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Oct 12

Our second thread on the Iranian state security services explores their structure and organization. Here is what you need to know as #Iran experiences its fourth consecutive week of protests. 1/13 #مهسا_امینی

https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1579936217545969664?s=20&t=UiIScRF-L0ZPQ1l7su0n3w

The regime has built a multilayered security apparatus of military and paramilitary units charged with social control. These units have varying levels of military and ideological training. They cooperate to manage different threats and repress protests. 2/13

The Law Enforcement Command (LEC) is the first layer of the regime’s internal defenses. It is the national police force and performs regular police missions while also controlling social unrest. 3/13

Read 13 tweets

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Oct 12

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#Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target #Russian military, technical, and logistics assets and concentration areas in #Kherson Oblast. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… 1/4

#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian troops continued ground attacks in northern and western #Kherson Oblast. 2/4

#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensives east of the #Oskil River and in the direction of Kreminna-Svatove. 3/4

Read 4 tweets

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Oct 11

@criticalthreats

The concentration of security forces in #Kurdistan Province could exacerbate #Iranian security forces’ bandwidth issues—a key vulnerability in the regime’s internal security apparatus. The latest from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/5

Simultaneous protests in the border areas and major cities strain these forces—a vulnerability that protesters and other anti-regime groups may seek to exploit. 2/5

Unobserved indications that the security forces are experiencing bandwidth issues include: 3/5

Read 5 tweets

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Oct 11

#IranProtests highlight how the regime has prepared itself to brutally crack down on its people. These protests also highlight the cracks in the regime’s security apparatus. A thread: 1/7 #مهسا_امینی #سنندج

The regime has optimized its internal security apparatus to preempt and violently suppress protests. The regime uses a three-pronged counter-protest strategy to achieve this effect. 2/7

The regime relies most heavily on force to suppress protests. It uses a cohesive and ideological network of military and paramilitary units to do so. This approach is currently on display in the regime’s brutal crackdown in #Sanandaj. 3/7

https://twitter.com/Sima_Sabet/status/1579862044735836160?s=20&t=XOhJy-UbNujwgvHGYG53Sw

Read 7 tweets

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Oct 11

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NEW | #Russian forces conducted massive, coordinated missile strikes on over 20 #Ukrainian cities. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in #Donetsk Oblast on October 9 and 10.

#Ukrainian military officials noted that Russian forces have already committed mobilized men to #Kharkiv Oblast who have since told the Ukrainian forces that they did not receive any training prior to their deployment around September 15.

Read 4 tweets

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Oct 10

@criticalthreats

NEW | The attack on the #Kerch Strait Bridge is generating direct criticism of #Russian President Vladimir Putin and the #Kremlin from the Russian pro-war nationalist community. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…

#Ukrainian forces continued to advance east of the #Oskil River in the direction of #Luhansk Oblast and have entered #Stel’makhivka. Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on #Burdaka on the #Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border, and #Terny northeast of #Lyman.

#Russian sources reported that Russian forces attempted to attack in the direction of #Ternovi Pody. #Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued to target newly liberated settlements in northern #Kherson Oblast with artillery, MLRS, and aviation.

Read 4 tweets

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