1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on Feb 23, 2023
Situation is very difficult in north and East #Bakhmut but under control almost everywhere else except on the North where the situation is degrading like in #Berkhivka
Ongoing hard fights
#UkraineMap
Situation is very difficult in north and East #Bakhmut but under control almost everywhere else except on the North where the situation is degrading like in #Berkhivka
Ongoing hard fights
#UkraineMap
2/ Russians are not able to capitalize at all in the directions of #Ivaniske or #TchassivYar #ChassivYar #ЧасівЯр
As i explained earlier this week, ru are kind of "trap" there in a giant "kill box" and they really don't realize it. so every day is #GroundhogDay
Good for Ukr
As i explained earlier this week, ru are kind of "trap" there in a giant "kill box" and they really don't realize it. so every day is #GroundhogDay
Good for Ukr
3/ So basically it is quite interesting because right now, like a rabid dog, #WagnerPMC are enjoying their progress on the north of #Bakhmut but at the same time they clearly still don't understand that they are wasting thousands of men in an area they can't control! dumb.
4/ So today #UAarmy pushed back attacks on #Fedorivka, #OrikhovoVasylivka, #DubovoVasylivka (even if there is some Ru progress there), #Berkhivka the situation as said yesterday is quite desperate, #Yahidne, ru are there and newatack on #Maloilshivska & #Bakhmut East is suffering
5/ So we have some news concerning the famous road (yellow line) i talked abt several times in the past. Apparently today several Ukr vehicles were directly hit on this road (ATGM) & direct mortar shells hit some Ukr convoys (including medics) on this road
so it's no safe no more
so it's no safe no more
6/ so we are talking about this particular road.
the 00506 coming from #ChassivYar .
So as i said, when weeks ago, when this road will be totally compromised (and Wagner brag about it tonight) it's going to become really difficult for defense even for simple supplies.
it's hard
the 00506 coming from #ChassivYar .
So as i said, when weeks ago, when this road will be totally compromised (and Wagner brag about it tonight) it's going to become really difficult for defense even for simple supplies.
it's hard
7/ so as said earlier back to #Bakhmut : part or all of #Berkhivka is captured & hard fighting is going on in #Yahidne. The dyn is clearly on Ru sides. Ru also don't brag about the fact that lots of UKr soldiers captured are "recent soldiers" who have just finished their training
8/ ...On the eastern bank of the #Bakmutovka river the enemy is slowly but surely pushing Ukr directly to the river. The situation in the south of the city remains stable, despite intense/insane fights all along the week.
So now considering the diff commanders remains calm &
So now considering the diff commanders remains calm &
9/ and claim that they are staying there and still fighting exactly the same way (so the plan of #Zalujni #Zaluzhny is being followed), the questions we can ask ourselves is :
- are they indeed fighting to stay here even in the worst outcome, or
- they are slightly withdrawing
- are they indeed fighting to stay here even in the worst outcome, or
- they are slightly withdrawing
10/ which is my thoughts, and as soon as it is going to become to hard on #Yahidne hills, above the city well, UKr will simply get out of there, and fight from the other part of the city or outside.. and that's it no drama.
but there is still a lot that can be done there!
but there is still a lot that can be done there!
11/ just to explain it, clearly, some people keep asking what will happen if #Bakhmut fall. well just this :
nothing special actually. the slow destruction of Ru forces will still goes on & on, until they bleed their last forces & then UKR commanders will decide to strike back.
nothing special actually. the slow destruction of Ru forces will still goes on & on, until they bleed their last forces & then UKR commanders will decide to strike back.
12/ i told this since the 07 of March last year and made my first excel sheet to show it back then with the first army.
Yes Ukr are losing men & it is a bloodbath some days but the ratio remains, even on worst day about 5:1 (Global 3:1 for sure) & ukr receive much better
Yes Ukr are losing men & it is a bloodbath some days but the ratio remains, even on worst day about 5:1 (Global 3:1 for sure) & ukr receive much better
13/ treatments & overall help when they are wounded.. so when they are treated, they are able when it's not that dramatic to come back after couple of months (lots are still motivated) around 25% may come back.
which is not the same for Russia.
which is not the same for Russia.
14/ anyway now regarding the situation in the #Svatove to #Kreminna direction :
there are no global changes whatsoever compare to last week. Truth is it's really hard for some soldiers there because they fought for a full month to reach #Kreminna but then had to retreat 3-4 km
there are no global changes whatsoever compare to last week. Truth is it's really hard for some soldiers there because they fought for a full month to reach #Kreminna but then had to retreat 3-4 km
15/ so today Gen staff report that Ru carried out unsuccessful offensive actions near the settlements of #Stelmakhivka, #Kreminna area and #Bilohorivka – all in #Luhansk
also Ru shelled #Kamyanka, #Dvorichna, #Hryanykivka, #Kotlyarivka, #Berestove, #Nevske, #Chervonopopivka,
also Ru shelled #Kamyanka, #Dvorichna, #Hryanykivka, #Kotlyarivka, #Berestove, #Nevske, #Chervonopopivka,
16/ #Ivanivka, #Yampolivka, #Kreminna, #Kuzmyne, #Dibrova and #Bilohorivka.
not much more to add it. it's very difficult - very - but also still under a great control.
Ru troops there don't realize they are "dancing" there, being "poked" they advance, then are punished then back
not much more to add it. it's very difficult - very - but also still under a great control.
Ru troops there don't realize they are "dancing" there, being "poked" they advance, then are punished then back
17/ ok so overall the situation is exactly the same as 5 months ago when we start to zoom out and check the main hot points.
18/ last points : Russian carried out maybe 50 diff continuous attacks all along the frontline but on particular points & unsuccessful attacks in the areas of #Novobakhmutivka, #Avdiivka, #Vodyane, #Nevelske, #Maryinka, #Pobyeda, #Vuhledar and #Prechystivka in Donetsk region.
19/ for sure they are advancing here and there for 50 meters or 100m but 3 days later or 1 week later, they are out again, so no need to make any map before the week end, as there is not 1/ a clear dynamic & 2/ the scale is not enough representative (which is part of my "rules")
20/ Last gen staff - part 1&2
22/
23/ Gen staff also report that we still have to remember that this year we have witnessed #10MainWins - victories & we should not forget about as even the drawback were a total & real loss contrary to Ru claims.. RU has failed in 2022! don't get confuse about it!
More to come!
More to come!
24/ some quick recap from this past week :
yesterday last recap :
yesterday last recap :
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1628497301982351361
27/ The #UkraineLights are back and that's a strong symbol
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1627762989175648260
28/ A very important thread in my opinion with almost no rt (yes you people out there really drive me crazy sometimes)
#Ukrainelosses #UkrainePTSD #UkraineMentalHealth
#Ukrainelosses #UkrainePTSD #UkraineMentalHealth
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1627756938044887042
29/ my thread (one of) about #WagnerPMC
so the "good dog" is now back to being "nice" with his "masters" as he certainly received a call explaining him how he will end up dead in a muddy hole if more crazy insults would happen.
so the "good dog" is now back to being "nice" with his "masters" as he certainly received a call explaining him how he will end up dead in a muddy hole if more crazy insults would happen.
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1628389622093864961
30/ and last very subtile "shot" just to end this one year mark... and "shit" on Russian happy day today...
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1628810810184138752
31/ Hey #USA #US citizen out there !
This is how #WagnerPMC is ending it's day today :
that's a hell of a statement @SecDef @POTUS !
basically their giant screaming "victory" is beheading the #StatueOfLiberty and all what this represents!
what do you think my american friends?
This is how #WagnerPMC is ending it's day today :
that's a hell of a statement @SecDef @POTUS !
basically their giant screaming "victory" is beheading the #StatueOfLiberty and all what this represents!
what do you think my american friends?
32/ "Ru in #Luhansk region are recovering from their recent failed attacks & r behaving quietly today. Most likely, they are preparing for new offensives"
from @serhey_hayday
i got same infos for diff canals. they really did not enjoy their major failed-offensives this week.
from @serhey_hayday
i got same infos for diff canals. they really did not enjoy their major failed-offensives this week.
33/ dang i forgot to repost this morning numbers
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1628696293601075200
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