My take on #NordStream explosions 💥 3 total leaks, 2 on #NS1, 1 on #NS2. Neither CURRENTLY in use to ship gas due to breakdown in relations btwn #Russia & #Europe over #RussiaUkraineWar 1/8
#NordStream leaks are near #Bornholm, #Denmark. 12 nautical miles from international waters, 70 meters deep = dive-able 🤿 2/8
Very hard to imagine that this was an accident, deep sea pipeline leaks are pretty rare. It is likely sabotage. Could be divers, likely not a spy submarine for a variety of reasons #NordStream 3/8
Implications are huge. Europe is already in #EnergyCrisis trying to divorce itself from #Russia #energy supplies. This is a clear signal that Russia is not going to deliver gas to Europe in the near future. Europe will have to get it elsewhere, & global market is tight 4/8
Infrastructure is vulnerable. Main principle ofRussian warfighting is attacking critical infrastructure #SODCIT.
5/8
European #energy infrastructure is vulnerable. New #BalticPipe between #Norway & #Poland (inaugurated today!) also critical #LNG import terminals. #NordStream 6/8
euronews.com/2022/09/27/bal…
The #NordStream leak shows why spare energy capacity is CRITICAL for security. #Europe does not have this, & that is a big problem. #EnergySecurity 7/8
foreignaffairs.com/europe/europe-…
Big takeaway: #Europe-#Russia energy bridge is dead ☠️ in the water. No going back. RU pivot to Asia to sell #energy, Europe has to find it somewhere else. This is will have huge economic & societal impacts. Buckle up. 8/8

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More from @EmilyJHolland

Sep 28
🧵🚨 Gazprom 🇷🇺rejects Naftogaz 🇺🇦 demand for arbitration due to "unfriendly" arbitration environment in Switzerland 🇨🇭. This means we might be looking at ZERO #Russia gas to Europe this winter. 1/x
3 #NordStream pipes are severely damaged due to this week's explosions, technically 1 pipe of #NS2 could work, but not likely anytime soon. Hard to imagine #Germany 🇩🇪 will agree to use it. 2/x
tagesspiegel.de/wirtschaft/eu-…
We were already looking at no gas via #NordStream this winter, but adding a 2009 Russo-Ukraine gas dispute style event is cause for concern for some EU member states, like #Italy 🇮🇹 when they are in process of forming their next government. 3/x
Read 6 tweets
Feb 24
Quick thread on #Europe #EnergySecurity given the context of today's events. 1. It is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that there will be a major interruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe because Russia and Europe are energy *interdependent* 1/x
That means Russia is also reliant on Europe as a consumer of its natural gas. It is not technically possible for Russia to turn around & sell gas bound for Europe to Asian consumers because infrastructure binds certain Russian gas fields with European export routes. 2/x
So over the long term Russia may be able to sell more volumes of gas to China, but they can't do it right away, & the Chinese will pay less than European consumers. 3/x
Read 10 tweets

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