Hello there!
Nothing has really changed this night on the frontline and we are still waiting for real "new" good news from #Ramstein meeting...
2/ they are doing their comfy meeting... but we still haven't heard about anything new and really "big" !
#Ramstein
yesterday talks :
3/ Now in #Ramstein, US Secretary of Defense said: This is a crucial moment because #Russia is regrouping, recruiting & trying to re-equip. This isn't a moment to slow down. It's a time to dig deeper. 🇺🇦 people are watching us. Kremlin's watching us. & history is watching us.
ok
4/ but i guess this is "performative" talk as i said couple months ago, we only know about US help for the next couple of years. it could stop just after next prez election.
Putin is counting on such things. too little too slow will only help him achieving his Pyrrhus' victory
5/ Also.. to be frank, still missing a lot even right now in this "rampant" version of "help".
@oleksiireznikov “There r 3 priorities of Ukraine at #Ramstein … More AD / Weapons for the offensive operations (tanks, howitzers, ammo) Systematic ammo supplies & service & repair.."
6/ #Zelensky had a direct conf call will all partners at #Ramstein meeting.

There is one shot one opportunity... if i may say so.
#Ukraine️
7/ and Russian intel and spokesperson are expecting it to be that way... and count only on allies only "replenishing" the pre existing stock so at the end of the day they will still be able to "digest" it..
8/ & what is to be said about this right and several reports made that US CIA Director William Burns secretly visited Kyiv late last week
The Washington Post reports that this is how he briefed Zelensky on US data on Russia's possible military plans in the coming weeks & months.
9/ because with the steady war of attrition, and even if Ukr side is "only" losing 80 to 90 troops perd day (4 to 5 times injuries(diff from Russians side with more direct casualties), 360 more days like that would mean 32k dead & 130k wounded on top of existing ones..
10/ so i'm gonna say this again and again... slow pace and minimal increase in help is actually like Putin's croonies said, in favor of their effing plan..
& even if at the end of the day they will "win" nothing, Ukr could be really really crippled and with bad "frontiers".
11/ we are going to have the French decision about #Leclerc to #Ukraine in a couple hours now ! official!

and in the meantime :
(& real CAS for joint operations for christ sake !)
nypost.com/2023/01/19/dc-…
13/ ok ok then!!! seems that everybody final got back to their common senses !!
#F16 ! if come true than it was anticipated and would explain why Ukrainians where training JTAC in several countries in Europe couple months ago !!
14/ also we should not forget about very "basic" things but of real direct utility on the ground
like :vcounter battery radar !
here, from the man himself :
15/ direct example :
with the reported Ru losses & materials that have been destroyed today.
well let say i as i explained once, that we really could destroy 10 arty system/ day.. well before next Christmas they wouldn't have much left to do anything..
maybe 2 pieces/km..

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More from @HeliosRunner

Jan 20
1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on January 20, 2023
Several areas are under maximum pressure but Ru are having some minor success only in #Bakhmut area.

Good news for #AFU still at it around #Kreminna
#UkraineMap Image
2/ Ukrainian defenders have made a serious advance against the Russians in #Holykove #Голикове 92924
Gen staff confirms by "being shelled" - standard com

So now it's very interesting because they can really start to "flush out" Ru along the #Krasna River & start focusing also Image
3/ to the south.
Ukrainian are inside the #Kreminna perimeter and have entered the forest in diff areas to the west.
so we could "look" at something like that tonight.
but i could not guarantee the FEBA lines to be 100% accurate there..
#UkraineMap Image
Read 13 tweets
Jan 19
1/ just a quick message because i've seen a famous account out there yelling like a slaughtered pig that #Novoselivske #Новоселівське 92621
was totally under #Ukrainian control... but it does not make "sense" the way he spelled it!
for couple days i've seen direct evidence of
2/ massive evidence of use of TOS-1A Solntsepok - TOS-1 Buratino / TOS-1A Solntsepek 'flame thrower" and it was absolutely insane ! the entire village when hit was looking a pile of dirt being projected in the air!
so it's fair to say that russians are not there, but it's more a
3/ true no man's land a lot of the time, and only small units are going there sometimes to try to breach the other sides or try to poke them to see the reactions, but don't imagine an entire cie being there and enjoying hot tea in close houses.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 19
I double checked from diff sources and sounds correct to me (maybe some slightly modifications to make but the main actual package is there)
And more to come tomorrow #Ramstein
merci mr woodtable ;-)
ping @JKaarsbo @CedricMas @frog_of_war @OpexNews @NLwartracker @TrentTelenko
2/ new list of US help (update some known items)
Read 4 tweets
Jan 19
Hello There !
#Denmark officially donates the entirety of its SPH (french beast) Caesar - the armored 8x8 version to #Ukraine !
See! when you want, you can... and France never stop anyone to do what they want with their purchase. Image
2/ what is also very interesting is that if 15 other countries gives at least 20 SPH, then #Ukraine would "match" current firepower of Russia (in terms of this caliber/function) because you got to remember that basically a Caesar (or equivalent) needs about 3-6 shells to do what
3/ Russians can do using 2 systems & 30 shells at least.

so yep... really really good news here..
we just need a ton of ammo right now and much much more high précisions ones.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 18
1/ The #US is moving 155mm shells from its bases in #Israel and #South Korea, — The New York Times

According to the publication, at the moment, Washington has promised to transfer more than a million shells. In particular, about half of the 300,000 munitions in US warehouses in
2/ Israel have already been sent to #Europe for further transfer to Ukraine. which clearly indicates the real problem that #Ukraine artillery has been living lately and was noticed even by "wargogo" for last month..

Recently Ukrainians officials were reported that daily RU could
3/ use 20k shell while Ukraine only 5k. which more than far from being "optimum".
So of course US have explained they would ramp up the production x6 in 2023 but right now, it just indicates that both US & Europe are one more time late on a decisive subject.
1 million shell
Read 18 tweets
Jan 18
1/ More than half of all energy facilities damaged in Ukraine, – Prime Minister Shmyhal

According to him, about 160,000 infrastructure facilities and residential buildings also require restoration, and losses reach "hundreds of billions of dollars."
So... let's be clear : Image
2/ I hope that all the countries supporting #Ukraine have a long term plan so send a ton more of equipement like #Germany is doing with super generator, because if this war goes on for couple more years, Ukraine will "produce/work" only with real amount of necessary energy.
3/ maybe also @EU_Commission and @POTUS should come up with a real plan of sending international workers corps to Ukraine, with machines, to dig deep to bury some lines, to split in smaller pack all the "transformers" on diff site/ hide in some remote locations... etc
Read 5 tweets

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