April 6th, 2023: @Twitter has been randomly shutting down API access for many apps and sadly we were affected today too. Hopefully we will be restored soon! We appreciate your patience until then.
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin’s demonstrative response to the assassination of #Russian milblogger Maxim #Fomin (Vladlen Tatarsky) indicates Prigozhin likely believes that the attack was in part directed at himself. 1/4
#Prigozhin held an event on April 4 at the remnants of the restaurant where #Fomin was killed by an improvised explosive device on April 2. Prigozhin claimed that he arrived at the scene from the #Bakhmut frontline as quickly as he could to commemorate Fomin. 2/4
#Prigozhin announced that he intends to expand the #Wagner-affiliated ultranationalist group that held #Fomin’s fatal event into a social movement that fights against external threats.
Prigozhin also noted that he will offer financial compensation to the event’s attendees. 3/4
#Prigozhin’s response shows that he intends to continue to pursue a central position within the #Russian pro-war ultranationalist community, despite the threat of violence and pushback. 4/4
#Zelensky stated during a press conference in #Poland on April 5 that #Ukrainian troops face a very challenging situation in #Bakhmut, and that #Kyiv will make the “corresponding decisions” if Ukrainian troops risk encirclement by #Russian forces. 1/
#Zelensky’s statement is in line with other recent statements by #Ukrainian officials that Ukrainian military command will order a withdrawal from #Bakhmut when and if they deem a withdrawal to be the most strategically appropriate option. 2/
While it remains to be seen whether #Ukraine’s defense of #Bakhmut and its efficacy in fixing #Russian forces in the area is worth #Ukrainian losses (and we will likely be unable to assess this until observing the Ukrainian spring counteroffensive)... 3/
New: Today's report discusses the assassination of prominent pro-war Russian milblogger Maksim Fomin (also known as Vladlen Tatarsky) in St. Petersburg on April 2. Fomin’s assassination may reveal further fractures within the Kremlin and its inner circle.
Fomin was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers w/ a Telegram platform of 560k followers & deep connections w/ Wagner PMC, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic & the Russian nationalists dominating 🇷🇺's info space since the start of 🇷🇺's full-scale invasion of 🇺🇦.
#Fomin’s assassination at a #Wagner-affiliated bar in St. Petersburg may reveal further fractures within the #Kremlin and its inner circle. Fomin was a vocal critic of the #Russian military command and the Russian Ministry of Defense. 3/4
New: Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 31.
Chief of the #Russian General Staff Valery #Gerasimov had announced on December 22 that Russian forces were focusing most of their efforts on seizing #Donetsk Oblast. 2/
#Russian forces launched their winter offensive operation in early February along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna-Lyman line and on select frontlines in western #Donetsk Oblast. 3/
The new Foreign Policy Concept (FPC) paints the West as anti-#Russian & internationally destabilizing to a far greater extent than 🇷🇺's previous 2016 FPC, explicitly stating that the US & its “satellites” have unleashed a hybrid war aimed at weakening 🇷🇺.
The new document also heavily stresses #Russia's goal of creating a multipolar world order & subordinates under that goal Russia’s broad foreign policy objectives, which include ending the US’ supposed dominance in world affairs. 2/
The document asserts that most of humanity is interested in constructive relations with #Russia and that a desired multipolar world will give opportunities to non-Western world powers and regional leading countries. 3/
#Putin’s use of conscripts during the winter-spring period of 2022 sparked social tensions in #Russia, and Putin is unlikely to risk his regime’s stability by deploying newly conscripted servicemen to the frontlines. 2/
The #Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and #Putin even publicly instructed Russian authorities to investigate alleged incidents of Russian conscript deployments to #Ukraine on March 9, 2022 (which were technically illegal at that time). 3/
NEW: #Russian President Vladimir #Putin signed a decree on March 30 authorizing Russia’s semiannual spring conscription which will induct 147,000 Russians between April 1 and July 15.
The start of the new conscription period, even with a slightly increased number of conscripts, may actually reduce #Russian training capacity for reservists and other personnel recruited via crypto-mobilization campaigns.