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Oct 1 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
#Russian President Vladimir #Putin announced the illegal #Russian annexation of four #Ukrainian territories on September 30 without clearly defining the borders of those claimed territories. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian forces will likely capture or encircle #Lyman within the next 72 hours.
#Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian ground maneuvers in #Kherson Oblast but stated that Ukrainian forces continued to force #Russian troops into defending their positions.
#Russian troops continued ground assaults in #Donetsk Oblast.

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More from @criticalthreats

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Oct 2
#Iranian security forces brutally cracked down on anti-regime protests at #SharifUniversity in #Tehran on October 2. Here's what you can expect from CTP's #IranProtests update later today: 1/5
Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei remains absent and did not make a public appearance or statement on October 2. 2/5
#Sharif University students reported that #Iranian security forces barricaded, shot, and arrested student protestors in #Tehran on October 2. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 2
#Ukrainian forces liberated #Lyman and are likely clearing the settlement as of October 1.
Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces conducted ground attacks in the #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka areas of #Donetsk Oblast. Image
#Russian forces conducted a failed ground attack on #Kozacha Lopan in northern #Kharkiv Oblast on October 1. Image
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 1
Demonstrations erupted throughout Iran as #MahsaAmini protests entered their fifteenth consecutive day. Keep an eye out for CTP's full update and protest map for more details. #IranProtests #مهسا_امینی
CTP can asses with moderate-to-high confidence that anti-regime protests occurred in at least 20 Iranian cities in 17 provinces on October 1 as of 12:35 EST. Protestors were able to organize demonstrations despite ongoing internet restrictions. #اعتراضات_سراسری
Footage circulating on social media documented protestors chanting a slogan unique to the #MahsaAmini movement: "Woman, Life, Freedom." #زن_زندگی_آزادی
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Sep 29
Popular, anti-regime protests have erupted throughout Iran since September 16. Read the first #Iran Crisis Update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. 1/5 criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
Protests are now occurring in over 93 cities and towns in 31 of #Iran's 32 provinces as of September 25. The regime has violently suppressed protests and sustained casualties among its security forces in recent days. 2/5
#Iranian reporting and statements from senior judiciary and security officials suggest that the regime fears losing its capability to crack down on ongoing unrest. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Sep 29
Circumstantial evidence suggests that #Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei is at least temporarily unable to perform his normal duties. Read the first daily Iran Crisis Update by @criticalthreats with @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/6
Regime power centers are behaving as if succession is either imminent or underway. 2/6
The ongoing #MahsaAmini protests may be challenging the regime’s capability and willingness to crackdown but do not appear close to collapsing the regime. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Sep 28
#Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely announce the Russian annexation of occupied #Ukrainian territory on September 30 after Russian officials completed their falsified “referenda” on September 27. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions on the eastern bank of the #Oskil river and made further gains on the outskirts of #Lyman.
#Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations around #Bakhmut and west of #Donetsk City, increasingly leveraging penal units.
Read 4 tweets

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