As Italians go to the polls, here’s 5 reasons these elections will be qualitatively different from previous ones, and highly consequential 🧵

(Spoiler: not for the reasons you’ve heard before) #ElezioniPolitiche2022 #ItalianElections Image
1. This is 1st time a majority of electorate votes for coalition so loose that nobody knows what it stands for : at home (social vs hawkish?),the EU (passive vs rebellious?) & internationally (pro vs anti Russia?).
2. The 1st RIGHT-Center coalition - made of Meloni, Berlusconi, Salvini (MBS!)- will grab a majority, without knowing yet how and for to use it. This is set to be left to day-to-day horse-trading, not to a well-defined coalition agreement #ElezioniPolitiche2022
3. Much of the lack of clarity of the right-center coalition has been made possible by the inability of the opposition to come together, thus pushing Meloni, Berlusconi & Salvini coalition to clarify their stance, be it domestically, the EU and internationally #ElezioniPolitiche
4.The so called third pole (made of the nascent liberals+former PM Renzi) emerges as not only the major enabler of the right-center coalition, but is also set to swing the balance (despite its limited electoral capital) #ElezioniPolitiche22 Image
5.The democratic quality of electoral process will be scrutinized more than in the last due to:

- high rate of abstention (@Viminale)

- inability of mobile citizens to vote where they reside (@thegoodlobbyit)

- obstacles to register new parties @marcocappato #elezioni2022

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More from @alemannoEU

Sep 28
Will Italy side with #Hungary’s Viktor #Orban & #Poland’s Mateusz #Morawiecki in Europe?

As that’s the most frequent question I get asked, here’s a 🧵

#elezioni2022 Image
The incoming Italian government is set to have a special relation with #Orban as Meloni, Berlusconi & Salvini have an excellent relation with him.

They all share a similar worldview, driven by a mix of sovereignity, traditional family and religion. This applies to #Poland too
But that’s where similarities stop with #Meloni being pro-Ukraine and Orban pro-Russia (yet Berlusconi and Salvini are also pro-Russian)

On migration Salvini & Orban disagreed in the past but 🇮🇹 likely to stop proposed EU reform
Read 8 tweets
Sep 18
🚨Breaking 🚨

The EU Commission proposes - for the 1st time in its history - to suspend the disbursement of 65% of EU funds due to #Hungary in effort to protect #ruleoflaw (loopholes remain)

Now EU-26 must approve it at QMV (unlike under Art 7 #Poland can’t veto it)
Why does the EU suddenly threaten #Hungary with (partial) suspension of EU funds?

(Spoiler: To save everyone’s face)

1. EU leaders show to the public to remain in control vis-à-vis autocratic #Hungary

2. to then approve #Hungary recovery plan (only remaining unapproved)
Today’s EU Commission proposal to suspend EU funds to #hungary originates in #EUCO back in Dec ‘20 that broke deal re: #NextGenerationEU

That ‘deal with the Devil’ put EU into a bind : gaining the power to formally suspend funds meant to turn a blind eye to major breaches
Read 4 tweets
Aug 28
🚨 Breaking: European judges challenge the EU approval of #Poland’s recovery & resilience plan before EU General Court just a few months before elections in the country

Here’s a🧵 on why, how and what of this unprecedented development #ruleoflaw #RPP
Why?

4 associations of European judges intend to defend the interests of the judiciary which they represent & their members including Polish judges subjected to disciplinary proceeding, sanctions & involuntary transfers, in breach of EU law & the #rule of law itself
How?

The judges’ associations argue that #ruleoflaw “milestones” fall short of what is required to ensure effective judicial protection and disregard the judgments of the CJEU

They want Council’s decision to be declared nul & void thus preventing transfer of #RPP funding
Read 26 tweets
Jun 20
The outcome of the French parliamentary elections is highly consequential for both France’s and Europe’s future. Here’s why 🧵

SPOILER: Macron will eventually have to pick either the left or the right!

#electionslegislatives2022 #France #ElectionsLegislatives
1. Macron’s presidential coalition (Ensemble!) came out on top and remains the largest parliamentary force in parliament, BUT lost its absolute majority
2. This leaves us with unprecedented degree of fragmentation and division in the National Assembly, with both the left wing coalition and the far right largely over-performing and squeezing the centre.

Parliamentary power is back! #Elections2022
Read 12 tweets
Jun 17
‼️ The EU Commission paves the way for #Ukraine to gain (conditional) candidate status in record time‼️

Yet that recognition of candidate status may be more symbolic than structural: it may never lead to full membership.

Here’s why 🧵 Image
Today is a moment of truth one for Ukraine, which has invested so much of its political future on a closer relationship with Europe.

There’s political momentum to have #EUCO uniting behind the recognition of candidate status
Despite the lack of a fast track procedure, the EU Commission delivered in record time a positive opinion on 🇺🇦 swift submission to candidate status, in unprecedented conditions (candidate country is at war)
Read 6 tweets
May 10
Did the Conference on the Future of Europe succeed?

It depends very much on how you measure success.

For me it worked beyond expectations.

Here’s why 🧵 #CoFoE #FutureOfEurope
1 If you belong to those who expected #CoFoE to magically deliver a re-opening of the Treaty, you may be disappointed. No majority exists to endorse EP’s demand. That might never materialize. Wait for June #EUCO but it might not be the point project-syndicate.org/commentary/con…
2 If instead you valued #CoFoE as an open-ended (not outcome-bound) process, you may be satisfied. Not only a permanent mechanism of citizen deliberation in EU decision-making is foreseen, but that can be done without treaty change. But there’s more.

euronews.com/2022/01/20/fra…
Read 12 tweets

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