Ted Darling Profile picture
Mar 20 11 tweets 4 min read
Hello Spring 2023!

The swap lines are open, and we're buying $GOLD $TLT and #Bitcoin (unbelievably)

But what about the Qs?

Let' dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed ↘️ with $HSI🩸🇭🇰

$NIKK 26946 -1.4%
$SSEC 3235 -0.5%
$TWII 15120 -0.2%
$HSI 19021 -2.55% ⬅️ 🩸
$KOSPI 2379 -0.7%
$IDX 6612 -1.0%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 6898 -1.4%

India ↘️
$BSE 57260 -1.25%
Europe ↘️ sharply with $MIB 🩸🇮🇪

$DAX 14523 -1.65%
$FTSE 7222 -1.55%
$CAC 6824 -1.45%
$AEX 713 -1.25%
$IBEX 8552 -1.95%
$MIB 24951 -2.1% ⬅️ 🩸
$SMI 10422 -1.8%
$MOEX 2354 +1.35% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 30.04 🔺

$DAX range = 14501 - 15324 ♉️ ⬅️ buy?
🇺🇸 futures ↘️

$ES 3875 -1.05%
$NQ 12427 -0.75%
$RTY 1711 -0.75%

$VIX 28.43 🔺🔺

$SPX range = 3851 - 3983 ♉️
$COMPQ range = 11172 - 11817 ♉️
$IWM range = 167 - 184 🐻
$VIX range = 21.88 - 26.71 ♉️⬅️
GOLD 🚀 with metals ↔️

$GOLD 2008 +1.75%
$SILVER 22.785 +1.4%
$COPPER 3.874 -0.45%
$PLAT 972 -0.7%
$PALL 1392 +0.45%
$ALI 2269 -0.2%
$ZINC 2867 -0.95%

$GVZ 22.83 🛗

$GOLD range = 1862 - 2003 ♉️
$SILVER range = 21.22 - 23.14 🐻
$COPPER range = 3.79 - 4.04 ♉️
Hydrocarbons 🐒🔨↘️

$WTIC 64.47 -3.7%
$BRENT 70.25 -3.75%
$GASO 3.414 -3.5%
$NATGAS 2.338 unch

$OVX 51.48 🛗

$WTIC range = 63.70 - 75.15 🐻
$NATGAS range = 2.16 - 2.95 🐻
$DBC range = 22.28 - 23.70 🐻
Grains ↘️

$WHEAT 699 -1.5%
$CORN 626 -1.3%
$SOYB 1462 -0.95%
$SUGAR 20.50 -0.9%

$COFFEE ☕️ 176.83

$DBA range = 19.66 - 20.18 ↔️ 🆕
#FX remarkably ↔️

$EUR 1.064 -0.21%
$GBP 1.219 +0.13%
$AUD 0.668 -0.21%
$USD 103.52 +0.15%
$USDJPY 130.73 -0.81% ⬅️
$USDCHF 0.93 +0.42%
$USDCAD 1.373 unch
$USDCNY 6.892 +0.07%

#FX vol 11.0 🛗

$USD range = 103.05 - 105.81 ↔️
$GBP range = 1.204 - 1.222 ♉️
#Cryptocurrencies ↗️

$BTC 28177 +0.9%
$ETH 1783 +0.2%

#Bitcoin range = 23085 - 28621 ♉️⬅️ 🔝
UST yields ↔️ with ⤴️
10/2s to -0.39 bps
10Y3M to -128 bps

MOVE 180.11 😱

$TNX range = 3.25 - 3.83 🐻
$TLT range = 102.54 - 108.94 ♉️

Global 10Ys 🔻across the 🌍
UST 3.31
GILT 3.168
BUND 1.957
ITA 3.992
JPN 0.227 ⬅️
AUS 3.157
CAN 2.784
With the #Kraken free to roam about the cabin, we have a full on deflationary event to manage.

Expecting equity vol to 🚀 here, but my plan is to fade the close for a trade into #vixperation and #FOMC before resumption of 🤮

🛑 and have a super profitable 💰 day!

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More from @tdarling1

Mar 12
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻💰
Macro Review 03/10/23

🧵 1/8

The #Kraken may have been unleashed on financial markets this week with volatility up across asset classes.

Let’s dig into the critical 🧮 from the week!
© Adobe Stock
2a/8

After a week of reflation and my #CrashRiskRising call from 02/26/23, Jay Powell stepped up to the plate and told us “dot plot going higher.”

The UST2Y ripped, the curve inverted further, and the MOVE ↗️

Chart: MOVE index 140.06
2b/8

After two days of Powell chatting with Congress, the UST 2Y accelerated to 5.05%, a multi-year high, before crashing hard on the SVB news.

Chart: $UST2Y with -1.6 STD move in 2 days
Read 16 tweets
Mar 10
Hello Friday and the week to date!

$USD +0.78%
$GBP -1.0%
$GOLD -1.08%

$TLT +0.18%
$TNX -0.98%
$HYG -1.73%

$NIKK +0.78%
$DAX +0.35%
$SSEC -2.94%
$SPX -3.16%

$COPPER +0.69%
$WTIC -4.97%
$SILVER -5.08%
#bitcoin -8.91%
$NATGAS -15.59%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
🇺🇸 futures ↘️ ahead of #NFP

$ES 3905 -0.3%
$NQ 11883 unch
$RTY 1819 -0.5%

$VIX 22.73

$SPX range = 3860 - 4030 ↔️
$VIX range = 17.74 - 24.32 ↔️
Hydrocarbons ↘️

$WTIC 75.19 -0.7%
$BRENT 81.19 -0.5%
$GASO 2.60 -0.2%
$NATGAS 2.52 -0.85%

$OVX 34.86 🔺

$WTIC range = 74.13 - 81.02 ♉️
Read 7 tweets
Mar 9
Hello Thursday!

"With inflation well above our longer-run goal of 2% and with the labor market remaining extremely tight… ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate …to return inflation to 2%…"
~J. Powell

Let's dig into the 🧮!
In Asia, $NIKK 🇯🇵↗️ ♉️

$NIKK 8623 +0.65%
$SSEC 3276 -0.2%
$TWII 15771 -0.3%
$HSI 19926 -0.65%
$KOSPI 2414 -0.55%
$IDX 6780 +0.35%

Australia ↔️
$ASX 7311 +0.05%

India ↘️
$BSE 59837 -0.85%
Europe under pressure ↘️

$DAX 15571 -0.4%
$FTSE 7872 -0.75%
$CAC 7282 -0.6%
$AEX 747 -0.8%
$IBEX 9402 -0.7%
$MIB 27591 -1.15%
$SMI 10928 -0.9%
$MOEX 2281 -0.65%

$VSTOXX 18.50

$DAX range = 15217 - 15813 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Feb 28
Hello Tuesday!

Into month-end markup we go with USTs on the move ↗️ and the curve deeply inverted. If this rebalance and 401K flows don't turn this equity market around, look out below 🕳️

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia finished the month on a ↔️🎵

$NIKK 27446 +0.1%
$SSEC 3280 +0.65%
$TWII 15504 -0.7%
$HSI 19786 -0.8%
$KOSPI 2413 +0.4%
$IDX 6843 -0.15%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7258 +0.45%

India ↘️
$BSE 58890 -0.65%
Europe mostly ↘️ on 🔺 inflation 🇪🇸 +6.1% and 🇫🇷 +7.2% y/y

$DAX 15332 -0.3%
$FTSE 7887 -0.6%
$CAC 7265 -0.4% 🇫🇷
$AEX 753 -0.5%
$IBEX 9361 +0.5% 🇪🇸
$MIB 27393 -0.2%
$SMI 11174 -0.4%
$MOEX 2249 +0.35%

$VSTOXX 20.21

$DAX range = 15165 - 15619 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Feb 27
Hello Monday!

Uncle Warren remains optimistic on the 🇺🇸 - despite a 14% drop in earnings $BRK.A $BRK.B

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia ↘️ to start the week

$NIKK 27424 -0.1%
$SSEC 3258 -0.3%
$TWII 15504 -0.7%
$HSI 19959 -0.25%
$KOSPI 2403 -0.85%
$IDX 6855 -0.05%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7225 -1.1%

India ↘️
$BSE 59143 -0.55%
Europe is ripping ↗️ on 🇮🇹 consumer confidence 🔺

$DAX 15408 +1.3%
$FTSE 7942 +0.8%
$CAC 7286 +1.4%
$AEX 757 +1.4%
$IBEX 9297 +1.05%
$MIB 27423 +1.6% ⬅️ 🇮🇹
$SMI 11241 +0.55%
$MOEX 2223 +0.65%

$VSTOXX 21.09 🔻

$DAX range = 15027 - 15635 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
Feb 26
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻c 💰
Macro Review 2/26/23

🧵 1/8

If the #macro picture has been unclear, it has just come clearly into focus.

I am going to keep it simple this week -
crash risk is rising ⚠️🚩

Let’s dig into the market 🧮!
2a/8

It’s all about the $USD 🎳

On 2/10, we got a confirmed buy signal in the USD along with sell signals in $SPX and $TLT Image
2b/8

Since then, we got a hot #CPI reading on 2/14 with #CoreCPI to +5.4% and on Friday 2/24 #CorePCE came in ♨️ at +4.7%

Chart: Core PCE for January 2023 Image
Read 13 tweets

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