The more you know, the less governments can pretend you don't care. -DG
Do not go gentle into that good night. -DT
Nov 16, 2019 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
An Australian-style points-based actually give the UK government *less* control over immigration than it currently has. Sounds counter-intuitive? Read on...
Currently, UKGov offers visas based on a classification system - with various caps on the number of visas that can be granted in each class. (There is also a "general" classification, but since this thread is comparing with a points-based system, I'll not cover that)
Nov 12, 2019 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
The different tactical voting sites all use different methodologies. BfB uses MRP, which is analysis based on a large sample of recent polling and has shown to be more accurate than "normal" polling. They make a recommendation based on which party has the best chance of winning.
Most of the "normal" polling services (YouGov, Survation, etc.) take polls but are not making tactical voting recommendations. People can make use of their results to make their own decision which party has the best chance of winning.
Oct 9, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Northern Ireland remains within the Customs Union but has to be renewed by the DUP (effectively) every 4 years (which they obviously won't). This is effectively a time-limited Backstop without using the word "Backstop".
Checks at the border. Checks away from the border. It makes no difference.
Everyone else seems to realise that this is an emotive issue and anything that breaks the spirit of the GFA is unacceptable, even if it doesn't break the letter of the law.
Aug 21, 2019 • 41 tweets • 7 min read
There is effectively no difference between a minimum wage and minimum living wage. A minimum wage which is too low to live off is simply too low - the minimum should be equal or higher to the living wage.
The problem is how (or more likely who) to determine the minimum wage? Centrally by the EU? or nationally by the member states? (or, I would argue, regionally?). I'm afraid that until all EU states start reaching something like economic parity, the answer is to do it nationally.
Aug 14, 2019 • 26 tweets • 6 min read
Welcome back to the popular series of "Misinterpreting survey results" (though this time I think without an attempt to deceive).
Again, a cautionary tale of how misreading survey results can lead to very misleading conclusions...
Survation has just published the results of a survey showing preferences of whether people wish to a) Remain in the EU, b) Leave with a Deal, or c) Crash out of the EU with no deal.
Jul 12, 2019 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Absolutely horrible misrepresentation of data. Shows what you can do by just changing the baseline for your measurements. A thread...
Data seems to show an increase in support for leaving the EU... but hold on... why is everything being compared to 2015? Nobody thought twice about leaving in 2015...
May 10, 2019 • 37 tweets • 7 min read
In /most/ regions (in England) the LibDems *do* have the best chance in the #EUelection2019 /however/ treating each region each region the same is naive and wrong. There are small regions (3-5 seats) and large regions (8-10 seats) and they can be treated differently.
In a small region, tactical voting necessitates targeting a single party - and it should be the party that has the most natural support in that region i.e. the one that has the best chance of winning and the most people would be comfortable voting for if asked to vote tactically.
Jan 23, 2019 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
Whichever party controls government will have to both borrow and print money - there is simply tons of things the UKGov will have to spend money on for any kind of Brexit. If you take a look at UKGov spending just in the last two years it has shot up (in preparation for Brexit).
Sure, Labour would probably print more money than the Tories, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. They would also be more likely to invest in services and pump money into regional infrastructure than just prop up banks (which will also need a lot of support).
Jan 3, 2019 • 71 tweets • 15 min read
I actually have his book on the desk behind me. Much like Machiavelli's The Prince, it's a manual on how to be a complete and utter bastard (and win). Many of the chapters point to why Leave won, others to why Remain lost. Based on its content, #FBPE need to get its hands dirty.
The article is very different, and it's Leavers that are the narcissists - they hold a belief in something and won't accept being called up on it, deny any facts they're shown as fake news and propaganda, while never questioning their own sources.
Nov 6, 2018 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
I think I already did - but for your benefit, allow me to do so again. You're stupid.
How dare the EU tell us how to spend our money? How fucking dare they suggest that perhaps we should be spending money on some of the things that our government for some fucking reason isn't.
Outrageous that we should be paying money to the EU that they fritter away on development projects in far away impoverished areas like Cornwall, West Wales, and the North. Let's call this tyranny what it really is - foreign aid.
We are the unwilling recipients of foreign aid.
Oct 8, 2018 • 32 tweets • 6 min read
Jet engines are not my area of expertise, but I am an auditor (and not the accounting kind) so let's do this thing.
(Bear in mind that I'm making some generalisations here and I haven't had time to actually do any research so don't take any specifics as gospel)
"Important" industries tend to have one or more international agencies or regulators. For aviation, the ICAO sits at the top with the FAA, the EASA, and probably a whole load of national agencies as the actual regulators.
Oct 7, 2018 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
You're not understanding that this isn't about trade between companies, it's about trade agreements between states. If SK has a default tariff of 30% on aero, but has negotiated a 10% tariff rate for the first £10Bn/yr with the EU - that puts the UK companies at a disadvantage.
An SK company buying the aero parts is going to be choosing between EU parts at a 10% tariff or UK parts at 30%. Which are they going to choose?
Oct 3, 2018 • 26 tweets • 4 min read
French and Dutch voted ignored? Hardly. Their no votes caused the proposed Constitution to be shelved. Over the next 3 years it was amended to become the Lisbon treaty.
When Ireland voted no on the Lisbon treaty, over 40% of voters stated that not knowing enough about the treaty as the primary reason for their vote, followed by a lack of clarity on certain issues.
Apr 25, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Well, that's Wales sold down the river.
This BBC article shows the contradictions in the Welsh Assembly's argument (as unclearly as possible, which I can only presume is intentional)
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
It says at the same time that devolved powers will be preserved except the role of Brussels being transferred to Westminster (which sounds reasonable), but at the same time that Westminster wants to apply a common UK-wide policies.
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by @traciewayling view original on Twitter
The Tory's control more than half of councils, nearly double Labour. Losing control of even half of them is unrealistic, and even if it happened under fixed term government I can all but guarantee it won't result in a General Election.
Apr 16, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
I'd rather be on the losing side than the wrong side.
I'd rather be on the side of facts and reason, than impotent feelings of no control and paranoid fantasy.
I'd rather be on the side of cooperation with our neighbors, than competition with a made-up enemy.
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by @paulie_paulie view original on Twitter
I'd rather be on the side of compassion and humanity, than xenophobia and racism.
I'd rather be on the side of unity and solidarity, than nativism, nationalism, and even fucking fascism.
A say in whether the EU enlarges or not.
A say in if the EU federalises or remains a union of independent states.
A say in if there is an EU army.
Being the financial capital through which the majority of € is traded while still keeping the £.
The UK has taken the lead in efforts for EU enlargement. It pushed for the inclusion of Eastern European states. It pushed for Turkey to get its shit together so that it could join (which it made very slow progress with, and has largely been undone by Erdogan)
Feb 16, 2018 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
Sigh... Would you like an ELI5 of why #Brexit economics is garbage?
You have a lot of apples. You sell 50 apples to the EU for a £1 each, and you sell 50 to the rest of the world (ROW) for £1.20 (Germany sells 80 btw). That's 100 apples, £100. (the £20 is tariffs) 1/
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by @69whisper69 view original on Twitter
If you cut off all trade to the EU as you propose, you would have to negotiate a lot of FTAs *and* sell at least 100 apples at £1 to the ROW to make up for the loss of stopping selling to the EU. And even then you're only breaking even.
2/
