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DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents Total Return webcast "Dust in the Crevices" today at 1:15pm PT.
Stay tuned here for more.
#markets #macro #bonds
Stay tuned here for more.
#markets #macro #bonds
Jeffrey Gundlach: There is dust in the crevices of our financial institutions.
The debt ceiling has been raised 99 times since it started in 1913.
This method of getting along is getting pretty dusty.
The debt ceiling has been raised 99 times since it started in 1913.
This method of getting along is getting pretty dusty.
Gundlach: U.S. Federal Budget Balance as a percentage of GDP on a rolling 1-year basis: We've been in a trend toward worse and worse budget deficits as a percentage of GDP.
Gundlach: Here we are a supposedly growing economy running a very large deficit as if the U.S. was in a recession.
Gundlach: Washington needs to address these issues in the next few years.
Mr. Gundlach: Enormous wars have been characterized very large deficits.
Jeffrey Gundlach: The fiscal responses to recessions have gotten out of control.
.@DLineCap CEO Jeffrey Gundlach: With rising interest rates, the interest expense on the federal debt has been rising.
Many Treasury rates are up 400 basis points from their trough in 2020.
Many Treasury rates are up 400 basis points from their trough in 2020.
Jeffrey Gundlach: Interest rate expense is going to swallow all the U.S. tax receipts if the government stays on this track.
Gundlach: With more inflation in food and energy, consumers' credit card usage is going way up.
Gundlach: Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) Index looks full-on recessionary.
Mr. Gundlach: This has the look of the U.S. entering soon into the front end of recession.
Jeffrey Gundlach: Consumer expectations so far don't indicate an imminent recession, although economic conditions are ripe for recession.
Gundlach: Re. the inversion of the 2-year to 10-year spread in Treasury yields: maybe it has started to de-invert. If short rates start falling, that would be a sign that recession is at hand.
Jeffrey Gundlach: ISM New Orders looks very recessionary already.
.@DLineCap CEO Jeffrey Gundlach: Loan officer lending surveys show high correlation between tightening lending standards and recessions.
This data indicates by historic norms that the economy should be in recession within a year.
This data indicates by historic norms that the economy should be in recession within a year.
Gundlach: Unemployment is higher versus its 12-month moving higher, but not much. Bears continued watching.
Gundlach: U.S. ISM supplier delivery days are completely relieved -- one of the lowest levels in 30 year. Supply is greater than demand. Indicative of a weak economy.
Jeffrey Gundlach: Adults surveyed by Federal Reserve: big move up in people who feel they are worse off in terms of their financial condition.
Gundlach: Households receiving unemployment through direct deposit: rising faster now among high-income group.
Gundlach: In addition to firings, job replacement due to artificial intelligence might be a factor in these job losses.
Gundlach: Tightening lending standards translates with a loan growth contraction down the road.
Mr. Gundlach: Interest rate paid on short-term business loans has shot higher.
Another reason a recession is a high probability end of this year or next year.
Another reason a recession is a high probability end of this year or next year.
.@DLineCap's Jeffrey Gundlach: Bank failures as a percentage of GDP are close to levels that led in the past to financial distress and recessions.
Gundlach: Bank deposits are down by about $1 trillion. Money is moving into money market funds, especially government money market funds. At least the decline in bank deposits has leveled.
Gundlach: Unrealized losses at FDIC-insured institutions: it's a myth in the media that banks can hedge out the interest rate risk on their longer-duration Treasuries.
Mr. Gundlach: If the Fed continues raising rates, could lead to more dust-ups in the banking systems.
Gundlach: The money supply is the most negative it has been since the Depression.
At least that contraction could take pressure off inflation.
At least that contraction could take pressure off inflation.
Gundlach: CPI has been coming down very fast -- almost as fast as it went up.
Headline now below core inflation.
Headline now below core inflation.
Gundlach: If the Fed gets to 3% on YoY inflation, the Fed would be pretty happy with that.
.@DLineCap CEO Jeffrey Gundlach: I expect CPI will fall further.
Gundlach: Services is a huge slug of inflation. Food also. Energy is contributing deflation to the economy.
Services inflation tends to be pretty sticky.
Services inflation tends to be pretty sticky.
Gundlach: Shelter is a big piece of core inflation.
Gundlach: PCE is one of the easiest to manipulate inflation series.
Headline PCE though is about the same as headline CPI.
Headline PCE though is about the same as headline CPI.
Gundlach: Inflation will come down further, but not at the pace that the Fed wants to see.
DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: The Fed has quite a tightrope to walk.
Gundlach: Producer prices are down to where the Fed wants. PPI leads the CPI.
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