Dangerous situation in the South Caucasus: with #Russia tied up in the #Ukraine, lots of media attention on developments there this past week, the South Caucasus appears all but stable 2 years after the war in #NagornoKarabakh, #Armenia proper now appears in the crosshairs.
#Azerbaijan's leadership officially demanding a corridor through southern #Armenia towards its Nakhichevan exclave, Armenian not so clear on their stance at times, #Iran stating it will provide one through its own territory... a lot of speculation on this topic.
Comes 3 weeks after the last ethnic Armenians left the Lachin area, the main road there linking #NagornoKarabakh and #Armenia was transferred to Azeri control, Russian peacekeepers redployed to the new road built by Azerbaijan a few kilometres south.
Also comes a bit over a month after a Bayraktar UAV was used against Karabkhi military positions in an area custodied by Russia's peacekeepers, killing at least 3, wounding 14 ethnic Armenian troops, with Azeris taking new heights.
The situation remains even more uncertain than before the 2020 war. The Nagorno Karabakh topic encompases major powers, US, Russia, NATO, Turkey, Iran, the EU, energy security, possible ruptures of geopolitical alliances, etc.. It's worth following up on.
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#Azerbaijan's armed forces suddently opened fire along several segments of the border with #Armenia with UAVs, artillery and mortars, directed towards Armenian military positions near Sotk, Vardenis, Goris, Kapan, Artanish, Ishkhanasar. Civilian infrastructure is also targeted.
"Claims by the Azeri leadership that Armenia started the shelling are fake, whats more, Azerbaijan was preparing the basis for this during the past days, reporting that Armenia was violating the ceasefire on a daily basis"
THREAD - Some highlights from #Azerbaijan's Defence Ministry spokesperson during a press brief on the latest military operations in #Armenia:
"Armenian units along the Kelbajar, Lachin and Daskesen border areas opened fire on Azeri positions, under the cover of darkness, some carried out minelaying operations near Azeri positions and roads connecting them."
The Azeri spokesperson continued: "The Armenian side also trageted Azeri positions with different calibre weapons, including grenade launchers, as a result of which there were losses. "
🧵THREAD - Latest ceasefire violation breach in #NagornoKarabakh and reports of #Azerbaijan attempting incursions in several areas along the line-of-contact (LoC), what we know so far:
1- At 20:09 hours on 1 August, Karabakhi officials reported that Azeri units opened fire on their military positions along the north and northwestern segments of the LoC, stating they thwarted several incursions. Russian peacekeepers were notified.
2- About 11 minutes later, Azeri media started circulating news quoting their defence officials refuting the news, stating that its false information. (1, 2)
BREAKING - #Russia MoD reports #Azerbaijan violated ceasefire agreement in Yarimji, Martakert area #NagornoKarabakh advancing positions, subsequently retreated as a result of negotiations as reported by NK. (2)
This is the 4th incident of #Russia's Defence Ministry reporting a ceasefire violation incident in #NagornoKarabakh since 09 August 2021, all 4 were by #Azerbaijan.
What's being violated according to Russian authorities is the 9 November 2020 ceasefire Agreement.
First report (09 Aug 2021) the head of #Russia's peacekeeping force reports #Azerbaijan using 2 small UAVs against Karabakhi positions. (1, 2)
1/11 - These past 2 weeks some unprecedented developments have taken place directly related to #NagornoKarabakh (NK):
▪️#Armenia-#Azerbaijan leaders meet EU counterpart
▪️Direct phone call between Armenia-Azerbaijan MFAs
▪️Minsk Group essentially disappears
▪️... #russia
2/11 - On 06 April Arm. and Az. leaders meet w/ their EU counterpart, goal to create a bilateral committee for border delimitation (straying away from a trilateral one with Russia as mediator). NK did not appear to occupy a significant place in the discussions. (1, 2)
3/11 - On 11 April Arm-Az MFA's held a direct telephone conversation, possibly the first one ever (if not the first one in decades), discussing border delimitation, preparation for peace negotiations and humanitarian matters. (3, 4)