ISW Profile picture
May 27 9 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The #Kremlin is likely reviving its information campaign to discourage continued Western aid to #Ukraine and to coerce the West into forcing Ukraine to accept concessions and negotiate on terms favorable to #Russia ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar052623
2/ The #Kremlin claimed on May 26 that #Putin expressed “the openness of the Russian side to dialogue on the political and diplomatic track, which is still blocked by #Kyiv and its Western sponsors” in a phone call with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio #Lula da Silva.
3/ #Putin’s statement does not indicate that #Russia is interested in pursuing negotiations with #Ukraine, and the #Kremlin has not established any serious grounds for negotiations nor abandoned its maximalist goals to force the Ukrainian government to capitulate.
4/ The Kremlin is likely attempting to intensify its false claims about its readiness to negotiate with Ukraine amidst the arrival of the Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui in Moscow on May 26 to discuss a negotiated settlement to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
5/ @WSJ reported that Li previously urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates during his visit to European states in the past week.
6/ @WSJ also reported that a (likely European, but unspecified) diplomat who spoke to Li explained that freezing the conflict was not beneficial to international interests and that Europe would not withdraw its support for Ukraine.
7/ @WSJ reported that another (likely European, but unspecified) diplomat claimed that #China’s main interests are ensuring Russian victory and ensuring that #Russia does not use nuclear weapons.
8/ The claimed interaction likely indicates that #China may be attempting to push the West to influence #Ukraine into accepting a ceasefire.
9/ #Russia is likely amplifying false interests in negotiations ahead of the planned UKR #counteroffensive in order to discourage continued Western aid to #Ukraine. ISW has reported extensively on Russia’s peace negotiation info operations to deter Western support for Ukraine.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

May 28
Mobilization & Force Generation Updates:

The Russian Ministry of Justice registered the civil society group “Council of Mothers of Wives” as a foreign agent on May 26, likely to curb resistance to #Russia's ongoing and future force generation efforts. isw.pub/UkrWar052723
2/ The “Council of Mothers and Wives” routinely advocated for their relatives serving in the Russian military by reaching out to local officials following the start of partial mobilization in late September 2022.
3/ #Putin previously tried to dull the informational impact of the group’s criticism of mobilization in late November 2022 by attending a meeting with hand-picked women in the Russian political sphere falsely presented as mothers of mobilized personnel. isw.pub/UkrWar112522
Read 4 tweets
May 28
Southern #Ukraine:

1/ Russian forces continued to target southern Ukraine with artillery, drone, and air strikes on May 27. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces’ primary tactic in southern Ukraine is counterbattery fire. isw.pub/UkrWar052723 ImageImage
2/ Ukrainian forces continued to strike rear logistical nodes in #Zaporizhia Oblast on May 27. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck Polohy and #Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast on May 27. Image
3/ The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) warned on May 26 that Russian forces are preparing to conduct large-scale provocations to create radiological danger at the #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). isw.pub/UkrWar052723 Image
Read 7 tweets
May 28
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations northeast of #Kupyansk and south of #Kreminna on May 27. Geolocated footage published on May 26 indicates that Russian forces likely advanced NW of Bilohorivka, #Luhansk Oblast (12km south of Kreminna). isw.pub/UkrWar052723 ImageImageImage
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 27 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Bilohorivka and Masyutivka, #Kharkiv Oblast (13km northeast of Kupyansk).
3/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces recaptured several recently lost positions southeast of Bilohorivka, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 28
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor #Girkin accused #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin of planning a coup against the current Russian leadership. isw.pub/UkrWar052723
2/ #Girkin openly accused #Prigozhin of planning to conduct a coup amid the upcoming Ukrainian #counteroffensive and of continuously violating Russian censorship laws against the discreditation of the Russian army and military command. isw.pub/UkrWar052723
3/ A member of #Girkin’s Angry Patriots Club claimed that the conflict between Russian Defense Minister Sergey #Shoigu and #Prigozhin is developing into a conflict between the Russian military and #Wagner forces but that #Putin is not paying attention.
Read 5 tweets
May 28
The Russian military command may be transferring #Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) forces to relieve #WagnerGroup forces in #Bakhmut city, which may decrease the tempo of Russian offensive operations on the #Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. isw.pub/UkrWar052723
2/ ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command has heavily committed a variety of DNR elements to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline. Russian attacks around Avdiivka-Donetsk City area appear to have been decreasing in recent days, which may be connected to the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
3/ The Russian offensives around #Avdiivka have been steadily decreasing since at least April 8 after the RU military command attempted to intensify offensive operations near the settlement in mid-March.
Read 5 tweets
May 27
Continued successful limited Ukrainian counterattacks on #Bakhmut’s flanks may complicate the Russian relief-in-place operation in Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar052623 ImageImageImage
2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of #Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut). ImageImage
3/ A prominent milblogger claimed that Ukrainian counterattacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka caused elements of the “Veterany” private military company (PMC) to retreat up to a kilometer from their previously held positions in the area.
Read 7 tweets

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