The #UkrainianCounteroffensive in #Kharkiv Oblast is routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern #Donbas axis. #Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal and are hurriedly fleeing southeastern Kharkiv Oblast to escape encirclement around #Izyum. 🧵1/ 
Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometers in some places and liberated over 3,000 sq. km. of territory in the past five days since September 6 – more territory than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April. 2/
Ukrainian forces will likely capture the city of #Izyum itself in the next 48 hours if they have not already done so. Its liberation would be the most significant Ukrainian military achievement since winning the Battle of Kyiv in March. 3/ storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…
The Russian MoD did not acknowledge Ukrainian successes around Kharkiv Oblast as the primary factor for the Russian retreat and claimed that Russian military command has been carrying out a controlled withdrawal from the Balakliya-Izyum area. 4/ More: iswresearch.org
The Russian MoD falsely claimed that Russian forces undertook a number of demonstrative actions and used artillery and aviation to ensure the safety of withdrawing Russian forces. These Russian statements have no relation to the situation on the ground. 5/ iswresearch.org
The Russian MoD’s inability to admit Russian failures in Kharkiv Oblast and effectively set information conditions is collapsing the Russian information space. 6/ iswresearch.org
Kremlin-sponsored propagandists offered a variety of confusing explanations for Ukrainian successes ranging from justifications that Russian forces are fighting against the entire Western Bloc, to downplaying the importance of Russian ground lines of communication in Kupyansk. 7/
The Kremlin’s propagandists were unusually disorganized in their narratives, with some confirming the liberation of certain towns and others refuting such reports. Guest experts also were unable to reaffirm the hosts’ narratives that Ukrainian successes are not significant. 8/
Such programming may reveal the true progress of the Russian “special military operation” to the general Russian public that relies on state media and the Russian MoD for updates. 9/ iswresearch.org
The withdrawal announcement further alienated the Russian milblogger and Russian nationalist communities who condemned the Russian MoD for remaining quiet, choosing self-isolation, and distorting situational awareness in Russia. 10/ iswresearch.org
[📸Source: ISW and CTP, Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS User Community]
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