2/ A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that a Russian assault group captured Masyutivka on May 14 and established a bridgehead on the opposite bank of the Oskil River immediately west of the settlement.
3/ Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted a successful raid on Ukrainian positions near Masyutivka and later withdrew, and that reports about the establishment of a Russian bridgehead are unconfirmed.
4/ ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation that Russian forces captured Masyutivka or have established positions anywhere on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River.
5/ Russian milbloggers argued that the Russian capture of Masyutivka would be tactically insignificant given that Ukrainian forces hold elevated positions in the area and could easily fire on Russian attempts to advance. isw.pub/UkrWar051523
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Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces launched 6 Kh-47 #Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles from 6 MiG-31K aircraft at Kyiv, as well as 9 Kalibr cruise missiles and 10 land-based S-400 and Iskander-M missiles at other rear areas of Ukraine Russia overnight May 15-16.
2/ #Ukraine claims to have shot down all missiles, including all six Kinzhals (repeatedly touted by Russian forces as unstoppable) and nine total drones, including six Shahed-131/136s.
3/ It is unclear which systems Ukrainian forces used to shoot down the Kinzhals, but Ukrainian officials previously attributed the defeat of a #Kinzhal missile to US-provided #Patriot air defense system on May 4.
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin attempted to downplay his reported cooperation with Ukrainian intelligence on May 15, stating that "in any war, exchanges are made, and this is not a secret for the warring parties." isw.pub/UkrWar051623
2/ #Prigozhin responded to a media inquiry about a leaked US intelligence report published in @washingtonpost that revealed that he attempted to disclose positions of Russian conventional forces to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for #Ukraine’s withdrawal from #Bakhmut.
3/ #Prigozhin stated that "in any war, exchanges are made, and this is not a secret for the warring parties” in an attempt to downplay his reported connections with the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR).
The reported Russian reinforcements to the #Bakhmut area suggest that #Russia continues to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives. 🧵(1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar051623
2/ Russian forces have also recently transferred elements of the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) to an unspecified area north of #Bakhmut, likely from positions along the Svatove-Kupyansk line.
3/ The movement of Russian forces from other sectors of the front to the #Bakhmut area is likely a response to persisting Russian concerns about the stability of frontlines in the area amid #WagnerGroup’s continued degradation in the offensive to capture #Bakhmut.
NEW: Russian forces have likely committed to reinforcing their tactical offensive effort in the #Bakhmut area despite #Ukraine’s apparent focus on limited and localized counterattacks. 🧵(1/9)
2/ #Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed on May 16 that Russian forces have strengthened their forces in the #Bakhmut area to stabilize the situation...
3/ ...and a prominent Russian milblogger claimed that four unspecified Russian battalions have deployed to the flanks around #Bakhmut to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs.
Russian forces continued ground assaults in #Bakhmut and its outskirts on May 15, while Ukrainian forces are continuing defensive operations in the Bakhmut direction. isw.pub/UkrWar051523
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations within 9km northwest of #Bakhmut in the direction of Hryhorivka and Bohdanivka; within 14km southwest of Bakhmut in the direction of Ivanivske and Predtechyne; and in Bakhmut.
3/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in 30 combat clashes in the #Bakhmut direction and that Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions over 300 times.
The #Kremlin is also unable easily to publicly remove & replace #Prigozhin as the de facto head of Wagner because #Wagner is an independent company and Prigozhin holds no official position in the #Russian government. 3/