Thread by @TheStudyofWar

The #Kremlin is likely reviving its information campaign to discourage continued Western aid to #Ukraine and to coerce the West into forcing Ukraine to accept concessions and negotiate on terms favorable to #Russia ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar052623

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1662244084541534210

2/ The #Kremlin claimed on May 26 that #Putin expressed “the openness of the Russian side to dialogue on the political and diplomatic track, which is still blocked by #Kyiv and its Western sponsors” in a phone call with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio #Lula da Silva.

3/ #Putin’s statement does not indicate that #Russia is interested in pursuing negotiations with #Ukraine, and the #Kremlin has not established any serious grounds for negotiations nor abandoned its maximalist goals to force the Ukrainian government to capitulate.

4/ The Kremlin is likely attempting to intensify its false claims about its readiness to negotiate with Ukraine amidst the arrival of the Chinese Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui in Moscow on May 26 to discuss a negotiated settlement to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

5/ @WSJ reported that Li previously urged European officials to end the conflict in Ukraine before it escalates during his visit to European states in the past week.

6/ @WSJ also reported that a (likely European, but unspecified) diplomat who spoke to Li explained that freezing the conflict was not beneficial to international interests and that Europe would not withdraw its support for Ukraine.

7/ @WSJ reported that another (likely European, but unspecified) diplomat claimed that #China’s main interests are ensuring Russian victory and ensuring that #Russia does not use nuclear weapons.

8/ The claimed interaction likely indicates that #China may be attempting to push the West to influence #Ukraine into accepting a ceasefire.

9/ #Russia is likely amplifying false interests in negotiations ahead of the planned UKR #counteroffensive in order to discourage continued Western aid to #Ukraine. ISW has reported extensively on Russia’s peace negotiation info operations to deter Western support for Ukraine.