NEW GIF | Anti-#alShabaab forces captured #AdanYabal, the final district capital under al Shabaab–control in Middle Shabelle, on December 5. View the progress of anti-al Shabaab forces in central #Somalia throughout 2022 below. (1/10)
Somali forces are contesting more area in central Somalia than they have since an African Union–led offensive in the mid-2010s. Somali officials and forces in Hirshabelle State have primarily led the 2022 offensive. (2/10) Image
The Somali government began the offensive in June with the support of local clan militia that rebelled against al Shabaab for assassinating a prominent clan elder. criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-… (3/10)
The offensive accelerated and expanded in August and September after al Shabaab retaliatory attacks reinvigorated the Somali government and drew more clan militia into the fight. criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-… (4/10)
#AlShabaab has continued to retaliate against the government with high-visibility attacks in #Mogadishu and central Somalia throughout the offensive. criticalthreats.org/briefs/al-qaed… (5/10)
Al Shabaab has also tried to maintain control over the population in central Somalia by forcibly relocating civilians in towns it abandons and appointing officials with clan ties to the rebelling clans. caasimada.net/al-shabaab-oo-… (6/10)
The Somali government’s international partners have helped support the offensive. The US has targeted al Shabaab financial and arms smuggling networks with new rounds of sanctions. The US and Turkey also provided drone support in central Somalia. africom.mil/pressrelease/3… (7/10)
The Somali government has tried to expand this offensive to South West and Galmudug States with limited success. Efforts to coordinate local and national forces were short-lived, and al Shabaab undid the small gains made during these operations. (8/10)
There are still several obstacles that could make these gains short-lived. 1. Continued security breaches in #Mogadishu undermine the support and success of more distant offensives. criticalthreats.org/briefs/al-qaed… (9/10)
2. The mobilization of clan militia could create clan-based violence and extortion that challenge stability. 3. Al Shabaab is resilient and will continue to influence recently liberated areas as long as it maintains havens in Galmudug State. criticalthreats.org/analysis/al-sh… (10/10)

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More from @criticalthreats

Dec 8
NEW | #Russian President Vladimir #Putin is setting conditions for a protracted war of conquest in #Ukraine. Read today’s update from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… (1/4) Image
#Russian forces are likely increasing the pace of their counterattacks in eastern #Kharkiv and western #Luhansk Oblast. (2/4) Image
#Russian forces continued offensive operations in the #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka-#Donetsk City areas. (3/4) Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 8
NEW | Anti-regime strikes and demonstrations sustained momentum on December 7 as nation-wide calls to protest entered their third and final day. Read the new update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… (1/6) Image
Regime officials and entities defended ongoing internet restrictions as a means to quell unrest on December 7. (2/6)
At least 19 protests took place in 13 cities across nine provinces on December 7. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Dec 7
Countrywide strikes continued throughout #Iran. Protest turnout decreased significantly, however, possibly due to divisions and poor planning in the protest movement. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/4
Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei met with Supreme Cultural Revolution Council, possibly to discuss the morality patrol and mandatory hijab law. 2/4
At least 13 protests took place in five cities across five provinces. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Dec 6
Protest activity and strikes in #Iran increased significantly on December 5, in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizations for countrywide demonstrations until December 7. Read CTP and @TheStudyofWar’s daily Iran Update here:

criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… Image
At least 29 protests took place in 18 cities across 16 provinces on December 5. #IranProtests2022
Social media users reported significant countrywide strikes in 73 cities across 27 provinces, although this number is almost certainly higher. Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 5
Western media inaccurately reported that the #Iranian regime abolished its morality patrol on December 4. The regime has not made such a concession. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/5
Western outlets misinterpreted remarks from Prosecutor General Mohammad Javad Montazeri on December 3. 2/5
Montazeri noted in response to a journalist’s question that security forces have reduced morality patrols in recent months—a statement that some Western media has mistakenly framed as confirmation that the regime abolished the patrols. 3/5
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Dec 5
#Ukrainian officials have indicated that Ukrainian forces will continue counteroffensive operations over the upcoming winter. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. 1/4 criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the directions of #Kreminna and #Svatove. 2/4
#Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka. 3/4
Read 4 tweets

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