The #NATOSummit failed to meet the historical moment - its heartbreaking for Ukraine, but makes all Europeans less safe & makes it more difficult to make the world safe for democracy.
There were positive steps which we must now transform into a platform for what we need
Short🧵
Washington & Berlin have chosen to make Ukraine's victory more costly in terms of money but also in terms of Ukrainian lives. It sends a weak deterrence signal & seems to concede (on spurious grounds) that Moscow has a veto on NATO enlargement.
Now, allies who want to do more and who understand that Ukraine's fight is our fight too need to step up and make a more meaningful security offer - such as extending the Joint Expeditionary Force to Ukraine once hostilities cease - announcing that now would help shorten the war.
Moscow would have an incentive to prolong the fighting to stop the expansion kicking in BUT as the Kremlin’s theory of victory is based on outlasting western support, extending the JEF would render their effort futile.
This would need to include a mutual defence element - not just providing weapons- and boots on the ground, as @BWallaceMP said their would be after the war.
Extending to Ukraine & Poland is the minimum but we should work to include France as well (&others if they want)
This Joint European Defence Initiative (#JEDI) would deter Russia, protect Ukraine, underwrite the investment needed for recovery, pave the way to strengthen as well as enlarge NATO & bolster European security.
@SCClemons comment last month on CEE having ‘massive gratitude to US for they’ve done & massive resentment for what they won’t do’ remains valid.
Ukrainian ‘gratitude’ has already been expressed in lives lost - they alone are fighting our fight for us & that can’t go on.
It’s also a ridiculous debate. Ukraine’s victory and Russia’s defeat are in the interest of all democracies. Especially NATO states. We should be jumping at the chance to do what we can not criticising Ukraine - they are dying for our free common future.
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This tweet from @ischinger points to some of the most serious failings of #Germany’s foreign policy -of which he has helped set the tone. They must to be addressed if there is to be a real #Zeitenwende -& if 🇩🇪is to protect its interests & properly contribute to a safe Europe🧵
The view expressed here 1. Ignores views of non-US allies 2. Shirks Responsibility 3. Continues vicious cycle of inadequate European security provision 4. Reactive 5. Miscalculates interests & ignores values.
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1. It ignores the views of all allies other than the #US.
- Many allies including the #NCEE states, the #UK & #France all pushed for Ukraine to be given a membership perspective, the latter two recently calling for a fast track. 2/
'Security Guarantees' for #Ukraine are a hot topic - but it's a false debate.
NATO membership is the only viable option - but there's no consensus.
So we need an interim solution:
⏩We should extend the #JEF & transform it into a
'Joint European Defence Initiative' (#JEDI)
🧵1/
In this new policy brief for @dgapev
-I show why #NATO membership for #Ukraine is the only way in the medium-term
& analyse the available options for the interim 2/ dgap.org/en/research/pu…
From the Cold War to the present day #NATO has proven essential to the defense of democracies. Powerful capabilities & high-level peer pressure that acts as a form of collective spine-stiffening make it the most credible deterrent against authoritarian aggression in Europe. 3/
#Germany’s first National Security Strategy was published today.
A short 🧵 of reflections on what is, overall, a disappointing document (even taking account of lower expectations) - but also has some interesting & positive points to work with.
But, I want to draw attention to some other issues
2/
Even though there will be no national security council, this is clearly a strategy by committee - there are LOTS of very different items included [a fault of many other strategies too] but in this case there are competing worldviews trying to be squeezed into one document
3/
1. Ukraine's war is our war - & must be won.
That means restoring UA's 1991 borders & ensuring UA's ability to defend them - & the people within them.
2. After victory we have to get #Ukraine into #NATO & the #EU as fast as possible.
- As @SwedishPM has said:
This should be merit based but cannot again be an excuse for going soft or going slow on UA's accession.
- we have to institutionally tie our future to UA's.
3. We have to overcome any residual fears of #Ukraine's victory and #Russia's defeat.
As @EliotACohen said in Warsaw - RU must lose & know it has lost:
on the battlefield, its offensive military capability for 10 years & has lost Ukraine for good.
Is #Germany's #Zeitenwende
a) "a Fundamental Change?"
b) 🇩🇪's emergence as a "Leading Power"?
c) "a mere buzzword"
d) "bullshit"
* its been described as all those things
- but how to judge & why does it matter? A 🧵 1/10 ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
📷Michael Lucan CC 3.0
Olaf #Scholz' 'turning point' speech in Feb '22 declared #Russia’s full-scale invasion of #Ukraine a 'watershed moment' (#Zeitenwende") -something happening to #Germany & others- but also set out the Zeitenwende as a task for🇩🇪 to develop new capabilities & a new approach.
2/10
There were 5 key elements in this initial framing (broadly speaking): 1) Support for #Ukraine 2) Bolstering #Germany's Defence 3) Diversification of Energy Supply (esp away from🇷🇺!) 4) A New Approach to Authoritarian States 5) Getting 🇩🇪's role in the #EU, #NATO &🌍right
3/10
There's been criticism of the detail (esp re #Poland, which has already delivered Leos) - but @JeremyCliffe's main point is right.
▶️I'd actually take it further (it's not about #Germany but about #Ukraine), which is why we need to talk about #Finland🧵
I've repeatedly praised #Finland's approach to standing up #Russia & have written on its own #Zeitenwende in joining #NATO.
I've also repeatedly praised @MarinSanna as a figurehead of #NeoIdealism - who's been wonderfully clear on how & why #Ukraine must win & RU must lose
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So, to be clear, this is not a general critique of🇫🇮or '🇫🇮 bashing'!
- BUT on the tank issue, I think #Finland has got it wrong.
- According to public info they have agreed to send
3 Patria Leopard2R heavy mine breaching tanks
-But NO #Leopard2 MBTs ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
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