Thread by @politicalham

1/🧵 debunking @Alberta_UCP's claim that @albertaNDP net-zero grid by 2035 plan will cost $87 billion and "you're going to pay for it!"

AESO: net-zero is an investment opportunity. Interview w/AESO VP markets Miranda Keating-Erickson.
#AlbertaElection2023

2/We were discussing a 2022 AESO study that was based upon AESO's 2021 20-year load forecast.

*Cost of between $44 billion and $52 billion depending on one of three scenarios

3/*"almost 90% of that comes from the supply side of the equation, so that is the turnover in actual production of electricity, which is all PRIVATE INVESTMENTS."

4/"that's the potential to be ATTRACTING a lot of investment into Alberta."

@NaviusResearch, wouldn't the economic impact of 90% of $44B to $52B in new capital being invested by the private sector in wind and solar farms, battery storage, etc be positive for GDP?

5/"difference in cost across the three scenarios for the next 20 years, so not to 2035, but to 2041 so that you could compare apples to apples..."

@NaviusResearch, since AESO assumed 20 years for the capex instead of 12(?), how did that affect your modelling, if at all?

6/"...one of the advantages that Alberta has is that we have this competitive marketplace where private industry will make their investments, they'll decide what they're going to build. And I think ultimately at the end of the day, if we leverage those...

7/"...market forces of all of those different players competing with each other, I truly believe that that will get us to a place where we can do this in a more affordable way than by trying to pick today what the right technologies are going to be in 2035."

8/"Only 13% of the electricity in Alberta is consumed in people's homes. The VAST MAJORITY of our electricity in Alberta is consumed by commercial and industrial users."

9/Miranda also points out that globally power sectors are being transformed by new technologies like wind, solar, storage, but many others, too.

Predicting what a net-zero generation mix - and its costs - will look like in 2035 is impossible.

10/Bottom line: Alberta is in an election and the UCP is looking for scary headlines to make the NDP look bad.

The province's energy reality is much more complicated. If you want to explore AB's electricity future, the tweets below have links to more Energi Media interviews.

11/Alberta utilities use market power to more than double electricity costs

@bcshaffer, assistant econ prof @EconCalgary who specializes in electricity markets, climate policy and energy transitions, and co-author of “Why are power prices so darn high?”

12/@EvanPivnick of Clean Energy Canada explaining that a recent study shows wind, solar, storage to be cheapest way to generate electricity.

13/Why Alberta electricity fees are so high and what can be done about it

Dr. @kbiezenbos, faculty of law, university of Calgary, about her CBC op-ed, “Alberta needs a greener grid but access fees could swamp us if we don't fix the system.”

14/Clean electricity is a huge competitive advantage for Canada

@dalebeugin, Executive Vice President, Canadian Climate Institute, about his National Observer op-ed “Clean electricity is a must-have for business — and for Canada’s economic prosperity.”

15/Can Alberta reduce electricity bills? You bet, but not how you may think

Dr. @S_HastingsSimon, assistant professor and Director MSc in Sustainable Energy Development, University of Calgary.

16/There are 168 interviews about electricity, many of them about Canada or Alberta, in Energi Media's YouTube "Electricity" playlist.

youtube.com/playlist?list=…

17/I'll leave discussion of the Navius modelling to the economists.

But after all those interviews over 3 years, it's obvious to me the world is electrifying, which means Alberta needs 2x-3x more power by 2050.

We need a level-headed conversation about how to do that.