Thread by @CASBT_OSINT_UA

Israeli political and economic columnist Doron Peskin said that according to the data he received, 14 facilities in Iran had been attacked.

These are UAV factories, IRGC headquarters, Qods Force headquarters and other industrial facilities that possibly serve Iran's defense industry. The attacks were carried out using UAVs.

#Iran.

@yigal_levin.

The IDF's special operation in the cities of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) against Iranian terror infrastructure continues.

The tenth Islamic Jihad (Iranian proxy) militant eliminated was announced today. Pictured, two of the most recently eliminated militants.

#Iran.

@yigal_levin.

The same Iranian UAV factory in Isfahan that was struck. You may notice that it is specifically located near a residential area - a human shield of civilians.

#Iran.

@yigal_levin.

200-300 Leopard 2...😎

A few days ago, in one of my materials I wrote that Ukraine can get up to 2 brigades of Leopard 2, and the total number of Western-style tanks will reach 3 brigades. Local sofa experts immediately began to write that I was wrong...

In their turn, Russian observers seriously began to wonder how many tanks the AFU will receive. And they decided to calculate in a very unusual for many, but correct way.

By means of the Western BMPs.

Thus, Ukraine will receive 17 Bergepanzer 2 armored personnel carriers from Germany, which will serve Leopard 2 tanks. Russians calculated that one such armored personnel carrier can service up to 10 tanks, and in Poland even 20-25 tanks.

Actually we draw conclusions.

Russians do not like the prospect of encountering in the near future with the Leopard 2 brigade, and here we are talking about an even greater potential, which can not counteract anything RVs.

Fatum.😈.

ROV offensive at 200,000...

In the last few days we have been hearing that Russia is preparing an offensive with a numerical capacity of approximately 200,000 troops. This figure has been heard from a number of Western officials, as well as analytical agencies. But there is a nuance in these statements.

The fact is that all of them are superficial, even those of analytical nature and do not carry the minimum depth of consideration of this issue and in general the problem of concentration of such a grouping and its provision in ruSS, even by means of forced general mobilization.

Well, not being the General Secretary of some military structure or an analyst of a respected and often quoted organization, which does not present anything but excerpts from open sources summarized in a single daily reports, I will consider this issue in more detail...

As long as there is light.

But first, I would like to congratulate the ROV on another record of their troops destroyed. Yes, in January 2023 the number of destroyed occupants exceeded 21,000.

That is, even according to the most conservative assumptions the total losses with wounded and prisoners of war in the ROV was 50-60,000.

As you understand, during January the Russian command had to compensate these losses in order to maintain intensity of combat operations and stability of defense of the occupied territories. In other words, the inflow of 50-60 thousand to the PSR units in January.

But let us not get distracted and pay attention to the figure of 200 thousand. In fact, this is two months of repressive mobilization processes in Russia.

On the other hand, didn't we see the same thing in the fall of 2022? Calling up 300,000 in three months and... And, actually, what? Some kind of major breakthrough?

For the last 4 months the Russian command has been busy feverishly compensating for the loss of personnel in the BW zone with the very resource of chmons.

And the more chmos there were in the combat zone, the higher the losses were. And the average loss rate of 200/300/400 is now a stable 50,000.

That is, if you draft 100,000 a month, you have to understand that the same month you have to make up for the losses of 50,000. And the next month, too.

And based on that kind of loss of hp. ROV, then in February the resource of September chmos will end and a new batch is needed for March.

With casualty rates like these, you can never organize a mobilization of 200,000 to assemble a strike group for an offensive. Because such mobilization is sufficient to compensate for losses over the next 2-3 months, not for an offensive operation. So there will be no offensive?

No. There will be. That's their maniacally fanatical goal. But they need a larger mobilization resource for this, namely 150-200 thousand a month.

It is unlikely that the figure of 200 thousand per month in Russia can be achieved, but they will be able to provide 150 thousand per month with a bang.

That way the Russian command can compensate for the losses in the combat zone and form a strike force at the same time. But it will take 2 to 4 months to do this.

That is, by May the ROVs will really be able to form a strike grouping for an offensive. But there is a nuance here as well.

It is unlikely that the ROV command will wait that long. This means that they can deploy the offensive with incompletely formed units, without a potential resource to compensate for losses. In other words, if the offensive fails, they will have no resources.

There is another very important point, which is that Russia has no possibility to provide the new units with standard equipment.

After all 200 thousand, this is, for the moment, about 250 BTGRs, or 2750 tanks, 8 250 GBMs and so on. That is, it is clear even from this that these are all unrealistic figures.

But let us not forget that the current potential of the ROV in Ukraine are units of the 8, 49, 58 OVA, 22 AC, 35, 36 OVA VVO, 3 AC and others.

Their total active combat strength ranges from 100 to 120 BTGr, depending on the degree of combat readiness and presence on the battle line and the combat zone as a whole.

Continued: site.ua/alexander.kova…

In GLSDB, which will soon fly to Ukraine, and from there to the incremental area, I like the last two letters best, and here's why: 👇👇👇

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