Thomas des Garets Geddes Profile picture
Apr 13 15 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
One of the Global South's leading voices, 🇧🇷 Lula, is in #China.

Prof. Cheng Yawen argues that "🇨🇳 and develop. countries need to break the current core-periphery world order" and build a new international system free from Western interference.

THREAD
sinification.com/p/three-rings-…
🔹The Author: Cheng Yawen (程亚文) – Researcher at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University. Image
🔹 Summary of Cheng's views:

1⃣ US-led globalisation and capitalism drove #NATO's eastward expansion. This, in turn, has been the “main reason” behind #Russia’s offensive in #Ukraine.

2⃣ Western-style globalisation is coming to an end. Image
3⃣ #China’s rise is threatening the current US-led international order whose rules have been designed to benefit the West. Image
4⃣ The #UkraineRussiaWar️ has laid bare the West's intent to unite in order to suppress non-Western countries – China and Russia in particular. The #UnitedStates has made clear that “it will not rest until China is defeated”. Image
5⃣ The West’s decoupling from China is set to accelerate and will continue “for a long time to come”. China’s being hit in its turn by Russia-like sanctions remains a possibility. Image
6⃣ 🇨🇳 should thus “create a new internat. environment conducive to safeguarding 🇨🇳 nat. security and long-term develop.” It should do so by reassessing “🇨🇳 past tradition of multilateralism” and by shifting its diplomatic focus away from the West towards the Global South (+🇷🇺).
7⃣ This, however, does not mean completely shunning the West. Engaging and even developing cooperative relations with western countries should continue whenever possible. Image
8⃣ China should categorise its diplomatic relations with the world into “3 rings” and prioritise these as follows: 1. East Asia, Central Asia + the Middle East; 2. Other developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America; 3. Europe, the US and other industrialised countries. Image
9⃣ To foster this change, China should:

a) Encourage the emergence of a new international payment system, promote the internationalisation of the RMB and provide support for currencies other than the USD (such as the euro). Image
b) Upgrade the New Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

c) Establish a common energy market and payment network with other Asian countries (incl. the Middle East)
d) Strengthen both financial and security cooperation with other Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) members and Iran.

e) Deepen East Asia’s (as understood in its broadest sense) economic integration.
f) De-emphasise growth-driven strategies in favour of political and security-related ones. This will help reduce Western interference in the region.

g) Use the BRICS as a catalyst for South-South cooperation.
🔟 Quote: “The emergence of a new world-system and the deepening of South-South cooperation will allow China to enter the forefront of the world economy and politics.” Image
📣 To receive weekly insights from Chinese think-tank and academic circles on a range of international topics, you can subscribe here at no cost:
sinification.com/p/three-rings-…

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More from @thomasdggeddes

Apr 11
#Brazil’s president Lula will be travelling to #China this week and meeting Xi Jinping on Friday.

Why does Lula’s Brazil matter to China? And what are Chinese experts recommending Beijing do in order to strengthen its ties with Brasilia?

THREAD 🧵
sinification.com/p/what-china-e…
🔹Authors:

▫️ 7 researchers from the Institute of Latin American Studies, which is part of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

▫️ Lead auhtor: Zhou Zhiwei (周志伟) – Director of the Centre for Brazilian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Image
🔹Summary:

1⃣ Lula’s Brazil is seen as having fundamental political differences with the #UnitedStates.

2⃣ Under Lula, Brazil's diplomatic focus is expected to be reoriented towards the #GlobalSouth and, most importantly, away from the US.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 14
🇨🇳-🇷🇺 relations have almost always been marked by a certain amount of mutual distrust.

Feng and Wen's critique of Putinism is a useful reminder that both sympathisers and sceptics of 🇷🇺 most likely coexist within the confines of Zhongnanhai.

A SUMMARY 🧵
sinification.substack.com/p/a-damning-cr…
🔹 The authors:

▫️ Feng Yujun (冯玉军): Director of the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Fudan Univ. Former CICIR analyst (1994 to 2016).

▫️ Wen Longjie (文龙杰): Postdoc researcher at Fudan Dev. Institute and Chief Kazakhstan correspondent, China News Service.
🔹Summary:

1⃣ #Russia believes in the superiority of its culture and is on a Messianic mission to spread its conservative values to the rest of the world.

2⃣ Its turn towards conservatism was both a reaction against neoliberalism and a result of its failure to Westernise.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 9
This is what PKU Prof. Lu Feng (路风) was saying in January about foreign companies such as #ASML complying with US #chip export controls.

EXCERPTS 🧵
1⃣ “Since the #USA has used its ‘nuclear weapon’ against China, we should strike back and use our own ‘nuclear weapon’. More specifically, the US’s method of suppressing 🇨🇳 is to control the supply of chips. Well then, [in return], 🇨🇳 should and can control the demand for chips.”
2⃣ "If the US is forcing a tech and industrial #decoupling [from #China], then we should impose sanctions on all the foreign companies that are carrying out these orders to decouple from the Chinese market.”
Read 16 tweets
Mar 8
Fudan Prof. Jian Junbo (简军波) discusses the European Union's #StrategicAutonomy, 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 relations in 2023 and provides his government with a few suggestions.

THREAD 🧵
🔹EU #StrategicAutonomy according to Jian:

1. Benefits the development of #EU-#China relations by freeing the EU from the influence of “third parties” (i.e. the US).

2. In line with China’s desire for a multipolar world order.

However...
3. EU strategic autonomy also has a strong anti-#China element to it.

📢 “It is a double-edged sword for 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 relations and is to a certain extent an important causal factor in the conflict over 'values' between China and Europe."
Read 13 tweets
Mar 7
One year after #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine, Chinese experts assess the war's impact on 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 and 🇪🇺-🇺🇸relations and predict what may lie ahead.

Hint: Uncertainty prevails...

KEY TAKEAWAYS 🧵
sinification.substack.com/p/eu-china-rel…
1⃣ The #UkraineWar has hobbled the EU’s push for #StrategicAutonomy, but its desire to pursue this goal remains.

2⃣ The war has increased the EU’s dependence on and tilt towards the #UnitedStates. This trend is largely expected to continue.
3⃣ The war has accelerated the EU’s shift of emphasis to “competitor” and “rival” in its triadic “partner-competitor-rival” positioning on 🇨🇳.

4⃣ Beijing’s stance in the #UkraineRussiaWar has been misunderstood and has contributed to Europe’s growing antagonism towards Beijing.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 3
New op-ed by one of 🇨🇳's key voices 'communicating with the West', ex-PLA colonel Zhou Bo in the FT yesterday:

"Will the war in #Ukraine spill over into a third world war? The short answer is: not unless #China lends military support to #Russia."

1/7
ft.com/content/c01227…
"#Beijing and #Moscow’s 'unlimited' friendship has alarmed the west. But imagine for a moment: if two countries vow to develop their friendship, then how could they place limits on it?" 2/7
"Two of Beijing’s contributions have been particularly under-appreciated. First, not adding fuel to the fire. This war has served to prove that however close #China and #Russia might be, this is not an alliance." 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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