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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 12

@criticalthreats

#Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target #Russian military, technical, and logistics assets and concentration areas in #Kherson Oblast. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… 1/4

#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian troops continued ground attacks in northern and western #Kherson Oblast. 2/4

#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensives east of the #Oskil River and in the direction of Kreminna-Svatove. 3/4

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 11

@criticalthreats

The concentration of security forces in #Kurdistan Province could exacerbate #Iranian security forces’ bandwidth issues—a key vulnerability in the regime’s internal security apparatus. The latest from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/5

Simultaneous protests in the border areas and major cities strain these forces—a vulnerability that protesters and other anti-regime groups may seek to exploit. 2/5

Unobserved indications that the security forces are experiencing bandwidth issues include: 3/5

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 11

#IranProtests highlight how the regime has prepared itself to brutally crack down on its people. These protests also highlight the cracks in the regime’s security apparatus. A thread: 1/7 #مهسا_امینی #سنندج

The regime has optimized its internal security apparatus to preempt and violently suppress protests. The regime uses a three-pronged counter-protest strategy to achieve this effect. 2/7

The regime relies most heavily on force to suppress protests. It uses a cohesive and ideological network of military and paramilitary units to do so. This approach is currently on display in the regime’s brutal crackdown in #Sanandaj. 3/7

https://twitter.com/Sima_Sabet/status/1579862044735836160?s=20&t=XOhJy-UbNujwgvHGYG53Sw

Read 7 tweets

Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 11

@criticalthreats

NEW | #Russian forces conducted massive, coordinated missile strikes on over 20 #Ukrainian cities. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in #Donetsk Oblast on October 9 and 10.

#Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces have already committed mobilized men to #Kharkiv Oblast who have since told the Ukrainian forces that they did not receive any training prior to their deployment around September 15.

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 11

@TheStudyofWar

#Iranian security forces are brutally suppressing protestors in #Sanandaj, #Kurdistan Province. Here's what else you need to know today from CTP and @TheStudyofWar's Iran Crisis Update:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…

#سنندج #مهسا_امینی

Anti-regime protests occurred in at least 16 cities in 11 different provinces on October 10. Iranian security forces are using significantly violent and lethal means to suppress protests in #Sanandaj.

Protests in the Iranian heartland may be approaching the threshold identified in US military doctrine for “latent and incipient” insurgency. CTP has not yet observed clear indicators that the protest movement has crossed the threshold and isn't prepared to forecast that it will.

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Critical Threats

@criticalthreats

Oct 10

Anti-regime #protests occurred in at least 18 cities in 15 different provinces in #Iran on October 9. 1/4 #مهسا_امینی

criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…

Iranian leadership may have ordered the IRGC Ground Forces to support the protest crackdown directly. The IRGC Ground Forces would likely use extreme force. Its deployment would indicate that the regime is alarmed by the protests and considers them a serious security threat. 2/4

Iran has built a multilayered security apparatus of different military and paramilitary institutions to impose social control. The IRGC Ground Forces is the regime’s last line of defense against internal unrest and the most prominent security layer after the LEC and Basij. 3/4

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