Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #AR5

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Thread: Blatant #ClimateDenial has lost. The new conflict is whether #ClimateChange is a crisis requiring urgent social and #economic transformation, or something we can adapt to incrementally while carrying on with business as usual. 1/40
2/ A recent opinion piece by Bjorn Lomborg in the @globeandmail is representative of the 'business as usual argument'. Let's deconstruct it to see how this gets passed off as the pragmatic point of view, and why it's false.…
3/ The basic tactic is this: provide a few common-sense truths to gain the air of pragmatism and then feed us the story we're desperate to hear: that everything will be fine, that growth will outpace #ClimateDamages and life can carry on as usual.
Read 41 tweets
This has not changed from earlier #IPCC assessments (like #AR5 or #SR15), but, not surprisingly, trade-offs with other forms of land-use are better highlighted in #SRCCL
All mitigation pathway archetypes for 1.5-2 °C (RCP1.9/2.6) include large volumes of carbon dioxide removal, even the very optimistic Pathway 6 that excludes engineered CDR (represented by BECCS) but relies on a large land sink… (ch 2.6.2) #SRCCL
Cumulative CDR volumes by 2100 for these 6 archetype mitigation pathways are quite high
P1: 395 Gt BECCS + 73 Gt Afforestation
P2: 466 Gt BECCS + 117 Gt AF
P3: 944 Gt BECCS only
P4: 300 Gt BECCS + 428 Gt AF
P5: 252 Gt BECCS + 128 Gt AF
P6: 124 Gt AF only
Read 5 tweets
0. Certains disent que les climatologues rappellent tjrs la différence entre #météo & #climat quand on subit des conditions froides alors qu’ils évoquent uniquement le #ChangementClimatique en épisodes chauds #canicule2019. Discutons-en (fil à dérouler 0/n)
1. Dans ce fil, même traitement pour l'épisode froid de Mai dernier #MaiFroid2019 & la #canicule2019.
--> D’abord #météo = discussion factuelle des 2 événements.
--> Puis #climat = discussion de leur statistique (chance d’occurrence, intensité des impacts, etc.) (1/n)
2.#météo: Reprise de mon tweet (15 Mai) qui présentait l'animation de la température a ~1500m. On y voit une bouffée chaude se propageant du Maroc vers Islande léchant l'Europe de l'Ouest & 2 descentes/bulles d’air froid sur Europe centrale #MaiFroid2019 & large Terre-Neuve (2/n)
Read 25 tweets
#Lomborg krijgt opnieuw 2 pagina's in @demorgen om twijfel te zaaien over het nut van klimaatbeleid. Draadje met de belangrijkste bezwaren. @jdceulaer @barteeckhout
De kern van Lomborgs redenering is nogal paradoxaal: de klimaatopwarming afremmen zal niet lukken, ook niet met het klimaatakkoord van Parijs, maar dat is ook niet zo erg. De mens kan zich aanpassen aan de opwarming.
Hij haalt ter staving z'n fel bekritiseerde studie aan: die komt tot minieme resultaten van het klimaatakkoord van Parijs omdat ze erg onwaarschijnlijke aannames hanteert. Hier de resultaten van Lomborg versus die van anderen, zoals de Belgische topwetenschapper @JoeriRogelj
Read 9 tweets
Does model bias effect outcomes of the #IPCC 1.5°C emission scenarios #SR15?

The scenario database is over represented by some model frameworks. Taking statistics will over represent some models (eg, REMIND, AIM), discount others (eg @IEA), & not all models included!

The bias varies by scenario category, here for 1.5°C scenarios with "no or low overshoot" as highlighted in #SR15. Should REMIND & POLES get more weight then GCAM or MERGE?
I often take medians of scenarios to simplify communication, trying to reveal the "key characteristics" of 1.5°C (trying to find robust messages). The scenario community does not like this approach
Read 8 tweets
In 2013 @IPCC_CH concluded “Surface meltwater, although abundant on the #Greenland ice sheet, does not drive significant changes in basal lubrication that impact on ice sheet flow”. Could the opposite be emerging as a new paradigm? Thread 👇 1/12. Read and tweet. #climateclimate
The #IPCC #5AR statement (above) refers to efficient evacuation of meltwater in large channels, which can slow down the #ice flow by removing water that otherwise would lubricate and promote faster sliding over the bed. 2/12…
Evacuation of meltwater in efficient channels explains why #ice flow in some regions of #Greenland has slowed down despite year-on-year increases in air temperature and surface melting. But how widespread are those observations? 3/12…
Read 13 tweets

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