Thread by @PhilippMarkolin

#Information cascade alert!

The US #intelligence agencies are supposed to reveal all information they have with respect to the #OriginOfCovid

I wanted to use the opportunity to explain exactly what you will see happening in the media, no matter the content of those reports
🧵

First, let's talk about expectations.

From the get-go, it is absolutely clear that there is no #smoking gun or similar to be expected.

The intelligence services all had access to the same information and most assessments are low confidence, with 4 agencies favoring #zoonosis.

Within the 'manmade' mythology, too many unverified stories are taken as gospel truth.

Overall, the best LLs can hope for is that the IC can verify some #circumstantial evidence that they have spun into their #mythology; but honestly, I highly doubt that.

https://twitter.com/PhilippMarkolin/status/1668879734409768961

But let's pretend that is the case.

Let's say the IC found evidence that WIV workers had visited the #hospital. Does that prove anything?

Well, not really. Unless they were diagnosed with #Covid and went somehow to the #Huanan market, it just means they visited a hospital.

In China, the healthcare system is #hospital centered, and instead of going to a GP or similar, most Chinese visit a hospital, for things big and small. 🔽

Being to a hospital is not condemning unless one knows why the people went there.

In a big institute like the WIV, one...

...might even expect that from dozens of employees, a few might be getting sick, especially in November during flu season

So just having sick WIV employees (which, as of today, is still unverified) is not enough to satisfy an extraordinary claim they were 'patient zero' of Covid

In a similar spirit, let's pretend the IC found evidence that suggested the WIV had worked on more CoV projects that were previously appreciated.

Is that prove anything? Again, not really. A lab has many researchers and students, and some might go off on a hunch or try a small..

...side project that does not work out or is not good enough to get published. Some might even get forgotten (@edwardcholmes 😉) & resurface later to prove Zhengli was honest. 🔽

Unless it can be shown that any alleged work was directly related to SARS-CoV-2, it is irrelevant.

Point is, no matter what #circumstantial evidence the IC reveal might verify, if it does not matter to move the agencies on the #origins question, it will not be enough to sway the scientific estimates, which are entirely one-sided for #zoonosis given a detailed body of evidence.

Now let's talk about the more likely case:

The IC has nothing on offer, no new evidence, data, or compelling analysis, just a bag of uncertainty, a handful of talking points, and a feeble "cannot be disproven it leaked from a lab".

Does that mean zoonosis got more likely?
No.

Because the evidence is already entirely one-sided and only fools and #buffoons think that any magic "reveal" ever had the power to fundamentally change the game.

We do have detailed #evidence for zoonosis that can not be explained with any plausible #lableak scenario.

Alright, but I promised you to explain what will happen in the media, and it will be entirely #detached from the two scenarios outlined above.

First, no matter what the report says, #lableak advocates will claim vindication for the 700th time for no reason.

A sleuth of media #manipulators will get to work to #lie about, #spin, #doctor, #milk, #distort and #misrepresent the contents of the reveal in whatever shape they need it to sell to their audiences.

They will do this because they can get away with it & it brings engagements.

A minority of more responsible journalists, fact-checkers, and scientists will have a couple of shitty days trying to put the revelations into the appropriate context and will be harassed for it by #lableak and other anti-#science trolls who fell for the media manipulators.

About maybe a week later, the dust will have settled and the #mainstream media will get their assess up to claim in self-righteous #op-eds that actually, even after the IC reveal that did not bring anything, a "#lableak can not be excluded" & China is truly to blame for the mess

Depending on what sources you followed, what networks you were part of, and what side of the #lableak controversy you were on before, you will feel more confident and confirmed in your belief, be it #zoonosis, #lableak or "we will never know".

Because that is what always happens

The reality is that our beliefs are not fully our own; we get shaped by our information environment and the decisions of our peers, often in subtle ways beyond our conscious cognition.

The #originofcovid news cycle grabs attention & reshapes social networks via info #cascades

Given the incredible amount of media #manipulators, entrenched #conspiratorial communities & financial incentives of news media, I do not believe there is a productive public conversation to be had around this topic anymore

So if you don't want to be fooled, stick with #science.