ISW Profile picture
Oct 4 7 tweets 6 min read
Southern Axis Update:

#Ukrainian forces continued to advance in northwestern and northeastern #Kherson Oblast between October 2 and 3. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3
Southern Axis Update:

#Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces liberated #Myrolyubivka (23km northwest of #Kherson City) and #Arkhanhelske on the #Inhulets River south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3
Southern Axis Update:

The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) acknowledged that #Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian defenses in the direction of Zolota Balka (approximately 82km northeast of Nova Kakhovka). /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3
Southern Axis Update:

#Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces first retreated to defensive positions in #Mykhailivka on October 1 but likely fell further back to #Dudchany on October 2. /4
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3
Southern Axis Update:

#Ukrainian forces continued to advance south in the direction of Nova Kakhovka, and geolocated footage showed that they liberated Mykhailivka, Havrylivka, and Novooleksandrivka along the T0403. /5
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3
Southern Axis Update:

Social media footage and #Russian milblogger discourse also indicated that #Ukrainian forces made advances west of the T0403 highway, liberating #Khreschenivka on October 1. /6
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3
Southern Axis Update:

#Russian sources also reported that #Ukrainian forces liberated settlements on the Lyubomyrivka-Bilaivka-Novoolesandrivka line. /7
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Oct 5
#Putin’s partial mobilization is having more significant short-term impacts on the Russian domestic context than on the war in #Ukraine, interacting with Russian battlefield failures to exacerbate fractures in the information space that confuse and undermine Putin’s narratives.🧵
2/ #Putin is visibly failing at balancing the competing demands of the Russian nationalists who have become increasingly combative since mobilization began despite sharing Putin’s general war aims and goals in #Ukraine. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct4
3/ @TheStudyofWar has identified 3 main factions in the current Russian nationalist information space: Russian milbloggers & war correspondents, former Russian or proxy officers & veterans, and some of the Russian siloviki - people with meaningful power bases & their own forces.
Read 18 tweets
Oct 4
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian troops continued to consolidate gains around #Lyman on October 2 and 3 and likely made gains in the direction of the #Luhansk Oblast border. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russia's MoD stated that Russian troops struck Ukrainian positions in Yampolivka on October 2, confirming that Ukrainian troops control territory about 15km northeast of Lyman and within 10km west of the Luhansk Oblast border. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources also stated that Ukrainian troops took control of #Terny and #Torske, 15km northeast and 13km east of #Lyman, respectively. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct3
Read 10 tweets
Oct 3
🧵The Russian defeat in #Kharkiv Oblast and #Lyman, combined with the #Kremlin’s failure to conduct partial mobilization effectively and fairly are fundamentally changing the Russian information space. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct2
2/ #Kremlin-sponsored media & Russian milbloggers – a prominent Telegram community composed of Russian war correspondents, former proxy officials, & nationalists – are grieving the loss of #Lyman while simultaneously criticizing the bureaucratic failures of partial mobilization.
3/ #Kremlin sources and milbloggers are attributing the defeat around #Lyman and #Kharkiv Oblast to Russian military failures to properly supply and reinforce Russian forces in northern #Donbas and complaining about the lack of transparency regarding the progress of the war.
Read 14 tweets
Oct 3
Tonight's campaign assessment from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats focuses on dramatic changes in the #Russian information space following the Russian defeat around #Lyman and in Kharkiv Oblast and amid the failures of Russia’s partial mobilization. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct2
2/ Ukrainian forces made continued gains around #Lyman, #Donetsk Oblast, and have broken through Russian defensive positions in northeastern #Kherson Oblast. Those developments are summarized briefly and will be covered in more detail tomorrow when more confirmation is available.
3/ Key inflections in ongoing military operations on October 2 are detailed below.
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct2
Read 11 tweets
Oct 2
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Russian military leadership is continuing to compromise future reconstitution of the force by prioritizing the immediate mobilization of as many bodies as possible for ongoing fighting in #Ukraine. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

The practice of prematurely assigning cadets to reserve regiments will likely further degrade already-poor command structures. /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

Underprepared cadets will be forced into leadership roles with insufficient training and little or no professional experience. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Read 4 tweets
Oct 2
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian forces liberated #Lyman on October 1. /1
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources indicated that the BARS-13 detachment that was holding the Russian defensive line in #Drobysheve, just northwest of #Lyman, withdrew to #Kreminna (about 25km east of Lyman). /2
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian sources discussed Ukrainian attacks north of #Lyman around #Torske, #Terny, and #Yampilske, suggesting that Ukrainian troops are continuing efforts to take settlements north of Lyman as well. /3
isw.pub/RusCampaignOct1
Read 6 tweets

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