London-based geopolitical analyst focused on #Russia, #Ukraine, #Belarus, #Eurasia.
I tweet in personal capacity. All views are my own. Retweet ≠ endorsement.
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Dec 30, 2024 • 18 tweets • 5 min read
By waging genocidal war, Russia kept destroying cities and towns across Ukraine, especially along the frontline, in 2024.
Here are some photos of what Russia does to Ukraine:
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Vovchansk, Kharkiv region, May 2024.
Vovchansk, Kharkiv region, Ukraine, May 2024.
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Jul 21, 2024 • 16 tweets • 10 min read
THREAD on #Belarus:
Yesterday, it was exactly 30 years since dictator Alexander Lukashenka came to power in Belarus on 20 July 1994. He campaigned on the platform of being a young and energetic leader in his late 30s who wanted to replace the 70 year olds in power.
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In June-July 1994, Belarusians went to a free and open election, the last free election in Belarusian history. I was 17 back then and could not vote.
Before the election, Lukashenka claimed that he would fight against corruption and would restore the ling standards.
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Jun 9, 2024 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Yesterday, Ukrainian attack UAVs have reportedly targeted #Mozdok military airfield in #NorthOssetia, south #Russia.
This was the first time North Ossetia was targeted by #Ukraine-launched strikes since the start of the war.
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themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/08/in-…
Also yesterday, Ukrainian attack UAVs have reportedly targeted an oil field in northern #Dagestan, south #Russia.
This was the first time Dagestan was targeted by #Ukraine-launched strikes since the start of the war.
Yesterday, the illegal Lukashenka regime in #Belarus designated the Telegram channel of Belarusian Library in #London, #UK, @skarynauka, as an "extremist" one.
THREAD on the library.
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budzma.org/news/skarynauk…
Belarusian Library in #London, #UK, @skarynauka, was founded in 1971, contains 40,000 books. It makes it the largest collection of Belarusian books outside o Belarus.
It's nearly 9 May, when #Russia is celebrating "Victory Day". It's time to talk about #Pobedobesie - a militaristic fetishisation of WW2 in Putin's Russia.
1/x #Pobedobesie is a pejorative term used to describe the "hyperbolic celebrations" of Victory Day in #Russia. This has been dubbed the Victory Cult.
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Mar 10, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
This memo was reportedly found with the documents of a Russian servicemen KIA in Ukraine.
Some points are fairly standard, but some are curious. Short thread:
1/x 1. Wear proper attire; do not wear patches or other insignia identifying your unit. 2. Be reserved while dealing with the civilians in "liberated areas", do not seek contact with them, do not accept any food or other items from them. 3. Use first person: WE advance, etc.
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Dec 29, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Thread.
Overnight, in #Odesa, south #Ukraine, the monument to the Russian Empress Catherine II, was removed from its site
This will cause a major propaganda uproar in #Russia, which will blame Ukraine of “removing Russian cultural heritage”.
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The monument to Catherine II, Empress of Russia in 1762-1796, was erected in Odesa in 1900. It was dismantled shortly after the Russian Revolution, in 1920, after the Bolsheviks gained control of the city.
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Nov 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
During his speech on #Russia's "Day of National Unity" on 4 November, Putin talked of #Ukraine's supposed territorial disputes with #Poland, #Romania and #Hungary.
This is a clear attempt to "normalise" the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Today, Putin's decree not only introduced martial law in 4 partially Russian-occupied regions of #Ukraine, but also introduces three separate governance and security regimes in #Russia:
A quick thread:
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kremlin.ru/events/preside…2/x In the regions bordering Ukraine - from Bryansk to Krasnodar - plus the occupied Crimea and Sevastopol, not shown on the map as they are Ukraine, there is regime of "average reaction level" to be introduced. Show orange on the map.
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Oct 16, 2022 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
In #London, #UK, about a thousand people joined a rally organised by the Russian emigres in #protest against the war in #Ukraine and the ongoing political repressions in #Russia:
More photos from this rally: interestingly the rally included members of the Russian ethnic minorities, from Sakha-Yakutia to North Caucasus.
Sep 19, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Since February 2022, #Russia's war against #Ukraine displaced at least 7.2 million Ukrainian refugees to countries abroad.
This includes:
Poland - 1.38 million
Germany - 1 million
Czechia - 431K
Italy - 159K
Turkey - 145K
Spain - 142K
UK - 123K
France - 101K
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Ukrainian refugees (continued from tweet above)
Slovakia - 93K
Moldova - 91K
Austria - 81K
Romania - 81K
Netherlands - 77K
Bulgaria - 67K
Lithuania -65K
Switzerland -- 61K
Belgium - 55K
Estonia - 55K
Portugal - 50K
Sweden - 47K
Ireland - 47K
Finland - 38K
Latvia - 38K
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Aug 31, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
In #Russia, leaked documents shed light on Kremlin's plans to falsify "referenda" in the occupied areas in eastern and southern #Ukraine. The fraudulent "votes" are to be organised by the Russian EC, in blatant violation of international law.
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theins.ru/en/politics/25…
The Russian occupiers already set a "target" figure for the "yes" vote in the referendum planned in occupied Donetsk region. Russia wants to get 70% in favour:
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Aug 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
According to UN figures, there are more than 6.3 million refugees from #Ukraine registered in #Europe.
This includes:
Poland - 1,256K
Germany - 915K
Czechia - 405K
Italy - 157K
Turkey - 145K
Spain - 132K
UK - 108 K
France - 92K
Moldova - 88K
Slovakia - 87K
Bulgaria - 85K
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This includes (continued):
Romania - 84K
Austria - 78K
Netherlands - 68K
Lithuania - 61K
Switzerland - 59K
Belgium - 53K
Estonia - 48K
Portugal - 48K
Ireland - 44K
Sweden - 43K
Latvia - 36K
Denmark - 32K
Finland - 30K
Hungary - 28K
Georgia - 26K
Norway - 22K
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In #Russia's war in #Ukraine, Russia's ethnic minorities are experiencing the highest combat losses, according to the Russian official stats on combat deaths. Per each killed serviceman in Ukraine from #Moscow 87.5 Dagestanis, 275 Buryats or 350 Tuvans are killed.
More details about the disproportionate war losses among #Russia's ethnic minorities and peripheral regions read here (in Russian)
Thread: Two thirds of #Russia's regions entered #recession already in April 2022.
I tweeted about this earlier, but it deserves an own small thread. Here's the news report (in English)
1/x hindustannewshub.com/russia-ukraine…
Original news report in Russian from 13 June: the number of Russian regions registering economic growth decreased from 72 in February to 55 in March and 27 in April 2022. Two thirds were in recession in April.
Your reporting here is really poor. These are not "pro-Moscow authorities" of Kherson region in south Ukraine but the Russian occupation administrators. Please use the correct designations.
Ever heard of fact checking?
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reuters.com/markets/commod…
You name Kirill Stremousov a "deputy head of the Military-Civilian Administration". He is a local blogger and imposter. Ukrainian prosecutors initiated a criminal case against him on treason charges.
THREAD. In #Russia, the authorities are reportedly circulating a memo to all government-controlled or state-owned entities / firms, to explain the official position on the Russian #war on #Ukraine to workers / employees.
1/x 1) The “military operation” is a preventive measure in order to prevent the full-scale aggression against Russia that is being prepared by Ukraine. 2) There was a real threat that Ukraine would use missile, nuclear and biological weapons against Russia.
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Feb 19, 2022 • 27 tweets • 11 min read
What has been happening in and around #Ukraine in the past 24 hours. THREAD.
Map via @mhmck 1/x #Russia's proxies in the Donbas conflict zone, DPR and LPR shelled #Ukraine's armed forces positions on 18 February 66 times, 52 of which involved weapons proscribed by the Minsk agreements.
In eastern #Ukraine, the #Russia|n proxy #DPR militias use this advert for recruiting militants.
Two items to note.
1) The photo was stolen from Norway’s armed forces @KonNorway 2) The advert promises facilitation in acquiring Russian passports.
Proof re Norwegian armed forces:
IMHO, events in #Kazakhstan in the past week have undermined Putin's argument that #Russia has a right to a 'sphere of influence' in the former Soviet space. This will weaken Russia's negotiating position in the upcoming talks.
I will explain why.
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Putin's notion of Russia's 'area of privileged interest' is based on the narrative that Moscow acts as the stabilising force in the region. If the Kremlin is allowed to keep countries in its sphere of influence, they will be stable, with low levels of violence.
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