Turkish delegation to #Tripoli headed by the Foreign Minister & including the defense, energy, and trade ministers arrived in the capital today to sign a number of agreements with the GNU. The visit & deals to be signed come at a critical time & will be viewed as an escalation.
1- The Turkish delegation will sign MoUs with the GNU in the energy sector for exploration in the disputed maritime EEZ, as well as, MoUs in trade, media/communication & military training.
2- #Turkey is doing with the GNU exactly what it did with the GNA, exploiting their weakness and vulnerability to #Turkey's advantage by imposing deals/agreements that benefit #Turkey's geopolitical/economic interests.
3- The comments by the GNU's oil and gas minister Mohamed Aoun are a clear sign that #Turkey is proposing unfavorable terms for #Libya in those agreements/deals it aims to push through with al-Dabiaba.
4- This move by #Turkey will be viewed and treated as an escalation on the part of various foreign stakeholders involved in #Libya. In particular, #Egypt, #Greece, and #France. The GNU/Dabaiba hope that #Turkey will help defend them & prolong their time in power.
5- Domestically, the deals expected to be signed by the Turkish delegation with the GNU will draw opposition & potential action from Libyan stakeholders & their support bases. #Libya
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A #thread to answer the question in this tweet from September 29 regarding the visit of @hms_albion to #Tripoli & why the event angered Libyans across the country & drew criticism from figures across the political spectrum.
1- From what I saw & read online, the anger was not directed at the visit by @hms_albion to #Tripoli per se. Visits by other navy vessels to #Libya from others states have taken place over the years. But the timing/optics of this visit were off & could have been managed better.
As the HoR moves ahead with appointing a new interim authority likely to be led by @fathi_bashagha, the GNU is suffering from major internal divisions/turbulence. Yesterday @Dabaibahamid tried to put on a brave face & rally Libyans to support him by going out on the streets.
People will not come out on the streets to support Dbaiba because he failed on every key file that his Gov was supposed to handle. He thought he could buy his way with the entire population the same way he managed to buy his way through the @UNSMILibya facilitated LPDF. #Libya
Yesterday @Dabaibahamid promised that he won't drag #Libya into another war or preside over a return to division, but at the same time vowed not to hand over power except to an elected authority. The irony is that he & his team worked hard to prevent the 24 Dec elections.
Short thread - Mass graves discovered recently in #Tarhuna. Since 2011, #Tarhuna has been the scene for some horrific crimes at the hands of a local armed group known as the Kaniyat.
1- Over the years, the Kaniyat formed a number of opportunistic alliances of convenience with various actors including: LIFG figures, Qaddafi loyalists, Misratan factions & their latest alliance with the LNA/#Haftar. #Libya
2- The discovery of the mass graves in #Tarhuna occurred after the fall of the city in the hands of the Turkish backed GNA forces. As with everything else in #Libya this horrific tragedy is being weaponized politically in the ongoing war of narratives by the conflict parties.
#Thread loss of Watiya airbase. What it means for the LNA's presence in western #Libya & repercussions for its support base elsewhere. Also, what does this mean for the LNA's external backers? #Libya
1- Loss of al-Watiya airbase is the most strategic loss for the LNA since the start of its offensive back in April 2019. The base represented an important asset for the LNA operations in western #Libya for combat/supplies. LNA advisers/officers admit to that.
2- No doubt the loss of al-Watiya will hit the morale of LNA forces elsewhere. GNA taking al-Watiya means freeing up resources/forces for the southern #Tripoli suburbs. This will bring unprecedented pressure on LNA forces stationed there. Tarhuna becomes the next target. #Libya
Thread - #Turkey stepping up its drone operations in #Libya inflicting some heavy losses on the LNA. Yesterday, a cargo plane was destroyed with a Turkish UAV strike after it landed in #Tarhuna. Eastern authorities claimed the cargo was carrying medical/food supplies to #Tarhuna.
1- In coordination with GNA, #Turkey is launching a 3-stage operation in #Tripoli. 1- cut-off LNA supply lines. 2- degrade LNA capabilities & in west #Libya & force its forces to retreat. 3- Increase Turkish military footprint in western #Libya including bases in Tripoli/Misrata.
2- LNA & external backers are intent on foiling #Turkey's plan i.e. will escalate. They see GNA/Turkey's recent escalation as a ground for a major escalation & use of excessive force on their part - this is tragic for civilians in #Tripoli. #Libya