Thread by @JBelcourt73

For months now I have been saying the #Ukrainians would use a bite and hold strategy taking bits here and there until the Russian Army collapsed. Ahh, feels good to be right. The Russian's have lost the Battle of Kherson, though mopping up will likely take some days as stragglers

deserters and dead enders get captured, pocketed and annihilated. I always dismissed the idea that Ukraine would launch sweeping blitzkrieg style armored thrusts. That kind of army requires years and a lot of safe space to build, things Ukraine did not have. Ukraine used what she

have and what she was given masterfully. Now granted I am a nobody. Yet my line was the same as retired general officers (western) and even a few Russians. People with actual formal training (I never got past Spc-4 or bachelors) and educations that reach Ph.D level reading if not

formal degree awards because they had to know what history said was likely or thousands would die and battles would be lost. So what happened in #Kherson was not a bolt from the blue. It was absolutely predictable. Yet here we are anyway. I also predicted that #Putin would never

allow his army to leave the city while it still could. Dictators get wedded to cities as political objectives that make them focus points irrespective of any other tactical, operational or strategic utility they might have. Think Stalingrad. Putin though Kherson would be his

Stalingrad, as a #Russian I am sure he thought he would be the victor recreating a glorious triumph. He should have read more history and remembered the warning given to Croesus by the Oracle of Delphi. Or maybe he should have done a deep read on Cannae. The Roman Army there was

on the wrong side of the river and ended up enveloped. In this case artillery provided the envelopment. The result however was the same: hubris turned into a battle of annihilation. Any Russian's still in Kherson are dead, captured or soon to be's... The bridge is down, there

are no more ferries and we just saw the biggest defeat on European soil since the fall of Berlin. Is the war over? Not by a long shot, vast swaths of #Ukraine remain occupied. What is over is any chance the Russian's had of forcing a negotiated settlement by conventional means.

Don't be surprised if you see a line of busses rolling into Red Square, there are a lot of people who need to go under them if Putin is too survive. Thing is, they might refuse to go in which case only one is need. Putin may (hopefully) come face to face with an American maxim

about where the buck stops. For the rest of us, it is time to celebrate at least a little. Ukrainian valor backed by western kit has ended the fear of a Russian Imperial resurgence in Europe. Political leaders all over the free World including

@JohnBoozman, @SenTomCotton, and @RepFrenchHill can show their voters what all the money was for. @POTUS can rightly take a bow, he was right to back Ukraine. Most of all however the Ukrainian people deserve our standing ovation. All the kit in the world, all the money in the

world is meaningless unless the people on the ground are willing to put themselves between war's desolation and the people and things they hold dear. So, wherever you are, whatever you are drinking, raise a toast to Ukraine and the magnificent people she has produced.

hip-hip hooray! Raise a toast to @ZelenskyyUa and @CinC_AFU the war winning combo hip-hip hooray! Raise a toast to the Ukrainian Armed forces who from, "Russian Warship go jump on a dick", through the hell of #Sievierodonetsk and #Bakhmut, to dipping their feet in the

#Dnipro have refused to be beaten hip-hip hooray! If you have donated to a worthwhile charity like @MriyaAid, @U24_gov_ua, @UkraineAidOps, @3xR_team or @saintjavelin... If you have bashed vatniks as a #FELLA and member of #NAFO and donated to the @georgian_legion then allow

yourself a bit of a smile. Our part is small, but it is not meaningless. Now back to work, the war is not over. Sadly I wish it was. There are still more remembrance candles to be lighted going forward. Ukrainian voices that will be silenced because #RussiaIsATerroristState.

There are millions still in bondage, either trying to survive each day in the occupied areas, or shipped in to the interior of Russia often as children and always against their will and the laws of war. Keep following trusted sources like @MriyaReport, @LanguageIearner,

@ChuckPfarrer, @isw and others as the war enters its next phase. Keep the faith with Ukraine. #Ukraineiswinning, #RussiaIsLosing so until Ukraine Wins On Ukraine's Terms: Slava Ukraini! @mfa_russia <--- still losing and what busses doing?

@threadreaderapp unroll please