Quick #thread on #Putin's speech.
1 We in the West need to stop buying into the rhetoric about #redlines and the nuclear threat.
I reminded him yesterday on a program: he has been using this rhetoric for many years.
1/13
To buy into it is to give up—with consequences for other countries elsewhere.
Not coincidentally, this is also a narrative picked up by Putin's propagandists in the West who push for a negotiated solution, peace talks, not arming #Ukraine, no trial for Putin, etc.
2/13
This narrative is what the Kremlin expects. Always keep in mind whose game you are playing and be ruthless to those who relay it.
More than time to throw this Putin #redline narrative in the trash.
3/13
2 This speech applies to the territories that #Russia has illegally annexed: #Crimea, tomorrow those in which the masquerade of referendums will be held. I recalled yesterday the lack of reaction to the beautiful Ukrainian strikes against Russian base in #Crimea.
4/13
In a previous thread, I reminded that we must stop giving a specificity to Crimea among the Ukrainian territories. It is Ukrainian like the rest. The Allies must help Ukraine to reclaim it too.
It's not optional.
5/13
3 Partial mobilization cannot work. Even if reservists are theoretically better trained than new recruits, they cannot be said to be well trained... We have seen this with the regular army, whose debacle has surprised (quite) everyone.
6/13
More than 50,000 Russian soldiers died and probably more than 150,000 were wounded and unable to fight.
They are cannon fodder, nothing more. This confirms a point that I often made: Putin's goal is not power, greatness, but pure destruction—of others and of his own people.
7/13
I stand with the Ukrainian civilians and soldiers, monstrously massacred by the Russians. Every day I not only think of them, but I ask that we, the Allies, do more to save them.
It's our major failure and our guilt before history.
I mourn them as if they were my own.
8/13
No one can rejoice over the death of Russian soldiers and Ukrainians do not. The Ukrainians are defending themselves, that's all.
(And never forget the war crimes perpetrated by the Russian soldiers. They are responsible and the guilty ones will be brought to court).
9/13
But you, fathers, mothers, brothers, sisters, fiancées of Russian soldiers, are you so insensitive, cowardly or stupid to see that Putin takes away your children, your brothers, your loves?
What are you doing?
Give up your passivity and fatalism at last!
Your guilt, too.
10/13
4 Putin has clearly named the West and NATO as his enemies—which is hardly new.
But the West and NATO have not attacked anyone. They are defending our principles, our values, our security.
When #Ukraine is attacked, we are all attacked.
Just propagandists blame the West.
11/13
Today, we must win this war quickly—very quickly, massively increase our deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, all weapons, with no restriction.
Not only #Ukraine must win, but #Russia must lose.
As long as Putin remains in power, there won't be peace in the world.
Take action!
12/13
Let's not let a miserable criminal against humanity and his henchmen threaten us! This regime must be destroyed, also for the sake of #Russia.
To say it again and again:
This is our war.
We are at war.
13/13
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What is interesting here is not so much the content of the message—quite classic—as its very existence.
It may show a willingness (to be confirmed) of the US to re-engage in the #Armenia-#Azerbaijan conflict when it had been very absent during the 2020 war... 1/4
and, before that, little involved in the Minsk group.
The EU as such was, by the way, also.
This left the door open for #Russia, which has become a kingmaker in this region, and reinforced its troops after the 2020 war.
It had also given a tacit nihil obstat to #Azerbaijan. 2/4
I had written this long paper in 2021 on this topic where I explained the background and consequences of the 2020 war.
Perhaps the Russian war against #Ukraine, which has weakened the latter, could in the long run be a game changer,... 3/4 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/who-is-the-r…
Always remember the genocide of the Tatars of #Crimea.
Also always talk about the forced disappearances, torture, persecution of #Tatars and the destruction of their culture by Putin's #Russia since 2014.
Also do not write off Crimea.
Right time to write a #thread on #Crimea. 1/9
1 Some consider Crimea a side issue. No, in terms of law #CrimeaIsUkraine and Western leaders must be consistent with their statements on Crimea's territorial integrity. It comprehends Crimea.
Full stop. 2/9
2 Let's stop with the lying "Crimea is Russian" speech. Besides the fact that it has not always been, the historical legitimization has no value. Only international law counts.
The annexation of Crimea had only one precedent in Europe since WWII: the Sudetenland by Hitler. 3/9
On this day when, in thought with my Ukrainian friends, I am celebrating the 31st anniversary of the independence of #Ukraine.
I would like to say one simple thing: the whole world has been able to see with the force of evidence that this is a great nation...
Слава Україні!
1/22
carried by an extraordinary people.
There are few moments in history when an entire people, from the most anonymous person to its leaders, has shown such courage, such strength, such dignity, such exemplarity.
2/22
This great nation of #Ukraine is also great because of its vision and political ideals. It has built itself as a great nation not by a historical heritage that it has taken over passively, but by its present and current will.
It has made history.
It has instituted freedom.
3/22
I read many (opposing) comments about the supposed or real influence of Alexander #Dugin. I made some myself on several TV and radio stations today.
He was certainly not Putin's Rasputin, nor his director of conscience. But was he without influence?
Let's try to find out.
1/14
⬇️
I don't think you have to be on one side or the other. Things are more subtle and there are methodological points to consider.
The binary opposition of the two theses makes no sense.
2/14
1 First of all, yes, Dugin's books and articles were not equivalent in Putin's ideological system to the Communist Party Manifesto or Marx's Capital in Soviet references or Mao Zedong's Little Red Book. Here me on Putin's ideology.
3/14 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/what-does-vl…
A necessary reminder of the obvious: to think that #Ukraine, as the usual propagandists, Zakharova and others, say, is behind the murder of #Dugin's daughter is totally inane & inconceivable.
The origin is obviously internal, not external.
Hence a brief #thread on this story 1/7
1 First of all, I unreservedly condemn this assassination.
I think that Dugin should be tried in an international criminal court, just as Julius Streicher was. He is guilty of multiple calls to murder. This does not justify the attempt to kill him.
It's a matter of principle. 2/7
2 The relative sophistication of the operation hardly suggests the action of an improvised opposition group.
It is highly doubtful that elements of the Russian security services (which ones? that the question) were not involved. 3/7
I agree 100% with what President @ZelenskyyUa stated again.
There can be no discussion, let alone negotiation, with Putin's #Russia until its forces are driven out of the entire #Donbass and #Crimea.
Some elements in this recap #thread.
1/11
1 First, any proposal by Putin in this sense is a ruse—he is stalling in #Ukraine and he knows it. He's trying to hold on to what he has, before replenishing his forces and going on the offensive again.
Let's not give in.
2/11 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/we-must-save…
2 Given the massive crimes against humanity committed in Ukraine by Putin, accepting negotiations would implicitly mean wiping the slate clean on these imprescriptible crimes.
This is Putin's goal—we gave in to #Syria. Let's not do it for #Ukraine.
3/11 tenzerstrategics.substack.com/p/russian-mass…