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I’ve talked a lot about what roll call votes don’t capture in politics, but one thing I haven’t mentioned: intensity of preference. 1/N
There’s a tendency to equate poll numbers and roll call vote tallies as reflections of preferences w/ intensity normally distributed. 2/
This, of course, is nonsense. Underlying issues often have differential intensities among proponents and opponents. 3/
And opinion polls (say POTUS approval) often mask intensity skews, even when they include “strongly approve” type answers. 4/
Example: Some people oppose gun control. Some people favor gun control. But the intensity skews MASSIVELY toward opposition. 5/
And this goes a long way to explain legislative outcomes on gun control, even in face of (some) polls that shows majorities in favor. 6/
Opponents of gun control are (1) well organized; (2) spend more money and time voicing their opinion; and (3) single-issue vote. 7/
There are gun control types who do those things, but nowhere the numbers who do it on the other side. Gun control support is soft. 8/
That is, gun control is (often) a popular position (pending the details), but it’s not a particularly widely held intense preference. 9/
And so few MCs are likely to lose an election opposing gun control, even in districts opposed. MANY Members might by supporting it. 10/
And yes, NRA blah blah corporate gun makers blah blah, but it’s mostly BS. Gun rights folks have intense preferences, & that's huge. 11/
And that gives them outsized power and influence. Period. 12/
This example generalizes in all sorts of ways. Elite behavior. POTUS approval. Agenda setting. Caucus elections. 13/
People who feel strongly about an issue tend to have outsized power via all the political activities that aren’t 1 man 1 vote. 14/
And that’s a whole of things: time, money, willingness to speak up, unwillingness to shut up, etc. 15/
And so another way to think about GOP congressional support of Trump is with this language: the support is not INTENSE in any way. 16/
Member X may or may not be willing to defend POTUS on a Sunday show. But if not intensely behind him, other priorities may intervene. 17/
And those other things can be a simple as “I’d rather get 2 extra hours of sleep” or “I told my kids I’d take them swimming.” 18/
And *most* of politics has this feature. Just not the small number of aspects that lend themselves to aggregate numerical analysis. 19/
And, without getting into it: this is almost an unalloyed good. Voting doesn't capture intensity; it's good other parts of politics do. FIN
