Hello Friday and the week to date
$TNX +2.24%
$HYG -1.1%
$TLT -1.45%

$GOLD +1.21%
$USD -0.4%
$GBP +0.08%

$DAX +1.06%
$SSEC +0.92%
$SPX +0.1%
$NIKK -0.54%

$SILVER +1.38%
$COPPER +0.26%
#bitcoin -0.89%
$WTIC -1.46%
$NATGAS -8.43%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia ended the year on a ↗️🎵

$NIKK 26094 unch
$SSEC 3089 +0.5%
$TWII 14138 +0.35%
$HSI 19781 +0.2%
$KOSPI 🥳
$IDX 6851 -0.15%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7039 +0.25%

India ↘️
$BSE 60841 -0.5%
Europe ↘️ into year end

$DAX 13963 -0.75%
$FTSE 7480 -0.45%
$CAC 6529 -0.7%
$AEX 695 -0.9%
$IBEX 8265 -0.65%
$MIB 23906 -0.65%
$SMI 10810 -0.45%
$MOEX 2144 -0.15%

$VSTOXX 20.28

$DAX range = 13718 - 14254 ♉️
🇺🇸 futures also ↘️ after an ⬆️⬇️↔️ week

$ES 3839 -0.3% #JPM 🐳📌
$NQ 10912 -0.35%
$RTY 1762 -0.1%

$VIX 21.88 🔺

$SPX range = 3742 - 3916 ♉️
$COMPQ range = 10126 - 10858 🐻
$IWM range = 169 - 177 ♉️
$VIX range = 19.25 - 24.33 🐻
GOLD and metals ↔️

$GOLD 1826 unch
$SILVER 24.168 -0.35%
$COPPER 3.848 +0.6%
$PLAT 1082 +1.6%
$PALL 1797 -1.05%
$ALI 2420 +0.6%
$ZINC 3012 +0.95%

$GVZ 16.18

$GOLD range = 1800 - 185 ♉️
$SILVER range = 23.52 - 24.99 ♉️
$COPPER range = 3.75 - 3.90 ♉️
Hydrocarbons ↔️

$WTIC 78.42 +0.05%
$BRENT 83.61 +0.2%
$GASO 2.389 +0.5%
$NATGAS 4.537 -0.5%

$OVX 42.60 🔻

$WTIC range = 76.36 - 82.11 ↔️
$NATGAS range = 4.01 - 5.81 🐻
$DBC range = 23.51 - 25.05 ♉️
Grains mostly ↗️

$WHEAT 774 unch
$CORN 680 +0.15%
$SOYB 1530 +0.9%
$SUGAR 20.21 -0.4%

$COFFEE ☕️ 171.95 +1.15%

$DBA range = 19.81 - 20.28 ♉️
$USD ↘️ and decidedly 🐻

$EUR 1.068 +0.18%
$GBP 1.204 -0.12%
$AUD 0.68 +0.33%
$USD 103.46 -0.12% ⬅️
$USDJPY 131.78 -0.93%
$USDCHF 0.923 -0.04%
$USDCAD 1.352 -0.16%
$USDCNY 6.899 -0.93%

#FX vol 10.54

$USD range = 103.3 - 104.52 🐻
$GBP range = 1.196 - 1.240 ♉️
#Cryptocurrencies

$BTC 16496 -0.85%
$ETH 1191 -0.85%

#Bitcoin range = 16192 - 17632 🐻
UST yields ↗️ across the curve
10/2s to -54 bps
10Y3M to -57 bps

MOVE 120.25 🛗

$TNX range = 3.61 - 3.93 ♉️
$TLT range = 98.94 - 105.22 ↔️ to 🐻

Global 10Ys
UST 3.854
GILT 3.672
BUND 2.509
ITA 4.672
JPN 0.421
AUS 4.06
CAN 3.284
Apparently, I am not the only one seeking 🏡 from this 💩 ⚡️ of stock/bond market in a high yielding money market account

The Reverse Repo balance has increased by 4.15% this week alone!

That's a 💦 drain folks

Contemplate that into 🥳 and have a super profitable 💰 day! Image

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More from @tdarling1

Jan 2
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way 🧵

1> Fed, Treasury, and big market players (reverse repo) who are draining liquidity from the markets will make for a messy start for risk assets to start the new year.

This coincides with 🥐🪟 of weakness into Jan 10.

2> Cheap Russian oil (less than $60/B) is being directed to our most important manufacturing ‘partners' (China and India).

Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.

wsj.com/articles/russi…
Read 7 tweets
Jan 2
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review 🧵
1/14

Much will be written about 2022 full-year performance, so let’s take a look at the last 3 months of the year to see if we can discern anything from a price momentum perspective.

(T) = Trend = 3-month price momentum
2/14

The $USD -7.86% peaked in September, providing much needed relief for risk assets around the world.

Chart: $USD -2.48% in December sits at critical trend line support with all major trend levels in bearish territory.

A close below 102 opens up 99. Mean revert or die. Image
3/14

After a modest pull-back in November, the $UST10Y resumed its upward trajectory in December, rising +20 bps to 3.88%.

Chart: $UST10Y - If you believe BOTH growth and inflation are slowing, then this thing needs to put in a big lower higher between here and 3.977%. Image
Read 14 tweets
Jan 1
Self assessment 🧵
1/15

New Year’s is the perfect time for some self reflection and assessment of my performance relative to my investing goal #5Real

#5Real = earning +5% AFTER inflation

So, how did I do?
2/15

I-Bonds +8.2%
Cash Accounts +3.1%
IRA Trend (long only) -2.97%
All Weather -5.76%
Trading account -6.39%
Vol HF allocation -6.54
IRA Mean Reversion -8.91%
401K -12.29%
3/15

No matter how you slice it, I came up well short of my goals

I lost money

I take absolutely zero solace in having outperformed the $SPX or $TLT

Yeh, it was a hard year. But I can do better.
Much better.

So, what did I learn this year to make me better at this game?
Read 15 tweets
Dec 11, 2022
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

#CPI Preview
1/10

One 🤡 calls it #macrotourism, but #CPI and #FOMC policy response are the single most important issues to macro investors today.

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10

At his Brookings Institute speech at the end of November, Powell broke core #inflation into 3 components:

a) goods inflation
b) housing services inflation
c) services, ex-housing = wages
2a/10

Goods inflation is clearly coming down along with inputs into that equation.

$COOPER +10.65% in November is nonetheless -13% YTD
Read 23 tweets
Dec 9, 2022
Hello Friday and the week to date

$USD +0.25%
$GBP -0.41%
$GOLD -0.48%

$TLT +1.94%
$TNX -0.43%
$HYG -0.69%

$SSEC +1.62%
$NIKK +0.44%
$DAX -1.82%
$SPX -2.65%

$COPPER +0.78%
#Bitcoin +0.77%
$SILVER +0.00%
$DBA -1.01%
$NATGAS -5.1%
$WTIC -10.65%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closes the week on an ↗️🎵

$NIKK 27901 +1.2%
$SSEC 3207 +0.3%
$TWII 14705 +1.05%
$HSI 19901 +2.3%
$KOSPI 2389 +0.76%
$IDX 6715 -1.3% 🇮🇩

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7213 +0.55%

India ↘️
$BSE 61977 -0.95%
Europe trading ↔️

$DAX 14295 +0.2%
$FTSE 7476 +0.05%
$CAC 6646 unch
$AEX 722 +0.2%
$IBEX 8243 +0.2%
$MIB 24203 unch
$SMI 11022 +0.15%
$MOEX 2170 -0.2%

$VSTOXX 21.78

$DAX range = 14094 - 14576 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Nov 20, 2022
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review
11/20/2022

🧵 1/7

#Recession cometh
Are you positioned accordingly?

Chart: Conference Board Leading Economic Index -3.2% over the past 6 months conference-board.org/topics/us-lead…
1a/7

The 10Y3M treasury spread, as a standalone indicator, has predicted recession with 98% accuracy.

Chart: 10Y3M Treasury Spread to -52 bps
1b/7

According to this Richmond Fed article, when both the LEI and 10Y3M are flashing #recession, there is a 99% chance of recession ahead.

richmondfed.org/publications/r…

Chart: Recession Indicators
Read 12 tweets

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