Kyle Orton Profile picture
Feb 15 9 tweets 6 min read
Senior Biden officials confirm to @washingtonpost that they are not trying to help #Ukraine achieve victory; they are trying to empower Kyiv to negotiate with #Putin, i.e. agree to the partition of the country and continued Russian occupation of parts. washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/…
The Biden people show how susceptible they are to #Russia's vision, unsurprisingly since so many are Obama holdovers: they leaked a CIA assessment that #Ukraine is militarily unable to retake #Crimea to WaPo, and expressed worries about the Russian "mobilisation".
Those believing Russia mobilising tens of thousands more people, including many convicts, helps rather than hinders their Army are rather wilful after everything we have seen so far. And if that is the Agency's view, Crimea could collapse next week.
The other most notable thing in the WaPo piece is that President Zelensky is personally directing the Ukrainian holdout at Bakhmut, which the US has advised him to let go, to preserve resources for a spring counter-offensive. Zelensky says losing Bakhmut is too damaging to morale
Been obvious for a long time the #Biden people do not intend victory in #Ukraine but some compromise that leaves #Russia occupying territory and in position to do this again. This is born of their ideology, the central pillar of which is "there are no military solutions".
It is disastrous strategic malpractice for the #Biden team to be broadcasting its intention to pressure #Ukraine to come to terms with #Russia. Even on their own terms, if that is the goal, the way to the best possible terms is to ensure Moscow fears total defeat.
As it is, #Russia has not abandoned its maximalist goal of conquering all of #Ukraine, so this evident neediness on the part of the #Biden team to "end the war" as soon as possible at most incentivises Moscow to freeze its gains in place and use the pause to rebuild to go again.
In the WaPo, Biden officials veer between stating their own preference to end this with parts of #Ukraine under #Russia's control, and claiming they are forced to this conclusion by the Republicans in the House, which is a real problem, but their ideology is the central issue.
#pt: More on the Biden administration's deficient strategic vision

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More from @KyleWOrton

Dec 12, 2022
.@shustry interviewed #Ukraine's President Zelensky on his way back from liberated #Kherson, a trip his security detail did not want him to make and that he concedes was a "bit reckless". A deeply interesting look at the man TIME made its Man of the Year. time.com/person-of-the-…
After #Kherson was liberated from nine months of #Russian occupation, #Zelensky went down there to "show them that #Ukraine has returned ... Maybe it will give them enough of a boost to last a few more days. But I'm not sure. I don't lull myself with such illusions."
"For most of his life, [#Zelensky] felt nostalgia for the culture and history Ukraine shared with Russia. 'There were these amazing Soviet comedies,' Zelensky told me. ... '[B]ut I'm incapable of watching them now,' the President says. 'They revolt me'."
Read 7 tweets
Dec 11, 2022
Abu Agila Masud, whom the #US indicted two years ago over the 1988 Lockerbie/Pan Am atrocity, was kidnapped by a militia in #Libya a month ago and is now in American custody. Masud will make an initial appearance in court im Washington, D.C., next week. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla…
Read 4 tweets
Dec 11, 2022
Signs that #Russia is re-escalating the "mobilisation", picking people up off the streets again to send to #Ukraine, presumably because so many of the mobiks have been killed already and now there is this insane effort to break through in Bakhmut.
Helpful thread here on the background from #Bakhmut. Really, whatever happens in the next period, whether #Russia can break through #Ukraine's lines or not, there is no meaningful way of assessing this as anything but a catastrophe for the Russians
I tend to think this is right. #Bakhmut means a lot to #Russia, but, as mentioned in the thread, among other things, #Ukraine is rotating people on the front, which is likely not what would be happening if Kyiv saw this as a central strategic issue.
Read 12 tweets
Nov 29, 2022
#Russian man claims he was in prison with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the nominal manager of "Wagner". Says Prigozhin was an "offended/outcast" (Обиженный), the lowest caste, who regularly provided sex to prisoners, including this man personally.

[Translated by @wartranslated]
"[Priogozhin] had his place ... and agreed to his place. ... [T]hose who join Wagner ... are commanded and managed by a faggot ... [and therefore] become lower than faggots."
Read 4 tweets
Nov 29, 2022
Shapur Bakhtiar broke with a lifetime of opposition activity to form a government at the Shah's behest as the King left Iran in January 1979. A stern secularist, Bakhtiar tried fight the laws of gravity to pull his country back from the brink of madness as the Revolution crested.
If everyone, even the greatest men, get only a sentence in history, Shapur Bakhtiar's is that he reigned in Iran for 37 days after 37 years in opposition. However, his life both before and after the Iranian Revolution is equally as interesting.
Born in 1914, Bakhtiar went to a French high school in Lebanon and then the Sorbonne. His cultural and political sensibilities would remain significantly French all his life, and, indeed, his life would end in France.
Read 19 tweets
Nov 11, 2022
So much for the idea #Ukraine negotiated a deal with #Russia to allow the Russians to withdraw unmolested from #Kherson: the Ukrainians are battering the Russians as they fall back, and all indications are this has degenerated into a rout for the Russians.
Read 14 tweets

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