Thread by @criticalthreats

NEW GIF | Anti-#alShabaab forces captured #AdanYabal, the final district capital under al Shabaab–control in Middle Shabelle, on December 5. View the progress of anti-al Shabaab forces in central #Somalia throughout 2022 below. (1/10)

Somali forces are contesting more area in central Somalia than they have since an African Union–led offensive in the mid-2010s. Somali officials and forces in Hirshabelle State have primarily led the 2022 offensive. (2/10)

The Somali government began the offensive in June with the support of local clan militia that rebelled against al Shabaab for assassinating a prominent clan elder. criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-… (3/10)

The offensive accelerated and expanded in August and September after al Shabaab retaliatory attacks reinvigorated the Somali government and drew more clan militia into the fight. criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-… (4/10)

#AlShabaab has continued to retaliate against the government with high-visibility attacks in #Mogadishu and central Somalia throughout the offensive. criticalthreats.org/briefs/al-qaed… (5/10)

Al Shabaab has also tried to maintain control over the population in central Somalia by forcibly relocating civilians in towns it abandons and appointing officials with clan ties to the rebelling clans. caasimada.net/al-shabaab-oo-… (6/10)

The Somali government’s international partners have helped support the offensive. The US has targeted al Shabaab financial and arms smuggling networks with new rounds of sanctions. The US and Turkey also provided drone support in central Somalia. africom.mil/pressrelease/3… (7/10)

The Somali government has tried to expand this offensive to South West and Galmudug States with limited success. Efforts to coordinate local and national forces were short-lived, and al Shabaab undid the small gains made during these operations.

https://twitter.com/GaroweOnline/status/1597536168304062465

(8/10)

There are still several obstacles that could make these gains short-lived. 1. Continued security breaches in #Mogadishu undermine the support and success of more distant offensives. criticalthreats.org/briefs/al-qaed… (9/10)

2. The mobilization of clan militia could create clan-based violence and extortion that challenge stability. 3. Al Shabaab is resilient and will continue to influence recently liberated areas as long as it maintains havens in Galmudug State. criticalthreats.org/analysis/al-sh… (10/10)