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Here's my take on this new Legatum Institute paper on UK trade after Brexit 1/x
2 The tl;dr version: "We are the world"
3 But they use a lot of trade wonk jargon to say that. Let's start with the list of 5 "trade leader" points. Point 1 is from another planet. 
4 In our timeline, we have Trump, who does *not* have a trade liberalisation agenda. Quite the opposite - thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/…
5 Points 2 and 5 assume that non-EU countries will leap into the Brexit talks to battle on the UK's behalf. Unicorns with foreign accents.
6 Points 3 and 4 are just "we sell more to them than they sell to us", translated into trade wonkese.
7 While the UK and EU27 have a mutual interest in preserving as much as possible of their trade relationship, I can't see € demand vanishing
8 LI also think the EU27 would just shrug if UK stops talking about UK/EU27 citizens' rights.
9 Art 50 clock will run out because of the wicked EU. Did EU also make May call that early "epic fail" election after triggering Art 50?
10 Standard rhetoric: the UK and EU27 start from the same regulatory place. Correct - but irrelevant. The point is where they are *going*.
11 Thrust of the paper: UK can do mega non-EU trade deals if it drops EU regulatory standards. No mention of consumer/environmental impact.
12 And no direct mention of loss of access to the UK's largest market (EU) as a result. But this will be solved by unicorns...
13 Here they are! A novel, untested WTO law argument that the EU will have to mutually recognise divergent UK standards in eternity.
14 The idea of the UK joining the EEA isn't in a fait accompli, needs EU27 approval. Dudes, look in the mirror.
15 Much talk of "protectionist" EU (again, have they met Trump?)...which will simultaneously grant the UK every trade concession it asks for
16 One example from New Zealand proves that the WTO and unilateral liberalisation are the bee's knees...
17 ...but the next page sings the praises of FTAs. Which is it?
18 And EFTA bans the Swiss from controlling their tariffs (first para) and simultaneously gives them full control over tariffs (last para) 😐
19 There's a big orange blind spot in the report: arguing for joining NAFTA while Trump insists on renegotiations, and criticising...
20 >the EU for being reluctant in the talks on the Trade in Services Agreement. Dudes, Trump immediately *stopped those talks dead*.
21 At the report's heart: literally a faith based argument for the "miracle" of free trade in British history.
22 Never mind the colonialism that was at the heart of that economic history - or the many changes in manufacturing and services since.
23 Overall: the report avoids the weirdest IDS/Redwood stuff, and has only one falsehood (on EFTA states' tariffs, where it self-corrects).
24 It recognises the case for an interim agreement and future FTA, rather than unilateral tariff abolition fantasies.
25 But it's unrealistic about the Art 50 talks, and overstates enthusiasm for trade liberalisation in the UK & worldwide, especially the USA
26 In an ideal world, Trump would be jailed by March 2019, & his hotels used to house refugees. But we can't gamble UK trade policy on this.
27 UK govt needs policy advice that objectively considers the strengths and weaknesses of keeping link to EU regulation, not woolly thinking
28 Should we end by reminding ourselves that Legatum has an alleged conflict of interest?
Yes. Yes we should. //
(ht @LeaveHQ)
Yes. Yes we should. //
(ht @LeaveHQ)
