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Cycle Bottom Profile picture
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Jan 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Understanding balance sheet liquidity runways from cashflow cycle lows is key to selecting the multi baggers...

$BTU 80c to >$40 post buy backs & dividends kicking in >30x

$RIG 60c to >$15 >20x due to massive operating cashflow build up through 2026, debt duration push out etc
$BTU 2020 operating CF compared to 2023 > 15x

$RIG 2021 operating CF compared to 2026 > 6x
We purchased both at near cycle lows in 2H 2020.

We are replicating those themes in 2023 in:

#bitcoin miners

#preciousmetal stocks

Selected #cyclical low themes
Our old followers should recall, our new followers should do some back reading

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More from @BULLReturns

Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Dec 10, 2022
As several #uranium stock fall through 24 month lows, many on twitter will have turned negative on the whole thesis. Whereas a few of these will provide us line of sight for 8x returns, we would be remiss not to deploy. These will triple over 18 months & those who sold at lows...
....will reenter and believe in life changing returns again with <3x upside.

The fool and their money are easily separated in high volatility sectors where longer term (> 24 months) sitting is required.

#uranium
The definition of a #uranium fool:

- engages in fomo near up leg highs

- talks about holding for dividends in a sector where capital losses > 90%

- talks about life changing returns while selling near lows

- has no idea on project matrix with < $25 AISC at the lowest caps
Read 4 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Nov 29, 2022
$AEE AGM about to start, join and become enlightened. Tiris #uranium project cashflowing 2025, scaling production through 2027.
56mlb resource increase to 120mlbs at Tiris > $1.6bn NPV or $1.80 per share. WOW #Uranium $AEE #auraenergy
1600 holes drilled for expansionary resource and reserves = huge above expectation data incoming #uranium

$AEE
Read 5 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Nov 24, 2022
$AEE using only 20% of the old resource in the NPV (without #vanadium credits) = 600% increase in the NPV = $800m at $75 pricing Vs current cap $140m (excluding Swedish battery metals project) #uranium
$AEE ability to expand the resource at 10c per pound #uranium
$AEE 45% fixed operating costs, spread over 3-5mlbs Vs 1mlb boosts the scaling productivity materially pushing AISC lower #uranium
Read 5 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Nov 22, 2022
Thought of the day: Locating a 50 bagger for 2023 entry through 2026 exit, likely characteristics, down 95%+ from 2021 peak, volume growth +2-3x, selling price price +1-2x through 2026. Examples: commodity micro cap, a tech turnaround, a crypto token, a REIT or durable goods cap.
#bitcoin miners bottom incoming:

#Bitcoin 12.5k = -30% from here = -93-98.5% = +7-15x

#Bitcoin 10k = -50% from here = -95-99% from peak = +10-20x

#Bitcoin 5k = -75% from here = -97-99.9% from peak = +15-30x

#Survivability test in play, liquidity runway requirements
#REITs & Durable goods (#USHomebuilders) bottoming likely 2H 2023, where 12 month balance sheet liquidity is under pressure due to frozen credit markets (inability to refinance = elevated default risk)

Very Tight credit conditions = -70% move from here

Frozen Credit = -90% move
Read 5 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Nov 15, 2022
#Vietnam markets imploding due to excessive margin liquidations on top of excess corporate bond expiry in 2023 (in a period of frozen liquidity conditions). 3x Book valuations dropping to 0.2x have been compelling entry points in the past. We stepped into the Green stock.
The unique daily trading limits in #Vietnam are a 2 edged sword...they lock buyers out in an aggressive upswing and prevent sellers exiting on an aggressive drawdown. This creates excessive ranges in bull and bear markets - providing unique opportunities for those doing the...
#Vietnam Shopping list incoming:

<0.2x book = 10x returns over the next 5yrs
<95% from 18 months peaks

Balance sheet liquidity is sufficient to ride through 2023 frozen refinancing markets.
$TIG 2.3x trailing PE at the lows this morning, 50% net Liquid assets to cap, 0.43x bk
Read 7 tweets
Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Nov 11, 2022
Thought of the day: Fighting #commodity price tops will just result in 75% plus stockprice retracements, #cyclicality music always stops, grab a chair early to avoid serious regrets and portfolio destruction. Easy clue to follow, is 65-80% margins above cost curves are peakish.
Those #commodities that are currently near bottoming (0-20%) for the next up cycle 2H2023-2025....

#tin -65%
#ironore -66%
#nickel -60% (moving up)
#Lumber -72%
#zinc -40%
#HRCSteel -67%

Know where you are in the cycle....
1st Quartile candidates for the next cycle...
Read 8 tweets

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