Thread by @TheStudyofWar

NEW: #Russia is attempting to capitalize on the Western desire for negotiations to create a dynamic in which Western officials feel pressed to make preemptive concessions to lure Russia to the negotiating table.

Our latest on #Ukraine w/@criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar120222

2/ #Putin held an hour-long telephone conversation with German Chancellor Olaf #Scholz on December 2 in which he falsely stated that Western financial and military aid to Ukraine creates a situation in which the Ukrainian government outright rejects talks between Moscow and Kyiv.

3/ #Putin called upon #Scholz to reconsider Germany’s approach regarding developments in #Ukraine to which Scholz stated that any diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine must include the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.

4/ The Putin-Scholz call corresponded with a diplomatic overture from US President Joe Biden on December 1 in which Biden stated that he is prepared to speak with #Putin if the Russian president is looking for a way to end the war but that he has no immediate plans to do so.

5/ Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry #Peskov responded to Biden’s comments on December 2 stating that Biden seems to be demanding the removal of Russian forces from #Ukraine as a precondition for negotiations and said that the “special military operation” would continue.

6/ #Peskov added that America’s reluctance to recognize #Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories significantly complicates the search for common ground in possible negotiations.

7/ Putin’s and Peskov’s statements follow Russian Foreign Minister Sergei #Lavrov’s comments in the context of a meeting of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe repeating the same demand the Kremlin made of the US and NATO before the February 24 invasion.

8/ @TheStudyofWar has previously and repeatedly assessed that Vladimir #Putin’s rhetoric indicates that he is not interested in negotiating seriously with #Ukraine and retains maximalist objectives for the war.

9/ It is more likely that #Putin, #Lavrov, and #Peskov made these statements regarding negotiations to create a perception among Western officials that #Russia needs to be lured to negotiate.

10/ The #Kremlin likely intends to create a dynamic in which Western officials offer #Russia preemptive concessions in hopes of convincing Russia to enter negotiations without requiring significant preliminary concessions of Russia in return.

11/ Putin’s, Lavrov’s, and Peskov’s statements highlight what some of those desired preemptive concessions may be: decreased Western aid to Ukraine, recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, and restrictions on NATO and Western military actions in Europe.

12/ The #Kremlin has also kept its language about the subject of negotiations vague, likely to convince Western officials to begin negotiation processes without a clear definition of whether negotiations are in pursuit of a ceasefire, a peace process, or a final peace agreement.

13/ #Russia would benefit from a temporary agreement with #Ukraine & Western countries that creates a pause in hostilities that allows Russia to strengthen its armed forces for future military operations in pursuit of maximalist goals in Ukraine.

See: isw.pub/CeasefireRisks…

14/ #Putin has shown little interest in such a ceasefire, however, and the #Kremlin continues to make demands that are tantamount to full Western surrender, suggesting that Putin remains focused on pursuing military victory.

15/ Western leaders have rebuffed the #Kremlin’s efforts and reaffirmed their support for #Ukraine. Biden and French President Emmanuel #Macron in a joint press conference on December 1 reiterated their commitment to support Ukraine in its war against #Russia.

16/ Biden’s and Macron’s joint show of support for #Ukraine and Scholz’s insistence on the complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine indicate that France, Germany, and the US are not prepared to offer Russia significant preemptive concessions at this time.

17/ Biden added that “the idea that Putin is ever going to defeat Ukraine is beyond comprehension."

18/ Nevertheless, #Russia may be trying to use its coordinated missile-strike campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure and the associated humanitarian situation in #Ukraine to add pressure on Western officials to offer preemptive concessions.

More here: isw.pub/UkrWar120222