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🧵About to fly back from #Berlin after our conference commemorating the 75th anniversary of the Marshall Plan. As much of the conversation focused on the postwar reconstruction of #Ukraine, let me share a few thoughts. First, the top priority should be helping #Ukraine win. 1/7
If #Ukraine’s security is not addressed the rest of the conversation is academic, for no private equity will invest in a country constantly under threat of another attack. Hence, instead of talking about #Ukraine joining the #EU we should focus on bringing it into @NATO. 2/7
I find conversations about some sort of Western guarantee to #Ukraine short of NATO membership to be vacuous. Consider why #Finland and #Sweden have asked to join @NATO. They know very well that nothing short of the Article V guarantee is enough today to make them secure. 3/7
Also consider the trajectory postcommunist #Europe has travelled: it was @NATO membership followed by #EU membership. Again, not that different from the experience of Western Europe after WWII where US security guarantee created conditions for economic recovery & ECSC/EC/EU. 4/7
Let’s also remember that with each passing day of this war, #Ukraine is being destroyed ever more, including its human capital, its economy & its critical infrastructure. Ukrainians have been incredibly brave but every nation has a breaking point. So let’s focus on the war. 5/7
Let’s prioritize giving #Ukraine the weapons, munitions and support it needs to achieve the strategic victory on the battlefield it urgently needs. Then we can begin to talk seriously about the end state and assess the country’s needs when it comes to postwar reconstruction. 6/7
#Ukraine needs to break out from the current pattern of war of attrition that Russia is trying to impose on it around #Bakhmut. UKR needs to fight on its own terms. For that it needs long-range fires, MBTs and airplanes. Let’s make sure it gets those now. #ArmUkraineNow. 7/End
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