Over the last years, we have actively speculated in #exploration sector.

Our approach has changed over time.
One of our strategies is to participate early on in discoveries.

πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡Tips on how to do it below.
Step #1: Stay up to date with exploration results announcements EVERY day.

For us #ASX and #TSX takes 10-20 min per day.
Success here comes down to:
β€’ Know what you look for e.g. 20m @ 3% Cu
β€’ Do not get distracted by noise
β€’ You get faster over time
β€’ Automate 😍
Step #1 cont.: Why EVERY day?

We missed the good announcements before. Most of the days nothing happens, but you do not want to miss the 200% move.

How to read announcements faster: equivest.capital/post/over-the-…
Step #2 Know the stats.

9/10 early discoveries that look significant turn out to be small discoveries or worse...pumps and dumps.

Recognising winners is the key!
Step #3: Stay in control of your own biases.

When the data arrives, which shows that discovery is likely to be small, it is time to book profits and move on.

Remember this will be a most likely case, significant discoveries are rare.
Step #4: Patience.

Most of the days there is not much exciting exploration news. You have to stay patient and motivated.

Take the opportunity to learn more about the sector as you scan trough the announcements.
Step #5: Book profits.

Finally, this is the most important one.

9/10 discoveries will end up being small. Remember the 9/10 rule. Book profits, especially in the ones that start to look smaller.

Most of the "discoveries" will have following trajectory.
Step #6: Hold the winners for the long term gain.
If you found this thread valuable:
1. Follow for more threads on exploration β†’ @equivestinvest

2. Check out #Geology101 for Investors course. Only content out there that links geology with investments insights. equivest.capital/geology-for-in…
Do not know how to spot winners? This thread may be useful:

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More from @equivestinvest

Jan 13
1/6 Most of the new #discovery announcements and good first holes ends up as a minor discovery.

How to spot significant discoveries as an investor?
2/6 Three steps to followπŸͺœ:

1) Study significant discoveries
2) Study the failed discoveries
2) Learn the essentials of geology

Let's dig in.
3/6 Do the following:
β€’ Select commodity of interest e.g. #copper #nickel #uranium #gold
β€’ Study top discoveries made in the last years
β€’ Look at announcements (grades, footprint, structures, geophysical anomalies etc.)
β€’ Put it into a system
Read 6 tweets
Jan 9
🧡The #nickel #exploration success rates by #ASX companies are better in 2022 than the commonly cited 1/1000.

We counted 53 exploration campaigns that focused on new exploration targets. No appraisal, resource drilling.

Of these, 70% were maiden exploration. Image
2/5
30% of the companies drilled historical discoveries/mines. Not suprisingly these yielded no significant results.

Maiden exploration: 15 found no mineralisation, 13 only occurence, but we also had 1 discovery. Yet to be confirmed as significant. Image
3/5
From the 53 projects only 5 drilled in the favourable tectonic setting and had quality geochemical/geophysical anomaly support.

These are the targets we should be drilling more! Results are still pending from #S2R and $ADD in this group. Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 31, 2022
What can we learn from $HUR $PANR $RECO. Geologists musings and personal opinions.

Best read with a glass of new years eve drink of your choice.
#oil #exploration
πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
2/24 CHAPTER 1: "Story of geologists greed for discovery."

I first heard about $HUR fractured basement prospect as a student at Aberdeen Univ. I went to an evening lecture where geologist, Rob Trice HUR CEO was laughed by industry for his idea of oil in the basement rocks.
3/24 He proved them wrong several years later by making Bln+ recoverable oil discovery.
Read 24 tweets
Dec 19, 2022
🧡28 significant #discovery announcements on #ASX this year so far.

Will Santa bring us more discoveries this year?

How many will turn significant over time?
2/5 If you wondering, we had no "significant discovery" announencements since the beginning of October.
3/5 How many of the announced discoveries will turn out to be really significant? We can already see from below graph that market thinks that most of the discovery announcements this year were minor discoveries.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 15, 2022
Over the past years, I have read 100s of exploration news releases (NRs).

How to read them efficiently?

Breaking down my technique πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
Tip #1: Headline - important or not?

I will only read NR if:

β€’ New discovery confirmed
β€’ Significant assay
β€’ New resource or bid
β€’ Company on my watchlist

This simple techniques allows you to only focus on most important news and filter the noise.
Tip #2: Scan through the highlights.

β€’ Does it still look positive?
β€’ Look for thick, high grade intervals or large step outs
β€’ Red flag: up to X% Cu
β€’ Red flag: grab/chip samples i.e. discovery not confirmed vertically

Quick note: Read only the first page!
Read 9 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
1/x Commonly asked question. What is a significant #mining #discovery? 🧡

In our book it is upper Tier 2, Tier 1 discovery.

Okay, how do these tiers actually work?
2/x
Tier 1 deposits have NPV greater than 1 Bln USD. Typical discount rate used is 8% i.e. NPV8

They are rare to find! See the graph below from BHP showing frequency distribution of copper discoveries between 1985-2003.
3/x
Tier 2 deposits have NPV of 200-1000 Mln USD.

They are also considered significant by many definitions.
Read 6 tweets

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