Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #federalreserve

Most recents (24)

The United States Treasury Bonds were considered the safest bonds in the whole world all these years. Investors and governments always preferred to park their money buying these bonds. Why?
The Fed was able to keep the real interest rates of these bonds (inflation-adjusted) above zero.

Until,
Now, The world finally lost trust in these bonds. The Fed lost control over its economy. On 15th March 2021, the real interest rates dropped well below zero and are now at -5.4 %. It means whoever bought US treasury bonds will carry a negative real interest rate.
Read 5 tweets
The Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate .75%, the announcement this Wednesday...
1/🧵
As inflation becomes more out of control the FED is set to decide to raise interest rates .75%
- The FED hasn't made that substantial of a hike since 1994
- At the beginning of their meeting on June 4th they initially decided to raise in the interest rate another half.
2/🧵
- But as new inflation and tumbling stock market numbers emerged the new rate hike number will be .75%.
- New consumer surveys have stated that inflation could hit 9% by next month and the planned rate hikes won't composite for Biden's runaway inflation.
3/🧵
Read 5 tweets
4 must watch clips from today's Daily Briefing with @biancoresearch & @AshBennington.

"The #FederalReserve wants you to lose money. They need you to lose money in order for #inflation to come down."
"This is not don't fight the Fed, this is the #Fed is your enemy out to kill you..."
Politicians and rationality... Really just depends on how close we are to the next election.
Read 4 tweets
1/13 Where is the FED Put?

Stock market decline of 30 to 40% in isolation most likely won't cause a FED pivot. Financial (in)-stability the main potential driver for a FED pivot. Watch the US $.
#FederalReserve
#inflation
#NASDAQ
2/13 "Don't fight the FED" is investment advise with a lot of muscle memory. Over the last three decades stock market investors have gotten used to the FED coming to the rescue when markets are down 20+ %.
3/13 Greenspan 1997/Long Term Capital Management, Greenspan again 2001/Internet Bubble, Bernanke 2008/Great Financial Crisis and Powell in 2019/Repo Crisis are prime examples. While the S&P is not quite down 20% from its peak, the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are already there.
Read 15 tweets
Here are a few slides I sent the guys by way of a pre-amble:
🧵
1/n
For all the blithe talk about #EnergyTransition, the blunt truth is that civilisation runs on hydrocarbons. Remove the latter and the former falls, too.

2/n
Even the food we eat requires them. We have not improved the living standards of all our teeming billions on the quasi-Neolithic methods of farming so beloved of the ignorant #Green metromarxists.

3/n
Read 8 tweets
🚨Worth studying: 👇
"The Anatomy of the Bond Market Turbulence of 1994" - Bank for International Settlements

link in thread below. 🧵

#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds

1/ ImageImageImage
2/

Link to the paper from Bank of International Settlements

#banks #riskparity #assetallocation #risk #riskmanagement #rates #us10y #bonds

bis.org/publ/work32.pdf
Read 8 tweets
LIVE NOTES: Powell speaks at the FOMC Press Conference.

The Fed will be hiking interest rates by 50bps.
Balance sheet run-off will begin on June 1st.

We will be adding updates to this thread live as we watch the Press Conference!

#FOMC #FederalReserve #Fed #Powell
You can view Powell's discussion live through this link:
Balance Sheet Run-Off (QT): The Fed will not be reinvesting coupons and principal payments on the bonds it own.

As the bonds mature, these will run-off and effectively shrink their balance sheet.
Read 25 tweets
As the first rate hike of this new (imho very short) rate hike cycle is getting closer, let's have a look at the performance of the #USD, #commodities and #gold before and after the first hike:
Will the #USD rally? Not necessarily..

The period prior to a US tightening shows a rally in the USD but very often weakens in the 6-month period following the first hike....
What about #commodities? Consensus would tell us that raising rates will cause commodities to sell off.

Not really. ..The first rate hike proved to be close to the bottom for the 2015 cycle, and all cycles were higher a couple of months out...
Read 7 tweets
"Smartphones" trump food. #DigitalID

Nov 1 2021, #CBDC India: "so every single person today, even if he's not able to afford all the 3 meals, is having a #Smartphone in his hand. And I must thank some of the Asian countries which actually revolutionize[d] the smartphone market"
"so these three: the #biometric identity, the no-frills savings account [], & of course the #smartphone, & the fact that data is so cheap in India was the one which actually set the ground... I think #Canada & India started on this journey of instant payments almost together..."
Jan 18 2021, Payments #Canada: "Design attributes for a retail #CBDC... introduction of a new channel for illicit activities, money-laundering, terrorist financing other socially undesirable behaviours."

#DigitalID #Compliance #Surveillance

payments.ca/sites/default/…
Read 8 tweets
BREAKING: A gloomy, overcast day in #Kiev. #Ukraine's capital stands precariously at the edge of #war. #Russian president Vladimir #Putin declared a military offensive earlier today. There are reports of shelling, air strikes and casualties across Ukraine. A developing 🧵. 1/
Speaking to @SkyNewsBreak, a former Vice PM of #Ukraine warned that Putin won't stop at Kyiv. She reported shelling and bombing in Kyiv, where she resides, and appealed for swift, decisive action from the West. Notably, she mentioned the #SWIFT payments system as a tool. 2/
No one can doubt the resolve of the Ukrainian people in the face of adversity. But their #military is no match for #Russia. So cutting them off from the SWIFT payments settlement system could force the Russians into stepping back. But will the #US and #EU take that step? 3/
Read 62 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 02/02/2022 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2022/02/02/dai…
A Billion Years of Time Are Mysteriously Missing. Scientists Think They Know Why.
vice.com/en/article/wxd…
#GrandCanyon, #geology, #GreatUnconformity, #TectonicModel
What Happens Next in Ukraine Could Change Europe Forever | Time
time.com/6143009/ukrain…
#InternationalRelations, #russia, #ukraine, #europe
Read 20 tweets
#Thread #threadstorytime

Interesting timeline prior to C0V1D
August 2019

#BlackRock Investment Institute
Dealing with the next downturn:
From unconventional monetary policy to
unprecedented policy coordination
#FederalReserve #GreatReset

blackrock.com/corporate/lite…
August 22-24th 2019
Federal reserve and central bankers from around the world
met at Jackson Hole Wyoming .

Blackrock presents the white paper written by 3 ex central banks ( one has dual citizenship btw) to them .

wallstreetonparade.com/2020/06/blackr…
Sept 16 2019
3 Traders at JP Morgan were indicted on RICO for manipulating the metals market
cnbc.com/2019/09/16/thr…
Read 16 tweets
THREAD: A picture is worth a thousand words. Let's look at a few #ETF graphs & see if we can make some sense of the current market environment.

What a year it's been for #Oil & #Energy! Sharing only positive YTD #MSCI #Sector performance with #Financials.

$IXC $IXG
2/15

#EmergingMarkets #ETF seriously lagging #DevelopedMarkets ETF, mostly due to disinvestment from #China.

#SouthAfrica might need a lot of catch up, but $EZA 1YR performance in USD (+9.9%) is still ahead of $EEM (-11.3%)

$URTH
3/15

#Global #Value #stocks (#ETF) recently enjoyed short-term recovery, but still got some serious catch-up to do over the longer term.

$IWVL
Read 16 tweets
Amerikan Merkez Bankası (Fed) herkesin merakla beklediği para politikası toplantısını tamamladı. Toplantı metninden sürpriz bir karar çıkmadı.

Buna göre,

Fed’in halihazırda azalan aylık varlık alımları Mart’ta son bulacak. ⬇️

#FederalReserve #Fed #kriptopara #Crypto
Aynı ay, faizlerin artırılması gündeme gelecek

Peşi sıra bilanço küçülmeye başlayacak.

Buraya kadar bir sorun yok. Fakat işler basın toplantısı sırasında Başkan Powell’in soruları yanıtlaması ile koptu.
⬇️
Bilmek mümkün değil ancak zannediyorum ki bilinçli bir şekilde, toplantının vitaminli kısmı buraya ayrılmıştı. Çünkü Başkan hemen her soruya şahince yanıtlar verdi. Yani enflasyonu aşağı çekmek isteyen biri gibi.⬇️
Read 16 tweets
Today the #Federalreserve starts a meeting, which is likely to be one of its most crucial ones.

The #Fed Open Market Committee members decide on interest rate rises and timeline for "quantitative tightening" or QT or balance sheer runoff.

Why is this so crucial? Thread. 1/12
We've been highly critical towards the 'ultra-loose' monetary policy for years.

Extremely low interest rates and asset purchases of a central bank lead to excessive speculation in the financial markets and to "corruption" ... 2/
gnseconomics.com/2018/12/06/the…
... of the risk-and-reward relationship, which guides the accumulation of capital.

This combination leads to an economy, which is extremely fragile and in a constant risk of imploding.

To sustain itself, the #economy needs continuous resuscitation. 4/
gnseconomics.com/2020/10/08/the…
Read 10 tweets
1.) As a builder on #ALGO, the recent price action does not worry me. In fact it excites me 👇
2.) Known supply coupled with unknown demand is a unique feature of crypto. For instance, if gold goes up in price then gold miners can use increased profits to mine more gold.
3.) The fixed supply prevents this from happening in crypto, and so in turn the markets are necessarily more volatile. But why does this mean that a market sell-off excites me?
Read 13 tweets
/1

A thread on credit creation, money supply, and how the printer does (and doesn't) go brrrr 🧵🖨💸👇

First, banks don’t lend reserves – banks make a loan first, then they find reserves second (if necessary)...

#monetarypolicy #FederalReserve #Fed
/2

If a bank extends a new loan, it creates a loan asset and a deposit liability on their balance sheet ⚖️:

loan deposit
📄 💵
asset liability

/3

The bank only needs reserves against that loan in case the borrower wants to move his deposit to another bank:

e.g. A borrower from Bank ABC is a construction co who needs to buy materials from a supplier whose checking account is at Bank XYZ...

👷‍♂️↔️💁‍♀️
💸↔️🪵
Read 20 tweets
My thoughts into #FederalReserve meeting..let's recap:
Last Fed Meeting:Nov 3rd-Fed announces tapering to begin (as expected)
Nov 22nd:Biden nominates Powell for another term
Nov 30th:Powell testifies in Congress and indicates "transitory" is gone&may accelerate taper (cont'd)
This 11/30 testimony was in the wake of new COVID wave (Omicron)&investors assumed Powell would take note of that (didn't)
Yes,there is a #dotplot coming today (last one September)Fed Fund Futures have already done the work (2-3 hikes in 2021)1st hike late spring '22 (cont'd)
since 11/3:we have seen 2yr yields move from low .40's to high .60's & 10yr yields from 1.60's to 1.40's (2/10 spread narrowing dramatically); we have also seen several high inflation prints (CPI/PPI),low jobless claims & unfortunately a major acceleration in COVID cases (cont'd)
Read 6 tweets

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