Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #qe

Most recents (24)

All you pointy-head PhD types and other academics now issuing mea culpas for ‘not understanding’ the #inflation dynamic: we warned you from the very off that more $$ + less supply + capital destruction/impairment would only NOT lead there if the QE/fiscal flood ...
..held perforce partly in abeyance, were later, upon cessation of ‘house arrest’, used to pay down debt & so self-extinguish itself.

If that unlikelihood did NOT eventuate - if Hyper-#QE were not terminated/reversed -how was the present bleak situation NOT to be foreseen??

As for the belated recognition that the disease has now metastasized to a wide range of raw inputs & production goods -increasingly to now-operative services as well as classic #inflation outlets- we were emphasising this well over a year ago while you were all “#transitory
Read 6 tweets
With respect to the data, #coreCPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.6% month-over-month and at a high 6% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, headline #CPI data printed at a strong 0.6% month-over-month and came in at 7.5% year-over-year, the greatest increase over a 12-month period since February 1982.
Additionally, the @federalreserve’s favored measure of #inflation, #corePCE, increased 0.5% in December, bringing the year-over-year figure for the measure to 4.9%, as of that month.
Read 15 tweets
Part of a common misconception: Europeans have always had a coherent strategy, that is NOT to become militarily independent. That makes sense, but not at the force-on-force level: (/) @Halsrethink @nglinsman @RobertMCutler @vtchakarova @pietercleppe @Danjsalt @moutet
Ostensibly this enabled them to quieten the leftist/pacifist part of their political spectrum (remember the Euromissiles fracas?) but again, that was only a superficial issue. There was a real one tough. (/)
Economically and on a technological level, Europe was perfectly capable of producing a military instrument on a par with WHATEVER US contingent was planned to be deployed to Europe in a conflict.(/)
Read 8 tweets
Today’s #inflation report continued to reinforce the theme that gaudy #price gains are not standing in the way of demand.
It is a very rare time in history, in fact, most people operating in #markets haven’t seen this sort of demand outstripping supply in the real #economy in their careers, with some areas seemingly depicting a dynamic suggesting that “price is no object.”
Clearly, #inflation has been escalating for a number of months due to #shortages of supply in areas such as #housing, #commodities, semiconductors, new and used cars, etc., and those supply shortages are mostly still in place today.
Read 12 tweets
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents:

Just Markets 2022 - I Feel Young Again

Today at 1:15pm PT, register here:…

#macro #markets #stocks #FX #bonds #commodities #rates #inflation #Fed #QE #bitcoin

Live recap thread⬇️
Jeffrey Gundlach: 2021 might end up running 7% year on the CPI

#inflation #QE #Powell #fed #hikes #rates
Jeffrey Gundlach: Low interest rates coupled with inflation generating negative interest rate.

#JustMarkets2022 #CPI #QE #Fed
Read 48 tweets
In 1995 State Pension Age for #50sWomen was increased from 60 to 66 in one fell swoop

It was decided that those women were NOT entitled to be informed of such a life-changing decision

Resulting in:
💥Retirement Annihilated
💥Stress / Illness
💥Heat Or Eat
💥No Dignity Image
💥No Respect
💥No Independence
💥No Rights
💥No Dignity
💥No Security
💥Women Now Being Kept By Partner After Lifetime Of Independence
💥Women Having To Sell Their Home or Run Up Massive Debt
💥Women At Risk Having To Work In A Pandemic
💥Early Deaths Image
At the very time that #50sWomen were having 6 years SP stolen; from 1983 to 2018 almost 9.4m MEN were awarded 5 years' NI contributions enabling them to retire 'EARLY'

HOW is this #EQUALITY? WHY is it acceptable?

👇 👇 👇 👇 ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Thread: it is , anyway, only a costly loan son of #QE, and unintended consequences abound. Here are some, in no particular order: (/)
@Halsrethink @amlivemon @nglinsman @chigrl @DavidBCollum @DiMartinoBooth
1. of course, there are not enough super rich to go around so this would trickle down to middle income / middle wealth families. Moreover, will pension plans be excluded? #401K, #IRAs? (/)
2. but let's assume there are: what will be the evaluation price? taxing EARNED financial income means that demand has balanced the supply generating that income. In this case, since no stake gets sold, that won't happen.(/)
Read 8 tweets
Beyond immediate inflationary pressure and quarterly corporate profits abroad, the counterintuitive shift strengthens producers leverage in the supply-chain as well as creating potential trade/socio-economic instability #uncertainty #Fed #business #dollarindex
Read 4 tweets
What can cause the market to crash 70%+? I've been thinking more and more about this question as almost nobody, except @DaveHcontrarian, thinks it's a possibility.

Important thread⬇️for anyone invested in $BTC $ETH $SPY $QQQ #FANG or any other risk asset.
Let's start off by saying that I am in no way giving advice on what to do to prepare for a potential crash in the markets.

I am only giving my thoughts on what could happen that would lead to a massive correction and how I would not be surprised if it did.
Let's take a step back and look at the current environment:
-> Retail speculation at all time highs, look at any highly leveraged stock with worthless equity and madness going on in #crypto land and #NFTs
-> #liquidity near alltime highs, consumers flush with cash from stimmys
Read 16 tweets
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.

What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!

I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
#Commodities, #freight, #carbon - and a whole lot besides - sure do cost a lot more, these days.
Read 14 tweets
India #RBI formally launches #QE:

▪️ Named 'Government Securities Acquisition Programme', G-SAP 1.0
▪️ Commits to specific amt of G-Sec purchases (INR 1.0 trn in Q1 FY2021-22)
▪️ At annualized INR 4 trn, that is ~7% of RBI Balance Sheet BS (Fed's $1.44 trn QE => ~19% BS)

▪️ While RBI prefers 10yr yield to be ard 6.0%, formal Yield Curve Control YCC targets specific yld for specific tenor (BOJ Japan & RBA Australia) => unknown amt of bond purchase to meet yld target
▪️ RBI's G-SAP more QE (pre-announced amt) than YCC

G-SAP v/s OMO?
▪️ Practically not much diff but RBI generally does not commit to purchase amt under OMO
▪️ OMO more for liquidity mgmt => inject as well as absorb liquidity
▪️ QE purchase necessarily injects liquidity; targets backend ylds => BS expansion => Reserve Money ⬆️

Read 5 tweets
Thread: This phrase should be sculpted on the #ECB building and both #EU and national parliament. However, it's only partially correct. @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @dlacalle_IA @bondstrategist @bondstrategist @AlessandroPonz4 @jeuasommenulle @DiMartinoBooth
First, it must be said clearly that while Economist use math, it's a humanistic discipline and not a "science" when taken as a whole, no matter how much you stuff the syllabus with difficult scientific courses.(/)
Anyone involved in the Banking regulation, while quite probably won't admit it under physical torture, would admit that the more "improved" according to "innovation" it got the more difficult it has been to ward off the system from collapsing.(/)
Read 12 tweets
THREAD: in fact, one of the worst aspects of #QE is that, by carrying a huge size bias, it is the ultimate anticompetition clause: only the big can access money.(/) @Halsrethink @nglinsman @bondstrategist @DiMartinoBooth @dlacalle_IA @amlivemon @DavidBCollum
If you are an established company with a medium to big balance sheet, you not only can afford the paperwork (internal ratings, anyone?), but YOUR risk premium is compressed by Central Banks.(/)
Meanwhile, smaller companies and prospective new entrants cannot and will not find funding, since at that earlier stage there is a level of "funding cost incompressibility" given the risks involved.(/)
Read 7 tweets
True, but it doesn't capture one thing: fixed income investors have been facing a bleak future for over a decade, since 2008, to be precise. (/) @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @Halsrethink @amlivemon @DiMartinoBooth @bondstrategist
And the old man knows, because as the most perceptive of you have realised, he did NOT name banks within those investors. Because in 2008, the pick was between "banks " and investors. (/)
It's yesterday to me since I am almost 60, but people may not know how dire the situation was, especially for bond investors. Equities were smashed to a pulp. An equivalent disaster went on in bonds... with a twist.(/)
Read 14 tweets
THREAD: at some point, the #FED and the other central banks will have to change status. It might take a creash to do it.(/) @amlivemon @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @Halsrethink @bondstrategist @DiMartinoBooth @DavidBCollum
1. they might either fall under an higher supervisory authority checking every financial aspect of their activity apart from setting official rate and providing liquidity though banks and have, for example, ALL influence of banking instruments sold wrested away.(/)
2. since their activity has been for over a decade not "policy neutral", they might be forced to become "elected officials", shorn from their patina of indipendence they voluntarily discarded. In fact, at least in the #EU, they might be a first: (/)
Read 8 tweets
Citibank 1/5: #AUD: Where does #RBA go in 2021 and beyond? - the RBA Governor concedes that it will take years before it achieves its inflation and employment goals. Despite the meaningful upgrade to the activity outlook, underlying inflation—at 1.25% in 2021 and 1.5% in 2022—
Citibank 2/5: is expected to remain below the Bank’s 2%-3% tget through the forecast horizon. Moreover, there’s still excess spare capacity in labor market; the unemployment rate forecast of 5.25% by the end of next year is still above Bank’s NAIRU (natural rate of unemployment)
Citibank 3/5: estimate of 4.5%. RBA’s balance sheet is set to expand further...the total size of the RBA’s balance sheet is set to increase from its current level of $AU330bn to around AU$600bn by November, or close to 30% of nominal GDP
Read 5 tweets
Rural Funds $RFF $RFF.AX is a Best In Class agricultural #REIT when compared with global peers. 👩‍🌾🧑‍🌾Strong dividends, strong growth in farmland and water valuations, and backed by real assets as a hedge against inflation. Worried about #QE or #MMT? Time for a deep dive, hay! 👇 Image
1. Macro: Global food demand needs to increase by 71% before 2050 to keep up with population growth and increasing wealth / caloric consumption. Land is scarce, deteriorating (e.g soil loss), and #climatechange is reducing food production particularly in marginal areas. Image
2. Macro: Food security is a heavily politicised area, because food insecurity leads to political insecurity. Significant subsidies, regulations, and red tape barriers often drive up asset values to increase investments. Think of it as a security blanket on your investment..
Read 22 tweets
THREAD: you might not think so, but this is also part of the #QE side effects. Artificially suppressed rates defer costs way after an incoming administration bent on wayward spending has come and gone. (/) @bondstrategist @nglinsman @Halsrethink
on a practical policy level, #QE is akin to trying to solve your house bug problem by liberally spraying carpets with breadcrumbs. do YOU eat bread? sure. But that's no reason to behave like that.(/)
But the best is for later. There is a feedback loop where through higher taxes, regulation and legislation, money must be kept in political hands, be they "private" or directly public. Ladies and Gentlemen here's the deal:(/)
Read 4 tweets
Please tell me if I get the big picture on #Eurozone #QuantitativeEasing right.

1. The EU is a historical political project
2. The #ECB is a child of that project and understandably protects it until its last breath
3. Protecting it means
a) ensuring no member to go bust
b) sovereign spreads to remain at a managable levels

4. These in turn requires heavy purchases of sovereign bonds, on a scale that can only be done with newly created money #M0 i.e. #QE.
5. That money inevitably blows a bubble on nearly all markets of investable assets
6. ...which side effect the ECB does not like but sees no alternative to keep the Eurozone together
7. ECB also needs to keep printing money as #FED is printing money too, and the #EUR would otherwise appreciate, creating huge competitiveness problems for the entire Eurozone.
Read 4 tweets
FWIW, I’m relatively relaxed about the fiscal costs of #Covid: borrowing will drop sharply as the economy recovers, the #debt burden is manageable, and there’s no need for #austerity to pay for it.

But this isn’t a green light to abandon fiscal responsibility altogether… (1/12)
For a start, the long-term outlook is more worrying.

The #OBR’s Fiscal Sustainability Report (July) includes scenarios where unchecked increases in public spending on health, adult social care and pensions could see debt balloon to more than 400% of GDP in 2070... (2/12)
In the meantime, even if the government doesn’t face the same financial constraints as a household, high public spending and borrowing still has other costs, including the poor allocation of resources and the risk of runaway #inflation… (3/12)
Read 12 tweets
Patience and Diligence - Gold Technical Analysis: "Make the market prove to you it wants to do something, don’t try and prove to the market it should do something." - by @TraderStef for #CrushTheStreet #TechnicalAnalysis #Gold…
Read 14 tweets
Super infographie de notre #économie, de ses dysfonctionnements et de ses dérives.

Je vais tenter d'expliquer avec mes mots et mes connaissances. C'est pas gagné mais bon allons-y.

Si on lui en a donné les moyens, la #BCE pourrait créer de l'argent et financer en direct :

- les États : en faisant un don à hauteur de 3% du PIB par ex. plutôt que de laisser les Etats s'endetter et avoir un déficit du même ordre

- les citoyens via la monnaie hélicoptère
Mais voilà, les traités européens lui interdisent de le faire. Le robinet est fermé 🚱

Alors la BCE crée quand même son argent magique en tapotant sur son petit ordinateur et rachète des titres de dette sur le marché des obligations. Là le robinet est ouvert 🚰
Read 26 tweets
THREAD: Quando "muore" lo stato? ovvero, perchè le imposizioni sul patrimonio, successione in testa, le ha inventate Tafazzi. (1/10)
@liberioltre @ALESSIO_ARGIOLA @d_stevanato @LorenaLVilla
Leggo, con ENORME raccapriccio, l'incipit di questo articolo."Questa bassissima tassazione[..], incentiva il risparmio a scapito dei consumi e riduce le entrate dello stato[..], contribuendo due volte all'aumento delle disparità tra cittadini." (2/10)
Questa frase accetta come assunti accertati una serie di cose:
1. Consumo = buono, risparmio = no buono;
2. Lo stato è un migliore allocatore di risorse dei cittadini;
3. non esiste aumento di disparità buono, ma solo cattivo.
Read 12 tweets
The #Fed Playbook
Oct. 17, 2020

The Federal Reserve is back in business.

So I guess it's time for a thread. 👇👇👇

1/ This week the balance sheet stands at $7.15 trillion which is close to its all time high.

But new records are incoming.
2/ Since the start of the #Fed intervention this year they have added $2.9 trillions to the system.

Looks like a lot but in percentage terms it is a much smaller expansion than in 2008.
3/ After 2008, all that money added to the system has inflated the valuation of various financial assets but most of all the stock market.
Read 6 tweets

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