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ABD Tarım Dışı İstihdam verisi. Birçok kaynakta TDİ olarak da görürsünüz. Her ayın ilk Cuma günü 16:30'da açıklanıyor. ABD Mart ayında saatlerini bir saat geriye aldığı için önümüzdeki birkaç ay 15:30'da açıklanacak.
Bu Cuma günü 15:30'da ABD Tarım Dışı İstihdam verisi var. Piyasalarda hareketliliğin çok yüksek olduğu ve özellikle paritelerin, bazen borsa endekslerinin sert tepkiler verdiği veridir. Peki nedir tarım dışı istihdam verisi?
ABD Tarım Dışı İstihdam verisi, ücretli çalışan toplam çalışan sayısındaki değişimi verir. Yani işgücü piyasasındaki genişleme ve daralmayı gösteren bir veridir. Ancak bu verinin içinde, evde çalışanlar, devlet memurları, tarım işçileri bulunmaz.
Read 9 tweets
Hi all 😀It has been a good year! 2019 will be difficult for world economy. A lot of fall outs ahead from disinflationary environment. Get ready for last #HZupdates from the old year 👍
As I laid out at the beginning of 2018, we have seen a rally in #DXY. The USD rally is not over yet. I expect the rally to continuing into 2019 - reaching min. 107 before the rally is over, This will have deflationary consequences across various markets #HZupdates
#EURUSD topped early 2018 and has dropped to a low of 1.121 by Nov. But - this is not the end of this major Bear market for Euro. LT-target remains 0.91 likely to be reached by Q2/Q3 2019 #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Last week in markets was truly exciting! Some important signals were provided - which sets us up for some truly great trades 😀Before all leaves FinTwit to relax and enjoy during Christmas - I will provide you with some #HZupdates. Stay tuned! 👍
#EURUSD has been showing a lot of weakness. The LT-perspective is same as it has been for a very long time. Target of ~0.91 to be reached some time during 2019. Coming decline will bring about massive capitulation #HZupdates
#EURUSD - I have had 2 scenarios for how price will develop coming days/weeks. This scenario seems to hold most credibility. We could see small bounce next week - but soon EURUSD will crash in a strong wave lower. Great opportunity to go short is closing in #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Hi all 😀Great week in the market. Coming weeks will be very interesting - but likely decieving imo. Rally/drops in one direction only to shift direction again. Ready for some #HZupdates on #SP500, #EURUSD, #Gold, #Bonds etc.? Stay tuned!
Today I want to take on both #USD Bulls and Bears 😀 I hear a lot of either "USD hegemony is over" or "USD is going to soar for years to come". I think the truth is somewhat in between - but with a slight advantage to the Bull's side #HZupdates
Looking at the very long perspective, DXY has been in a decline. But - it has formed an ending diagonal, and the drop below trendline in 2008 was very likely THE bottom. Since it has been in wave 1 of the new Bull Market - which has formed a leading diagonal #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets
#EURUSD rally is coming! I have been calling for this for few weeks, and we are getting closer. I expected it to begin >1.130. After breaker this level, I however think, we will see another low in EUR before the pair takes off. Hence, weakness (initially) before rally #HZupdates
Callings of crash in #EURUSD now. I have been of opinion, that we will see significant rally first taking us much higher than most traders anticipate. The rally is the last wave in wave 2. The last chance to get out before the EUR begins crash towards LT-target of 0.91 #HZupdates
Like EUR, #Gold #XAUUSD will also crash. However, we are about to set out for significant rally, which will bring Bulls back out with claims of USD 1500+. This will not be the case and when Gold tops, the decline will be strong. I have updated my LT-target to 750 USD #HZupdates
Read 11 tweets
#XAUUSD Fed hike/QT create toxic deflationary environment. Liquidity is melting away like ice in Sahara. This creates strong downward force on commodities and PM. You may remember this EW-count for Gold I have kept since 2013. Crash will begin soon. But first rally! #HZupdates
#SP500 There is little doubt in my mind, that a major Bear market has begun. The ABC-correction will be on entire mega-struture. EW tells us, that wave A likely retraces to bottom of wave 4 - before significant bounce. This part of the bear market is deflationary phase #HZupdates
#SP500 The final bottom of the major Bear is a few years down the road. Different targets are possible. Min. decline will be to 1500-area - but pot. lower. Wave A is deflationary phase. B bounce due to CB intervention. C caused be stagflation #HZupdates
Read 3 tweets
Good morning 😀 Another interesting week in the market. Last week, I expected SP500 to set up a relief rally. It did - but what is the outlook ahead? And the Euro....everybody was so bearish the Euro this week. What happens next? Ready for some #HZupdates?
#SP500 the big picture, I think we have the beginning of a major Bear market. We have 5 waves up since 2009 - and this is a major 5(red) top. Hence, the correction is on the entire structure. Will unfold in 3 waves (ABC). Three possible target areas. #HZupdates
#SP500 Wave A of major Bear will unfold in 5 waves. We may have seen wave 1(red) of that decline, and are currently in making of wave 2(red). This may take some weeks to unfold. If this is right, then one of the crashes, we will experience during this bear, waits ahead #HZupdates
Read 15 tweets
#EURUSD As expected weeks back, we have seen EUR weakness in current wave b in the correctional abc-structure of wave 2. This correction (wave 2) is not done yet! We still need wave c - which will be a strong rally. LT-target remains same: min. ~0.91 by mid-2019 #HZupdates
#XAUUSD ran ahead of EURUSD in the rally up towards it's wave 2 target. We are not quite there yet. Few more days (weeks?) before a major top for Gold. I cannot emphasize this enough. Now is the time you need to get out of Gold. Coming wave 3 down will be strong #HZupdates
#XAUUSD LT-target remains same = 825 by mid-2019 #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets

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