Ted Darling Profile picture
Jan 2 14 tweets 5 min read
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review 🧵
1/14

Much will be written about 2022 full-year performance, so let’s take a look at the last 3 months of the year to see if we can discern anything from a price momentum perspective.

(T) = Trend = 3-month price momentum
2/14

The $USD -7.86% peaked in September, providing much needed relief for risk assets around the world.

Chart: $USD -2.48% in December sits at critical trend line support with all major trend levels in bearish territory.

A close below 102 opens up 99. Mean revert or die.
3/14

After a modest pull-back in November, the $UST10Y resumed its upward trajectory in December, rising +20 bps to 3.88%.

Chart: $UST10Y - If you believe BOTH growth and inflation are slowing, then this thing needs to put in a big lower higher between here and 3.977%.
4/14

Metals led commodities higher in Q4:
$SILVER +26.27%
$PLAT +26.05%
$COPPER +11.73%
$GOLD +9.22%

Chart: SILVER +10.38% in December, bolstered by a weak $USD, which is the key to continuation or reversion.
5/14

Among hydrocarbons, it was a tale of two gases
$GASO +4.64$
$NATGAS -33.97%
$WTIC +0.97%

Chart: $NATGAS -35.5% in December alone, but still +19.84% YTD with implications for utility rates and industrial production.
6/14

Grains were a mixed bag in Q4

$SUGAR +13.22%
$SOYB +11.67%
$CORN +0.15%
$WHEAT -14.05%

Chart: $DBA +0.65% in Q4 reflects a composite of agriculture commodities, which are under control.
7/14

$SPX +7.08% outperformed both $IWM +5.72% and $COMPQ -6.77% in Q4.

Chart: $SPX -5.9% in December encountering serious overhead into the new year
8/14

Both the $DAX +14.93% and the $CAC +12.35% outperformed the $SPX in Q4

Chart: The $DAX gave back -3.29% in December as Europe surprised to the upside in Q4, even as the #ECB tightened into #recession
9/14

After a nasty -48%, 2-year drop, $HSI +14.86% in Q$ led Asia higher with $KOSPI +3.75%, $SSEC +2.14%, and $NIKK +0.61%

Chart: Did $HSI +6.37% in December sniff out the end of #CovidZero?
10/14

Among US Sectors only $XLY -9.33% was negative over (T) duration

Outperformance came from:
$XLE +21.45%
$XLI 15.55%
$XLB +14.07%
$XLF +12.65%
$XLV + 12.17%
$XLP +11.72%

Chart: $XLV -0.96% over the 4weeks (t) has held up better than other sectors. Can we get close > 140?
11/14

Value outperformed growth by a wide margin
$SPYV +12.76%
$SPYG +1.32%

Chart: $SPYV -3.88% pulled back less than $SPYG -7.59% in December. Looking for a close > 41 to stay long.
12/14

Low beta provided 190 bps in beta over high beta

$SPLV +10.5%
$SPHB +8.61%

Chart: $SPLV gave back -1.17% in December compared with $SPHB -8.55%
13/14

Momentum is favoring a weaker $USD and firmer yields, commodities, and equities with international indices outperforming $SPX.

Value leads growth by a wide margin and low beta is trumping high beta with energy, industrials, and materials at the top of the board.
14/14

Were it not for the massive liquidity drain (Fed balance sheet, TGA, and reverse repo) and the renewed rise in yields, a healthy dose of risk assets might be prescribed.

For now, the market messages are mixed.

A look ahead to Q1 2023 tomorrow.

Cheers! 🍻

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More from @tdarling1

Jan 3
Hello Tuesday and the first trading day of 2023!

Some unusual activity to start your new year with $USD, $GOLD, $VIX, and $ES all trading noticeably higher while $UST10Y drops like a stone.

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia mostly ↗️ to start the year

$NIKK holiday 🥳
$SSEC 3117 +0.9%
$TWII 14224 +0.6%
$HSI 20145 +1.85%
$KOSPI 2219 -0.3% ⬅️
$IDX 6889 +0.55%

Australia ↘️ hard
$ASX 6946 -1.3%

India ↗️
$BSE 61294 +0.2%
Europe 🚀

$DAX 14268 +1.4%
$FTSE 7605 +2.05%
$CAC 6674 +1.2%
$AEX 714 +1.75%
$IBEX 8445 +0.9%
$MIB 24534 +1.55%
$SMI 11001 +2.55%
$MOEX 2169 +0.7%

$VSTOXX 20.42

$DAX range = 13699 - 14153 ⬅️ ♉️ 🔝
Read 11 tweets
Jan 2
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way 🧵

1> Fed, Treasury, and big market players (reverse repo) who are draining liquidity from the markets will make for a messy start for risk assets to start the new year.

This coincides with 🥐🪟 of weakness into Jan 10.

2> Cheap Russian oil (less than $60/B) is being directed to our most important manufacturing ‘partners' (China and India).

Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.

wsj.com/articles/russi…
Read 7 tweets
Jan 1
Self assessment 🧵
1/15

New Year’s is the perfect time for some self reflection and assessment of my performance relative to my investing goal #5Real

#5Real = earning +5% AFTER inflation

So, how did I do?
2/15

I-Bonds +8.2%
Cash Accounts +3.1%
IRA Trend (long only) -2.97%
All Weather -5.76%
Trading account -6.39%
Vol HF allocation -6.54
IRA Mean Reversion -8.91%
401K -12.29%
3/15

No matter how you slice it, I came up well short of my goals

I lost money

I take absolutely zero solace in having outperformed the $SPX or $TLT

Yeh, it was a hard year. But I can do better.
Much better.

So, what did I learn this year to make me better at this game?
Read 15 tweets
Dec 30, 2022
Hello Friday and the week to date
$TNX +2.24%
$HYG -1.1%
$TLT -1.45%

$GOLD +1.21%
$USD -0.4%
$GBP +0.08%

$DAX +1.06%
$SSEC +0.92%
$SPX +0.1%
$NIKK -0.54%

$SILVER +1.38%
$COPPER +0.26%
#bitcoin -0.89%
$WTIC -1.46%
$NATGAS -8.43%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia ended the year on a ↗️🎵

$NIKK 26094 unch
$SSEC 3089 +0.5%
$TWII 14138 +0.35%
$HSI 19781 +0.2%
$KOSPI 🥳
$IDX 6851 -0.15%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7039 +0.25%

India ↘️
$BSE 60841 -0.5%
Europe ↘️ into year end

$DAX 13963 -0.75%
$FTSE 7480 -0.45%
$CAC 6529 -0.7%
$AEX 695 -0.9%
$IBEX 8265 -0.65%
$MIB 23906 -0.65%
$SMI 10810 -0.45%
$MOEX 2144 -0.15%

$VSTOXX 20.28

$DAX range = 13718 - 14254 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Dec 11, 2022
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

#CPI Preview
1/10

One 🤡 calls it #macrotourism, but #CPI and #FOMC policy response are the single most important issues to macro investors today.

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10

At his Brookings Institute speech at the end of November, Powell broke core #inflation into 3 components:

a) goods inflation
b) housing services inflation
c) services, ex-housing = wages
2a/10

Goods inflation is clearly coming down along with inputs into that equation.

$COOPER +10.65% in November is nonetheless -13% YTD
Read 23 tweets
Dec 9, 2022
Hello Friday and the week to date

$USD +0.25%
$GBP -0.41%
$GOLD -0.48%

$TLT +1.94%
$TNX -0.43%
$HYG -0.69%

$SSEC +1.62%
$NIKK +0.44%
$DAX -1.82%
$SPX -2.65%

$COPPER +0.78%
#Bitcoin +0.77%
$SILVER +0.00%
$DBA -1.01%
$NATGAS -5.1%
$WTIC -10.65%

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closes the week on an ↗️🎵

$NIKK 27901 +1.2%
$SSEC 3207 +0.3%
$TWII 14705 +1.05%
$HSI 19901 +2.3%
$KOSPI 2389 +0.76%
$IDX 6715 -1.3% 🇮🇩

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7213 +0.55%

India ↘️
$BSE 61977 -0.95%
Europe trading ↔️

$DAX 14295 +0.2%
$FTSE 7476 +0.05%
$CAC 6646 unch
$AEX 722 +0.2%
$IBEX 8243 +0.2%
$MIB 24203 unch
$SMI 11022 +0.15%
$MOEX 2170 -0.2%

$VSTOXX 21.78

$DAX range = 14094 - 14576 ♉️
Read 11 tweets

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