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🧵Sitting for 9hrs on a transatlantic flight gives you an opportunity to slow down. So let me use this time to share a few thoughts on where we are heading when it comes to the war in #Ukraine. Most agree that a Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely happen in May-June. 1/7
It’s not just because of the slow drip of weapons and supplies arriving there. It’s also the weather-need dry conditions to move armor at speed. Most importantly, the outcome of the offensive will determine where the US and then Europe will be when it comes to supporting UKR. 2/7
Once again, our debate is driven by our strategic impatience. When it comes to UKR Western policy elites seem unable to understand that to win in a system-transforming war you need to come at it with the assumption that it may be long. And costly. Don’t impose timelines. 3/7
I’ve spent 80% of my time over the past 7yrs working with our UKR friends, both civilian and military. So on many levels this war hits close to home. But even being detached and “objective” I think leaders across the West do not fully grasp what a Russian victory would portend4/7
Putin has framed this war as a civilizational struggle against the West, @NATO, the US. A victory for #Russia would be seen as a civilizational win. He’d rearm and in approx 3+ years move again, launching a wider war in #Europe at a time the US would likely be focused on Asia.5/7
Remember: It doesn’t matter that we say @NATO is not at war with RUS; what matters is Russians believe they are fighting NATO. It’s not Putin’s war; it’s Russia’s war. Those 25%+ of Russians who vocally support it are equally responsible as those 75% who silently enable it. 6/7
I grow weary of people gaming end-states in #Ukraine, pontificating about this or that territorial concession UKR should make to end the war. It’s easy to give away someone else’s land. Stop this nonsense. Admit we don’t know what’s coming. Help #Ukraine win.#ArmUkraineNow. 7/End
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