Things suddenly start to look interesting. Finnish FM #Haavisto to hold presser on Finnish and Swedish #NATO-membership application in 15 minutes. Ping @patrikoksanen @Cornubot @AWollstad
@patrikoksanen @Cornubot @AWollstad Discussions have been made with Stoltenberg, Swedish FM Billström, and Turkish FM. No issues with Hungary, they assure us they won't be last to ratify us.
Discussions under tri-lateral format has gone well, but now Turkey is rather upset following demonstrations in Stockholm. Haavisto believe this will cause a delay of at least "weeks".
However, Finland will stick to plan to join NATO together with Sweden. This is important both from a NATO point of view - including operational planning - but also from a Finnish point of view as we are in extremely close defence cooperation with Sweden.
All countries that made defence commitments last year to Finland still stand by them, which is an important point.
Haavisto throws the ball to NATO and says if things aren't moving before #Vilnius in July, questions will be asked whether the Open Doors-policy is for real.
When asked about if Finland could change policy and go alone, answer was that "Somewhere in the back of the head we are obviously thinking about alternatives if someone is permanently blocked [...] but there's no plan B at this time."
Now #Sweden will hold a presser (start in 5 minutes) on the #NATO-application, sporting the PM, MoD, and FM. Considering Finnish FM #Haavisto said he had talked with his colleague, I sincerely hope the message is the same as we earlier saw from #Finland. regeringen.se/pressmeddeland…
Swedish PM reiterates importance to Swedish security of "#Ukraine winning the war".
He notes that both Finnish government and opposition has clearly today stated their intention of joining #NATO together with #Sweden. Says he understand the frustration among Finns with the process.
Sweden is "pretty close" to the point where they feel they have done what they have agreed to in order for Turkey to approve their application, and assume that they will be ratified.
It's difficult for me to say what exactly was the point of the press conference. It seems it was important to point out that several major Swedish media outlets had somehow managed to report the opposite of what the Finnish FM had said (that Finland won't go alone).
It also seems like an important point to make was that it is possible to support freedom of expression while still noting that some people and groups use this freedom to hurt Swedish interests and democratically taken decisions.
It is striking from a Finnish point of view that Sweden - and in particular the media - seems to lack a common language and understanding to discuss national security, national interests, and threats directed against these. Now there was a lot of "What do you mean with 'x' ?"

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More from @CorporalFrisk

Jan 22
So apparently we are now doing the "Actually, Germany is pretty good and this is all the evil Poles' and Britts' doing". I will disagree.
To begin with, yes, there is a some of truth to the fact that #Germany has done more when it comes to supporting #Ukraine then they get credit for. In particular on the air defence side of things, the Gepards and IRIS-T have made a real impact, to take the obvious example.
It's also correct that no *formal* request for transfer of #Leopard2 has been made, and that while many countries agree that "someone" should give Ukraine Leopards, significantly fewer are happy to provide theirs.
Read 13 tweets
Jan 21
#OSINT-wizard @emilkastehelmi in action in #Kokkola on today's #turpo-seminar. #Ukraine #säkpol Image
Discussing national security these days have a tendency to spark little joy, but it was a first-class event put on by @JanneJukkola and his team and I was truly happy to be part of this #turpo-seminaari on home turf - regardless of how it looks 😅! 📸 courtesy of the hosts Image
For those who missed yesterday's #turpo-seminaari, here's my talk (in Finnish) on how the countries in our neighbourhood react to the War in #Ukraine, and what changes #NATO membership will bring for #Finland. Thanks to @JanneJukkola for posting the clip!
Read 5 tweets
Dec 12, 2022
The shopping spree continues: New 122 mm long-range rockets for our #RM70 bought from Israel. #turpo=#säkpol
Interestingly, while the decision talks about "rockets" and not "missiles", the MoD has earlier talked about #GMLRS/#ERGMLRS as rockets, so wouldn't be sure they are unguided based on that.
My guess is these are 122 mm #ACCULAR, which #Elbit note "the 122mm has a range of
35km with a 20kg warhead and is adaptable to existing platforms. Accular
122mm seamlessly integrates with a wide variety of traditional launchers."
Read 5 tweets
Oct 10, 2022
The massed attacks on #Ukraine today again raises the question about different approaches to managing the long-range ballistic and cruise missile threat. 🧵
I am not claiming to have written the book on the topic, but I did write a chapter with that headline for the Swedish Defence Research Agency (@FOIresearch) a few years ago, so I have given it some thought. The tl;dr version is that it's hard. foi.se/en/foi/news-an…
Ballistic missiles (such as #Iskander) are very difficult targets, and only the most high-end systems are able to intercept them and then within a rather limited range. Cruise missiles (#Kalibr) are easier targets, and many systems are able to at least in theory target them.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 28, 2022
Keep your eyes on this one: Finland acquires long-range 155 mm munitions for our #K9Moukari SPGs, which will add "significantly" to the range of the system. #artillery #turpo=#säkpol
Obviously, L/52 guns, base bleed-projectiles, and so forth has meant ranges in general have been growing in recent years for artillery. However, Finland has already picked the low-hanging fruit, including getting the @Nammo 155 mm IM HE-ER (40 km range). nammo.com/product/our-pr…
Apparently this new round has "significantly" more range than 40 km. In 2017 Nammo Lapua said their most important project on the artillery side is a new long-range munition for the K9, and that the other Nordic countries are also planning to place orders. eduskunta.fi/FI/vaski/Julka…
Read 6 tweets
Jun 6, 2022
#Finland has - in my opinion correctly from both a moral point of view as well as according to our own security interests - declared that we would not join #NATO before #Sweden in case #Turkey would let us in easier/faster. #turpo=#säkpol #FISE 1/3 keski-uusimaa.fi/uutissuomalain…
*However*, I hope it has been made absolutely clear to the Swedish government that it can't at this time look like they are even contemplating concessions to #Kakabaveh, and in case they do, we might have to backtrack on the promise. 2/3 svt.se/nyheter/inrike…
We might not like it, but that's where we are currently with regards to national security. Optics matter, and while we obviously will not give in to the more outrageous Turkish demands - in particular extradition claims which have already been tried - this isn't one of those. 3/3
Read 10 tweets

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