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Nov 4 10 tweets 3 min read
It's not quite the same this time, but I'm not sure if people have taken heed.
#market #analysis 11/4 (Friday)
So.....we just had a rate hike. A lot of earnings calls. A lot of stocks gapped down hard recently ( $META, $TWLO), and a few gapped up hard on nonsense ($ETSY). tradingview.com/x/bBW5ZyyK/ .
Only to then...continue....really weird scenarios? tradingview.com/x/csR2hPt2/
It doesn't make sense, to be honest. Now, the Muskrat is going to get all the hate he deserves, but the reality is he screwed up in a thousand ways. So I think this is going to play into a lot of social media concerns.
A lot of people want to leave twitter. Okay, sure, whatever - but...to where? I see no real solutions. I see garbage, everywhere. gph.is/217xISR?tc=1 . Social media is a dumpster fire and generally always was.
Anyway, where do we go from here? tradingview.com/x/F5dW559j/ Well, $SPY looks like it's ready to drop, BTC has turned a bit but is still overall bearish, and DXY dropped today because who the hell knows. I wouldn't hold my breath.
One theory was we fake rally through end of year, but I see the world's biggest warning sign, that we haven't had in a while. tradingview.com/x/l9womFdD/ . Fed budget is skyrocketing during inflation, and that's conflicting. So either the budget gets trimmed or inflation does.
I'll leave that part to the economics fundamental researchers, because I think that should tell people what's next.
Meanwhile, isn't it unsurprising when different TA methods intersect? tradingview.com/x/IHz29UCK/ Here's the hint for the traders: 200MA + Ichimoku cloud top. That's where decisions will be made, and it's easy to guess more down. Aggressively, even.

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More from @nap_trader

Oct 16
Gap down in progress
Cryptocurrency Analysis 9/16

I'm hours away from posting what is likely to occur shortly, where either BTC gaps down or BTC closes the gap. Probably by the time I post this. tradingview.com/x/EInvsVqj/
Unsurprisingly, Eth in in the same boat, about $10-15 above the gap pricing right now. But that's not really what matters here, overall. It's the same bear market, where people want to believe that bounces happen.
gph.is/2eF4NYZ?tc=1 . The reality however, is not so kind to people that are willing to look around.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 26
#Economics, what do we have going on? History lessons.
#Market #Analysis 9/25
A colleague of mine sent this today:
mishtalk.com/economics/stro… .
It even cites what I planned to cite below (Soros vs UK 1992), that's how hilarious this is. Clearly we're all on the same page. It was hot on my mind, as JPY said they were going to sell $USD to buy $JPY.
For a million reasons I intuitively knew this was silly. For one, why not print JPY? For two, why make an openly hostile action towards USD? Stupid. For #3, why not arbitrage your own currency? It's not like any country doesn't do that or hasn't.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 18
Good data, Bad data
global market #analysis 9/18
Reminder #1, we're still in #yield #inversion on the #US10Y and #US02Y bonds, which won't be changing any time soon. tradingview.com/x/UweZFYmE/
I still am guessing a 1% #rate #hike (100bps) but it could be 0.75% again, who knows. Probably that or larger because I bet the fed will want more breathing room. At some point I'll write on inflation and how people get it wrong, but now's not the time.
Don't forget you still have the bad form of influencers out there trying to just get follows all day, tells you we haven't hit bottom or anywhere near - because he's not telling people how to sell.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 17
1/ Expanding the Macro - a Treatise on what I see
#macro #market analysis 9/17
So first thing I want to point out, is the divergence between wishful @Binance $BTC weekend price and #CME's. Just to knock out crypto quickly - here's the weekend divergence. tradingview.com/x/usR93lCv/
2/ There's 3 ways it goes, but in *decreasing* order of likeliness. 1: we return to that gap to then pick a direction, 2: we tap it for a second upon open tomorrow (18 hours from now) and then continue upwards, or 3: we leave a gap that we fill on 9/21 #FOMC
3/ is $ETH in the same boat? You bet. So that's #crypto for the weekend, for anyone following. Lots of caveats can be applied here to add additional analysis tradingview.com/x/ipsp0FQs/
Read 16 tweets
Sep 16
Friday Fudgery
#Cryptocurrency Market / #Bitcoin Market analysis 9/16
I'm using the words lightly there, but I hope it's quite clear. As it's a quadruple witching friday, I watched trades basically evaporate. It was kind of a mess.
$SPY went up and down all day, thus $BTC as well. tradingview.com/x/Jt1R0JzH/ Notice distinctly how the $BTC responses are slower, because that's what I want to call attention to.
Remember when I talked about billions in liquidity exiting the market faster than sand falls through someone's hand? This is the result. There's nobody trading crypto and so the prices can't really move.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 16
Where do we go? Down, of course.
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/15
So, our big bearish channel trend got confirmed. tradingview.com/x/mLp5u6eS/ Nothing has changed outside of that, really.
#CPI is slightly bearish #PPI is bearish, #quadruple witching is tomorrow. Looks like people dumped close to a billion dollars of $BTC a couple days ago, and over 5 billion since August.
Read 8 tweets

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