Here's a few slides from my Future of EVs talk at the BNEF Summit last week. Feedback welcome! #BNEFSummit
1/ We're expecting around 1.6 million EVs sold this year. Battery electrics are pulling ahead of plug-in hybrids, driven by China.
1/ We're expecting around 1.6 million EVs sold this year. Battery electrics are pulling ahead of plug-in hybrids, driven by China.
2/ There are now 14 countries where EVs were above 1% of total vehicle sales. Still small, but most countries cross over 2% around a year after crossing 1%.
3/ China and Europe are pulling ahead on EV adoption. Expect this to continue.
4/ The Chinese government wants ICE sales to flatline from now to 2025. They want EVs to represent all new vehicle sales growth. If you are a global automaker and you need a growth story, you increasingly need an EV story.
5/ Battery prices are way down since 2010, but the days of 30% annual drops are probably over. Rising material prices will start to impact cell costs this year. We're still estimating a ~10% reduction/kWh at the pack level for 2018.
6/ The number of EV models is rising fast. Not all of them are high volume models, but consumer choice really matters here and this will have a big impact around 2020.
7/ Automaker commitments to electrification are also rising. Some of these EV sales targets look difficult to achieve.
8/ The consensus view on EV adoption is rising. But this will still take time.
9/ There are now almost 600,000 public charging points installed globally. Remarkable progress, but still several hurdles.
10/ Not many countries can afford to do what Norway has done, but the first 5-6% adoption is still probably the hardest.
11/ With all the focus on passenger vehicles, it's easy to miss what's going on in other segments. E-bus adoption is going to go quickly.
That's it! Full presentation here if anybody wants to know more: about.bnef.com/future-energy-…
