CTP’s third thread on #Iran’s state security services discusses some of its vulnerabilities – an expansion on yesterday’s thread on the structure and organization of these security forces. 1/7
https://twitter.com/criticalthreats/status/1580294982082375680
The regime’s first major challenge is ensuring the ideological commitment and subordination of its security forces. The regime has seen dissent and defections among low-level security personnel in almost every major protest movement since 1979. 2/7
This dissent and defections have never been large-scale, but have alarmed the regime enough that they have developed increasingly ideological and well-trained forces, such as the LEC Special Units and elite Basij personnel, for protest suppression. 3/7
Using these elite forces introduces a vulnerability: limits on the security services’ bandwidth during mass unrest. The most ideological and trusted units cannot cover all of Iran during countrywide protests. These units are primarily concentrated in high-population areas. 4/7
The regime shuffles these forces to where they are needed most. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the regime sent forces from #Hamedan, #Yazd, and other locations to #Sanandaj, where the regime is conducting a brutal crackdown. 5/7
https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1579561797937664000
Simultaneous protests in Iran’s major cities and border regions strain the security forces. Iranian officials and media have indicated that the security personnel are already experiencing bandwidth issues, exhaustion, and low morale. 6/7
The resurgence of protests in locations where the regime has reduced its security presence may overwhelm the security apparatus and prevent it from being able to control countrywide demonstrations. 7/7
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