyum, which is the key to #Slavyansk.
From a human perspective it is even more disastrous. All the civilians left
1/ Little math exercise here: #Ukraine is pushing in #Kharkov with x troops and y reinforcements in the back. Also with z pieces of equipment. With this force they pushed into a certain area. The #Russia|ns has the same xyz. Due to technological superiority Russia is degrading
2/ #Ukraine's xyz far quicker then the other way around. Especially the Y (reinforcements) gets degraded by air- and missile strikes. Those are forces you need to push into the battle, to compensate the losses of the X (strike formations). This losses are huge, since they are in
3/ offensive against a technologically superior and defending enemy. #Russia's xyz is dramatically fast growing by the hour, as we speak, since Russia of course has activated the contingency plan, that is prepared for such a scenario. Until then the buffer around #Izyum needs to
1/ This thread is about the fall off #Balakliia. Also about the #Russia|n bloggers and commentators that are seeing now the end coming and that everything is lost. Who calls for general mobilisation and use of nuclear weapons. This pisses me off, so that I, AGAIN, am forced
2/ to interrupt my Twitter pause. If it goes on like this, I'll delete my account again, to have my peace 🤣😅
Okay. First of all... Everything is okay. There is no panic among the #Russia|ns or their leadership. Why? #Balakliya is a buffer area for the bigger Russian formations
3/ around #Izyum. You always need buffer areas around strategically important assets to be able to maneuver and apply mobile defense, if needed in the depth.
Now unfortunately #Balakliya did, what buffer areas do... Buy time and buffer off the first shock of an assault.
1/ Today I want to put into perspective the Ukraine counter-offensive with the whole strategic picture of the #SMO. Thereby I will discuss potential goals of #Ukraine and possible consequences, executed by #Russia.
I want to start my analysis with two quotes. #Kiev#Donbass
2/ Quote 1 from Clausewitz: "War is the continuation of politics by other means".
Quote 2 from Scott Ritter: "By not losing, #Ukraine is winning this war. By not achieving the stated goals, #Russia is losing this war".
Keep this in mind during the reading of my analysis.
3/ What could be the political goals of #Ukraine (its Western backers)? To survive as a state, that has borders as close as possible to #Moscow and other big #Russia|n cities. (As we all know, the West gives a shit about Ukraine, its people and economy etc.) #Kiev#NATO#Donbass