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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 16 • 4 tweets • 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The allegations are unlikely to cause the #Kremlin to remove #Prigozhin in the near term but can contribute to efforts to discredit Prigozhin. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar051523
#Prigozhin commands the #Wagner forces in #Donbas, and his removal would disrupt the #Russian lines in #Bakhmut — a risk that #Putin is unlikely to take. 2/
The #Kremlin is also unable easily to publicly remove & replace #Prigozhin as the de facto head of Wagner because #Wagner is an independent company and Prigozhin holds no official position in the #Russian government. 3/
Removing #Prigozhin from his control of #Wagner would ironically require asserting direct #Kremlin control of the mercenary group from which #Putin has been at pains to maintain formal distance. 4/4

isw.pub/UkrWar051523 Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 17
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched 6 Kh-47 #Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles from 6 MiG-31K aircraft at Kyiv, as well as 9 Kalibr cruise missiles and 10 land-based S-400 and Iskander-M missiles at other rear areas of Ukraine Russia overnight May 15-16.
2/ #Ukraine claims to have shot down all missiles, including all six Kinzhals (repeatedly touted by Russian forces as unstoppable) and nine total drones, including six Shahed-131/136s.
3/ It is unclear which systems Ukrainian forces used to shoot down the Kinzhals, but Ukrainian officials previously attributed the defeat of a #Kinzhal missile to US-provided #Patriot air defense system on May 4.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 17
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin attempted to downplay his reported cooperation with Ukrainian intelligence on May 15, stating that "in any war, exchanges are made, and this is not a secret for the warring parties." isw.pub/UkrWar051623
2/ #Prigozhin responded to a media inquiry about a leaked US intelligence report published in @washingtonpost that revealed that he attempted to disclose positions of Russian conventional forces to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for #Ukraine’s withdrawal from #Bakhmut.
3/ #Prigozhin stated that "in any war, exchanges are made, and this is not a secret for the warring parties” in an attempt to downplay his reported connections with the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR).
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 17
The reported Russian reinforcements to the #Bakhmut area suggest that #Russia continues to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives. 🧵(1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar051623
2/ Russian forces have also recently transferred elements of the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) to an unspecified area north of #Bakhmut, likely from positions along the Svatove-Kupyansk line.
3/ The movement of Russian forces from other sectors of the front to the #Bakhmut area is likely a response to persisting Russian concerns about the stability of frontlines in the area amid #WagnerGroup’s continued degradation in the offensive to capture #Bakhmut.
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 16
NEW: Russian forces have likely committed to reinforcing their tactical offensive effort in the #Bakhmut area despite #Ukraine’s apparent focus on limited and localized counterattacks. 🧵(1/9)

Latest w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar051623 ImageImageImageImage
2/ #Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed on May 16 that Russian forces have strengthened their forces in the #Bakhmut area to stabilize the situation...
3/ ...and a prominent Russian milblogger claimed that four unspecified Russian battalions have deployed to the flanks around #Bakhmut to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 16
Russian forces continued ground assaults in #Bakhmut and its outskirts on May 15, while Ukrainian forces are continuing defensive operations in the Bakhmut direction. isw.pub/UkrWar051523 ImageImage
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations within 9km northwest of #Bakhmut in the direction of Hryhorivka and Bohdanivka; within 14km southwest of Bakhmut in the direction of Ivanivske and Predtechyne; and in Bakhmut. Image
3/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in 30 combat clashes in the #Bakhmut direction and that Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions over 300 times.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 16
Eastern #Ukraine:

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured #Masyutivka, #Kharkiv Oblast (13km NE of #Kupyansk), and established a bridgehead on the west (right) bank of the #Oskil River. isw.pub/UkrWar051523 Image
2/ A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that a Russian assault group captured Masyutivka on May 14 and established a bridgehead on the opposite bank of the Oskil River immediately west of the settlement. Image
3/ Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted a successful raid on Ukrainian positions near Masyutivka and later withdrew, and that reports about the establishment of a Russian bridgehead are unconfirmed.
Read 5 tweets

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