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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 29

@criticalthreats

Circumstantial evidence suggests that #Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties. Read the first daily Iran Crisis Update by @criticalthreats with @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/6

Regime power centers are behaving as if succession is either imminent or underway. 2/6

The ongoing #MahsaAmini protests may be challenging the regime’s capability and willingness to crackdown but do not appear close to collapsing the regime. 3/6

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 28

@TheStudyofWar

#Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied #Ukrainian territory on September 30 after Russian officials completed their falsified “referenda” on September 27. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions on the eastern bank of the #Oskil river and made further gains on the outskirts of #Lyman.

#Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations around #Bakhmut and west of #Donetsk City, increasingly leveraging penal units.

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 26

An Iranian parliamentarian recently suggested using facial recognition technology to crack down on internal unrest. What are #Iranian AI capabilities and how do they intersect with ongoing #MahsaAminii Protests? A thread: #IranProtests 1/6

The head of #Iran's parliamentary legal and judicial committee recently advocated for reinforcing Iranian facial recognition technology to reduce clashes between #Iranian security forces and protestors. 2/6

This isn't the first time we're hearing of #Iran using #AI tech to track dissent. The Iranian Traffic Police discussed its plans to use facial recognition software to identify and fine pedestrians back in 2020. 3/6

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 26

Key #Iranian military leaders may be endorsing President Ebrahim #Raisi to succeed Ali #Khamenei as #Iran’s next supreme leader. Here is what happened and why it matters: (1/8)

Senior Iranian military officials published an open letter praising Raisi’s #UN General Assembly address on 9/21. These letters are rare and used by officials to signify their political positions to the wider regime. Some of the #IRGC’s senior commanders signed this letter. (2/8)

These IRGC commanders include a tight circle of senior officers who often influence and intervene in domestic politics to promote their hardline agendas. They have established the IRGC as the most dominant actor in Iran. Read more here: (3/8)
criticalthreats.org/wp-content/upl…

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 26

The #AlShabaab bombing in Mogadishu this weekend was meant as retaliation and deterrent against Somali government forces. Somali federal and local forces are putting serious pressure on al Shabaab in central and SW Somalia. (1/8)

An #AlShabaab suicide bomber attacked new Somali National Army (SNA) recruits in Mogadishu on Sep 25, killing at least 11 soldiers and wounding 18 others. Al Shabaab inflated the death toll to 32 in its claim. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…. (2/8)

@USAfricaCommand

#AlShabaab has signaled it will escalate operations in Mogadishu in response to the SFG and clan militia offensive in central and SW Somalia. @USAfricaCommand and @ATMIS_Somalia are also providing air and logistical support to Somali forces. criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-…. (3/8)

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Sep 26

@TheStudyofWar

NEW | #Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to overcome fundamental structural challenges in attempting to mobilize large numbers of Russians to continue his war in #Ukraine. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Ukrainian forces likely liberated the town of #Shevchenko in #Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces are contesting #Russian positions around #Karpivka, #Nove, #Ridkodub, and #Novoserhiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

#Ukrainian forces likely control #Maliivka in #Kharkiv Oblast.

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