Thread by @chrisschmitz

Nukes and #iran, what could be done to stop that (by #USA or #Israel)?
With a high chance of a kinetic outcome to the Iran #nuclear ambitions, lets see what could happen.

Allow me to boringly present the results of armchair-ing and sim using @CommandDevTeam (long thread!) : twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

@CommandDevTeam Lets understand the criteria for mission accomplished. I assume the following:
a) Nuclear Material Stocks are split between two hardened and well defended Fuel Enrichment Plants (FEP)
b) These two are assumed to be the hardened underground facilites at #Natanz and #Fordow

@CommandDevTeam Natanz is located at 33°43′30″N 51°43′30″E and hardened, underground and strongly defended by Anti Air Artillery (AAA) and Surface to Air Missles (SAM).
This site is vast, with over 100,000 m², and very well protected, see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_f…

Actual Picture, 3rd March 2023:

Fordow is a second, hardened underground facility located at 34.8845°N 50.9981°E near the city of Qom.
This site is also well protected by AAA and SAM sites, and is known to host key areas of the iranian nuclear programme. See en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordow_Fu…
Actual Picture, 26th Feb 2023

For both sites, we make the same assumptions:

a) USA and Israel KNOW the internal layout and storage locations
b) Protection of SAM consists of modern iranian SAM systems, namely 1 of Bavar-373 (Bn) and 4 Bty of Khordad 15 per site

Bavar 373:

c) The design of the GBU-57 MOP is sufficient to destroy the hardenend underground facilities, but no other US conventional Bomb will be able to "get the job done"

As we can see here, it really is in a class of its own:

So how does this look like? Well, look at this 4k 60fps Video of a B-2 dropping two GBU-57 MOP, possibly the best quality footage of either you will ever get to see:

In such a mission, looking at the map, we can see both facilities (marked green!) are deep inside Iran.

The only plane able to carry the required GBU-57 MOP is the B-2 Stealth Bomber, a highly secret asset of the US Air Force, one where a loss is absolutely not allowed.

This sets the entire gameplan for the mission:
"How can the USA safely get B-2 carrying "MOP" over the sites, while mitigating any possible risk?"

Can it be "undetected"? Can it escape iranian fighters?
Where does it fly in? At which time does it strike best?

Without going into "crazy" detail, this is MY theory of a likely avenue of approach.

Barely 250 Miles from Iraq, where US will be able to safely refuel/operate and have support assets like AWACS, SIGINT and EW.
Which assets are likely to be employed?

Assets are dictated by the tactical execution, I assume:
- REZONANS sites must be disabled ahead of "time on target"
- Anti-Stealth radars in-place, manual targeting of SAM, means that SAM sites at the FEP need to be destroyed
- Air Supremacy and SEAD must be in place

The first phase of strikes, in my assumption, will be covertly launched stealth cruise missles, namely JASSM-ER, vs Rezonans and key sites.

A possible hidden launch platform: C-17 cargo planes using RAPID DRAGON
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Dra…

As hinted before, the US needs to move B-2 250 miles into Iran, without any ability for Iran to see it or shoot it down.
US will likey use 3 B-2, one for each site, one spare over Iraq in case of Mechanical issues or so.
These will be protected by either F-22 or F-35.

I do not believe US will aim to enter iranian Airspace with non-stealth Aircraft. The EA-18G Growler may be the sole exception as superb EW and SEAD platform, using AGM-88E AARGM, successor of "HARM".

US Fighters would fly out of Al-Udeid, towards the relevant area in Iraq.

As diversion, a possible attack could be done by US Planes against the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.

This could be done by striking defenses and adjacent military airport, but not harming the actual NPP, as USA would likely want to avoid contamination.

NPP, 28th February 2023

The direct action would likely be preceded by a massive JASSM strike, either by bombers that arrive from USA, or F-15 etc, that can carry 5 JASSM each.

Targets would be red X: Isfahan, Hamedan and Dezful (Shahid Vahdati Airbase), to mitigate any iranian Fighters from there.

With that out of the way, the US could move in along the purple corridor with B-2s covered by F-22 and F-35 and electronic warfare, engage the FEP and get out.
US CAP would have to ensure nothing gets out of Teheran area (blue).

Additionally, one can expect the Area of Operations (AO) to have multiple RQ-180 "secret stealth drones" over Iran, to ensure US has every "base" covered with sensors for its real-time killchain.

It totally does not exist, so please delete this picture.

Additionally, I believe the US would have a sizeable strike package in Iraq and Gulf, to be able to "plaster" the country with JASSM if anything unforseen happens.
B-1 Bombers carry 24 JASSM each, and have long legs, so they are likely to be useful for this, IF in the area.

As summary:

I believe the US can pull this off, with as little as 3 B2, a bunch of F-22, F-35, plenty of support, and about 250+ JASSM(ER).

Israel would be a close partner on this, but in regards to "sabotage" "oops, the radar is burning", intel and agents on the ground.

I am concerned that this will be the "next" stage of escalation.

One could wonder if such activity "could by chance" be used to disrupt the command and control of the iranian regime, and coincide with a revolution attempt.

We can only hope.

I would also like to point out that US has some interesting assets in Kurdistan.
Harir could be a base where the US will stage a Quick Reaction Force, incase something goes wrong. Apaches, Ospreys and such.

google.de/maps/@36.52802…

One thing that I forgot when posting this thread:
REZONANS mentioned before, is a long range Anti-Stealth Radar system.
This would need to be taken out, which is where I may presume the aforementioned usage of massive JASSM strikes with Rapid Dragon

globalsecurity.org/military/world…