Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Mar 1 8 tweets 5 min read
NEW: @FBI believes the origins of the #COVID19 #coronavirus pandemic "most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan" per Director Christopher Wray
This first public comments from @FBI's Wray on the origins of #COVID19 comes just days after the @WSJ reported the @ENERGY Dept concluded with "low confidence" the virus spread as a result of a lab leak
The @FBI's assessment of the origins of #COVID19 are in line w/one of the two main hypotheses from the US intelligence community - first shared in August 2021
That August 2021 assessment noted the US intelligence community at the time remained "divided on the most likely origin"

“All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident”
In August 2021, 4 intel agencies “assess w/ low confidence” #COVID19 “most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected w/it …”

1 had “moderate confidence” 1st human infection most likely result of lab incident

The rest “unable to coalesce around either explanation”
A more detailed, declassified assessment from @ODNIgov in October 2021 further concluded: "an initial small-scale exposure ... occurred no later than Nov 2019 w/the first known cluster of COVID-19 cases arising in #Wuhan, #China in Dec 2019"
Key point from the Oct 2021 @ODNIgov report:

"We judge the virus was not developed as a biological weapon"

"Most agencies also assess w/low confidence that SARS-CoV-2 probably was not genetically engineered" but 2 say "not sufficient evidence to make an assessment either way"
Also from the @ODNIgov October 2021 report:

US intelligence "will be unable to provide a more definitive explanation for the origin of #COVID19 unless new information allows them to determine the specific pathway"

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More from @jseldin

Mar 2
NEW: 2 US citizens arrested for conspiring to evade export laws & provide #Russia|n companies with aircraft electronics aka avionics

Per @TheJusticeDept, 59yo Cyril Buyanovsky & 55yo Douglas Robertson of #Kansas even did repairs for Russia's Federal Security Services (FSB)
"The defendants concealed the true end user & end destination by providing a fraudulent invoice to the shipment company identifying the end destination as Germany" per @TheJusticeDept on the repairs done for #Russia's FSB Image
Per @TheJusticeDept, Buyanovsky & Roberston used their company, KanRus Trading Company, to evade the laws prohibiting the export of certain technologies to #Russia following the invasion of #Ukraine
Read 4 tweets
Mar 2
#China's spy balloon - "This was a surveillance balloon period...it is equipment that is inconsistent w/weather balloons" per @ASD_IndoPacific Ely Ratner, speaking at @HudsonInstitute

We "have not heard a plausible explanation for this activity" from the PRC, he adds
US deterrence vs #NorthKorea "is to deter agression & deter conflict" per @ASD_IndoPacific

"It's not to deter Kim Jong Un from killing a bunch of fish with his missiles"
"We're focused on readiness. We're focused on deterrence. We're focused on ensuring that Kim Jong Un doesn't take risks that go way beyond his capacity" per @ASD_IndoPacific

re #DPRK
Read 9 tweets
Mar 1
BREAKING: US intelligence concludes "very unlikely" a foreign adversary is responsible for so-called anomalous health incidents (#AHI), aka #HavanaSyndrome, per just-released assessment

Assessment based on of 7 key US intelligence agecnies, noting various levels of confidence
Per just released US intel assessment ruling out foreign adversaries as cause of #AHI / #HavanaSyndrome:

2 - moderate to high confidence
3 - moderate confidence
2 - low confidence, calling it "unlikely" but noting some intelligence gaps
"There's no credible evidence that a foreign adversary has a weapon or a collection systems that caused AHIs" per an intelligence official familiar w/the report who spoke on the condition of anonymity
Read 11 tweets
Feb 28
US cybersecurity officials are calling for tech & software companies to step up

"The risk introduced to all of us by unsafe technology is frankly much more dangerous and pervasive than the [#China] spy balloon" @CISAJen said Monday
voanews.com/a/us-cybersecu…
While speaking at @CarnegieMellon, @CISAJen praised some companies for making security - & the use of multifactor authentication a priority

But she said MFA efforts by @Microsoft @Twitter were "disappointing"
@Mircosoft Tuesday pushing back on the @CISAgov narrative

"Advancing the security posture of our customers is one of Microsoft’s top priorities" the company said in a statement to @VOANews

"We provide MFA defenses at no additional cost for our consumer & enterprise customers"
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
Pentagon, @CJTFOIR urging world not to underestimate a weakened #ISIS in #Iraq, #Syria

ISIS " still has the ideal ideology to inspire and recruit members to its ranks, and it has the will to reconstitute" per @DeptofDefense Deputy Asst Sec for the Middle East Dana Stroul
#ISIS - "the ideology remains unconstrained" per @CJTFOIR Commander MajGen Matthew McFarlane

"There are still aspirations out there for radical fighters in a desire to continue to spread ISIS" he says during media call
"#ISIS is continually trying to rebuild leadership" per @CJTFOIR's MajGen McFarlane

BUT he notes, "right now they're militarily ineffective," unable to launch a major, complex attack since January 2022
voanews.com/a/us-backed-sd…
Read 4 tweets
Feb 28
Threat from #Iran has evolved into "a global challenge" per @DeptofDefense Deputy Asst Sec Dana Stroul

"That is a result of the increasing military cooperation btw Iran & #Russia & the illicit transfer by Iran to Russia of one-way attack drones that are being used in #Ukraine"
"We now need to rally a coalition not only in the #MiddleEast but a global coalition to push back on the malign cooperation between #Iran & #Russia" per @DeptofDefense's Stroul on media call
"It is reasonable to expect that the tactics, techniques & procedures that the #Iran|ians are learning & perfecting in #Ukraine will one day come back to our partners in the #MiddleEast" per @DeptofDefense's Stroul
Read 4 tweets

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