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The 1st step to improve your trading is to stop lying to yourself. You don't suck at trading because of bears/pumpers/ marketmakers etc. You stuck at trading because of:
Shit psychology /mindset
Shit setups (stock selection)
Shit exits
Shit sizing
Shit entries
#BearTipOfTheDay
Shit psychology /mindset
Shit setups (stock selection)
Shit exits
Shit sizing
Shit entries
#BearTipOfTheDay
We live in a society where at the FIRST sign of failure/struggle, people's FIRST reaction is to blame someone or something else. The most important skill to master in this day & age in order to be good at ANYTHING, is the ability to shut the f**k up and look in the mirror.
if u are fat it's because u eat more than u move. PERIOD.
u are frail b/c u dont lift weights consistently. PERIOD.
u are dumb AF b/c u dont read enough. PERIOD.
u struggle at trading b/c SOMETHING is wrong with YOUR process.
Look within. Reflect. Improve.
#BearTipOfTheDay
u are frail b/c u dont lift weights consistently. PERIOD.
u are dumb AF b/c u dont read enough. PERIOD.
u struggle at trading b/c SOMETHING is wrong with YOUR process.
Look within. Reflect. Improve.
#BearTipOfTheDay
Lil secret.
🎯The most ACCURATE trade setups (high win rate) must be entered a little "too late" and exited a little "too early".
💵The most PROFITABLE trade setups (high reward to risk ratio) must be entered a little "too early" and exited a little "too late"
#BearTipOfTheDay
🎯The most ACCURATE trade setups (high win rate) must be entered a little "too late" and exited a little "too early".
💵The most PROFITABLE trade setups (high reward to risk ratio) must be entered a little "too early" and exited a little "too late"
#BearTipOfTheDay
Why?
To maximize accuracy (win rate), you must wait for confirmation.
Confirmation means that you're letting the smart money move the trade in your favor (or stop the momentum) BEFORE u commit size.
This automatically means that u'll have to enter a bit "late". cant have both
To maximize accuracy (win rate), you must wait for confirmation.
Confirmation means that you're letting the smart money move the trade in your favor (or stop the momentum) BEFORE u commit size.
This automatically means that u'll have to enter a bit "late". cant have both
To maximize profits (high reward) aka capture the majority of the move's range, you have to get in BEFORE the move starts (when no one wants the stock).
This automatically means that u must risk getting stopped out early by MMs or being wrong on ur thesis (since no confirmation)
This automatically means that u must risk getting stopped out early by MMs or being wrong on ur thesis (since no confirmation)
I never trade on intuition.
Intuition involves feelings, and feelings can be affected by sleep, water, stress levels, testosterone levels etc, even what you ate the night before.
It's never wise to let the future of your trading account be decided by a sandwich.
Intuition involves feelings, and feelings can be affected by sleep, water, stress levels, testosterone levels etc, even what you ate the night before.
It's never wise to let the future of your trading account be decided by a sandwich.
Are there times when my "gut feeling" was right? yes. But I can also show u times when that same gut feeling was wrong and I ended up buttfucked. But humans love confirmation bias so we only focus on times when our intuition was right, & we ignore the other times. Intuition is BS
Conclusion, you should base all of your trades off facts or probabilities. Specific & objective Patterns that repeat over and over again. Fundamental or Technical Patterns that u can backtest.
Algos rule the market & how much "iNtUiTiOn" do they use?
#BearTipOfTheDay
Algos rule the market & how much "iNtUiTiOn" do they use?
#BearTipOfTheDay
High Spatial IQ will help you learn trading faster ONLY because it'll help you recognize patterns faster. But that's about it. Once you learn how to trade, high spatial IQ is useless.
But on the other hand,
But on the other hand,
High overall IQ can actually buttfuck u in trading b/c:
1) it'll make u overcomplicate trading
2) the ego that comes with high IQ will make it harder for u to manage risk, since smart ppl hate admitting that they're wrong. So they refuse to stop out or they revenge trade a lot
1) it'll make u overcomplicate trading
2) the ego that comes with high IQ will make it harder for u to manage risk, since smart ppl hate admitting that they're wrong. So they refuse to stop out or they revenge trade a lot
Ive taught many ppl how to trade, and ironically the smartest tended to struggle the most, because they were just too stubborn to keep things simple or stick to the plan. Meanwhile the low IQ motherfuckers tended to perform better b/c they just executed. No overanalyzing BS
There are many ways to know that u're not betting against the house (smart money). The simplest one is to use common sense. Example if a low float trash stock gaps up 100% on BS news, with no pullback, & a ton of buying volume comes in at the very TOP, who do u think is buying?
You think the smartest people in the market see a piece of shit stock literally one foot away from getting delisted gap up 100% on crap news and think "yeah this is a great buy. Dear broker, fill me in at the very top please" ?
Or let's use large caps / options as an example. Do u think the smartest money in the market see a LC stock that's been selling off for multiple days in a row out of pure irrational and think "yeah, that's a great place to start shorting or exit my long position" ?
Don't come to the market looking for the perfect trade, come looking for the perfect fools.
Study idiots. Study emotional traders. Study FOMO traders. Your job is to fill THEIR trades.
Remember, you don't trade to make money, you trade to take money.
#BearTipOfTheDay
Study idiots. Study emotional traders. Study FOMO traders. Your job is to fill THEIR trades.
Remember, you don't trade to make money, you trade to take money.
#BearTipOfTheDay
That's why I'm more concerned about WHO is on the other side of my trades than the actual setup/pattern/fundamentals/technicals alone.
Doesn't matter if the "sUpPoRT LeVeL" is perfect. If someone with DEEP pockets slams the bid, the stock will plummet.
Doesn't matter if the "sUpPoRT LeVeL" is perfect. If someone with DEEP pockets slams the bid, the stock will plummet.
Doesn't matter if the 'ReSiStAnCe LeVeL" is perfect or if the "fUnDaMenTaLs" are bad. If someone with deep enough pockets swipes the offer, the stock will go up.
Pockets move markets, and the "house" always wins. For your own sake, don't bet against the house please. GL
Pockets move markets, and the "house" always wins. For your own sake, don't bet against the house please. GL
😂You mischievous little cunts!! A bud sent me this and I damn near spit out my quinoa smoothie. No I didn't blow up, oh ye of little faith. You need an IQ of 13 and fetal exposure to spoiled shrooms to blow up doing credit spreads. 
Im in the middle of a 3 month $TWTR break that's supposed to end in september (football season). We were at the half year mark (june) and I already hit 50% completion of 2022 trading goals, but was way, WAY behind on 2022 family (vacations & travels), fitness, and business goals.
And by Sept I need to be at least 75% done with all 2022 goals before 🏈season starts, so that I can relax & turn on cruise control into year end. And each time im behind on goals I just temporarily cut out all low ROI activities, and tweeting to u fuckers is definitely 1 of em
1/2 My hopes for the overall market $SPY going into next wk
I want to short puts again (bullish play), because some reversal factors have lined up, EXCEPT for the most important one.... retail has not aggressively bought puts yet going into next week (they're not scared enough)
I want to short puts again (bullish play), because some reversal factors have lined up, EXCEPT for the most important one.... retail has not aggressively bought puts yet going into next week (they're not scared enough)
2/2 And as a contrarian, I have to be patient and wait for dumb money to position themselves first. So I'm sitting on the sidelines hoping that we get a massive selloff (or gap down) to break retail's confidence, instigate a panic, & force them to buy puts at inflated premiums
when they do, the ADF shop will be there to sell them all the goddamn puts they want lol.
if we bounce instead in the next few days (without a panic selloff 1st), then i'll just miss the bounce play & just wait for the next setup (long or short). Patience grasshopper, patience.
if we bounce instead in the next few days (without a panic selloff 1st), then i'll just miss the bounce play & just wait for the next setup (long or short). Patience grasshopper, patience.
Let me get this straight. Unless u guys are on massive amounts of Addy & cocaine, explain to me how 51% of u sleep less than 7h a day (1 of the SINGLE most important things that affects impulse control & discipline), yet complain that u have discipline issues? make it make sense
A very small minority of people can have perfect impulse control with low sleep, but for the vast majority of u fucks, if u think u're gonna do one of the most cognitively demanding jobs in the world (stock trading), on top of managing life, stress, family, friends, work, school
gym etc., with only sleep 7h or less, & expect to have good impulse control, then im sorry but u're f**g delusional.
Low sleep = low dopamine activity in the prefrontal cortex = overactive amygdala = discipline issues = trading blow ups.
Dont play with this.
#BearTipOfTheDay
Low sleep = low dopamine activity in the prefrontal cortex = overactive amygdala = discipline issues = trading blow ups.
Dont play with this.
#BearTipOfTheDay
Also fun fact, world news mean nothing. The market is manipulated by billionaire option sellers. They plan their moves (long or short) weeks in advance, then they just use whatever trending news to justify the move, hide their footprints, or trigger the final selling or squeeze.
why do you think bad news seems to ALWAYS happen when the market is already in a heavy downtrend? or why good news seems to always happen when stocks are already uptrending? when they're short MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to panic sell so they can cover.
when they're long MASSIVE positions, they need u fuckers to FOMO buy so they can take profits into ur buy orders (aka "sell the news"). And when u're a multibillionaire, who do u think u play golf with? joe smuck who works at target? or world politicians & owners of news outlets?
I explained how I trade in endless tweets
1) I NEVER go max size (1R risk) on a parabolic move (long or short) unless I get a blowoff or a pullback once Im in the money. In fact my buddy & I were on Voxer yesterday BEGGING for a blowoff so we could add the remaining portions.
1) I NEVER go max size (1R risk) on a parabolic move (long or short) unless I get a blowoff or a pullback once Im in the money. In fact my buddy & I were on Voxer yesterday BEGGING for a blowoff so we could add the remaining portions.
That's why a lot of times, when a move goes directly in my favor without a pullback or bounce, you see me tweet/complain "fuck, I was only on starter size" or "fuck, I didn't get to add the rest" etc. I ALWAYS break up my orders & drop Mjolnir only when EVERYTHING lines up
2) I never EVER sell naked. Im always doing spreads (or buying naked), this way my max loss is ALWAYS fixed. And if u know me then u know that the moment I take on a trade I already expect the trade to fail. in short, I mentally take the loss before it even happens
To be frank with u, I have no clue nor do I care. This is not the account to follow if u're looking for long term predictions or what might happen next month or next year etc. Anyone who tries to predict the market long term is either full of shit or full of vague BS statements
For every 1 "pReDiCtiOn" that comes true there is another 5 that failed. So we can sit here & talk advanced fundamentals and stats all day long, trust me, I can go full nerd mode when it comes to that, and i have spreadsheets GALORE. But NONE of that matters when u trade momentum
The ONLY thing I can "predict" with a high degree of accuracy is that dumb emotional money almost always loses in the end, and that smart money (the house) almost always wins in the end. So what do i do? I just bet against dumb money. Simple as that.
The power of quality over quantity never fails to amaze me. As some of u kno, ive been working on a little experiment lately (less time in front of screens, more time with family/friends, working out, hobbies etc). I 100% believed that my profits decrease during this experiment
But i was willing to pay that small price in exchange for more "balance" & a break from the "if i dont work 12-15hrs a day staring at screens then im not productive" mindset". Contrary to my expectations (that i would make LESS money), the OPPOSITE actually happened.
I reduced my "trading time" to just 3 hrs a day max (2.5 hrs in the AM to open/manage swings, and just 30min in the afternoon for market review + tracking + charts etc), and I actually made MORE money in the last few months than I did when I was spending almost ALL day on the cpu
Saying that placing stop losses is pointless because there is a chance they might get ran is like saying wearing a condom with the college slut is pointless because there is a chance that it might pop anyway.
Until gonorrhea hits u with the "you gon learn today".
Use stops.
Until gonorrhea hits u with the "you gon learn today".
Use stops.
Also dont think "FiNe iLL jUst uSe a MeNtAl StoP tHeN".
Market makers are not dumb. they dont need to SEE ur stop to know it's there. Based on volume, order flow & stats they can estimate where most ppl's pain thresholds are. So NO ONE is safe from this, hard stop or mental stop
Market makers are not dumb. they dont need to SEE ur stop to know it's there. Based on volume, order flow & stats they can estimate where most ppl's pain thresholds are. So NO ONE is safe from this, hard stop or mental stop
The point of that thread was not "dont use stops". it's "use stop hunting as an EDGE in ur own trading". If u cant beat em, join em. As far as ur own stops go, some day they'll hold, some day they'll get ran too. who tf cares? losses are part of the game. manage em, dont avoid em
One of the most common questions I get is "I feel like they're coming for my stops".
Sounds like a conspiracy theory, but fun fact, it's not.
The market is DESIGNED to stop people out. You will always struggle with entries, exits and risk management until u understand this.
Sounds like a conspiracy theory, but fun fact, it's not.
The market is DESIGNED to stop people out. You will always struggle with entries, exits and risk management until u understand this.
That's why everything can look good in hindsight & on ur backtested charts, but when shit gets real & the cameras start rolling, it quickly becomes a different ball game. Just b/c it looks perfect on ur stats & saved charts, doesn't mean it will always be perfect in real time
U can think "ok, i've seen this happen over & over again. I practiced. I studied. I'm ready", then soon as u get on the field and put ur football 🏈helmet on, u realize the field just switched to a fucking skating rink. The market says " u're playing hockey now, motherf*cker"
When doing a Trading Performance review at the end of the day, ask yourself:
1) Was my stock selection systematic, or did I impulsively select the stock?
2) did I have a realistic stop loss BEFORE taking the trade?
3) did I have a realistic target area BEFORE taking the trade?
1) Was my stock selection systematic, or did I impulsively select the stock?
2) did I have a realistic stop loss BEFORE taking the trade?
3) did I have a realistic target area BEFORE taking the trade?
4) was my size calculated BEFORE the trade, in accordance with my risk management system? or did I randomly estimate what size to use?
5) did I have a systematic ENTRY or did I get in at some random ass area due to FOMO?
Do this for EVERY trade u took that day. Then overtime,
5) did I have a systematic ENTRY or did I get in at some random ass area due to FOMO?
Do this for EVERY trade u took that day. Then overtime,
you'll see where most of your losses or stubborn trades come from. Is it #1? #3 ? #5? which of those 5 points leads to 80% of your losses (Pareto Principle) ? is it entries? exits? size? trade selection? it's different for everyone since we're all stubborn in different ways.
That's why u're supposed to group all ur trades into setups. Not every strategy is the same. different strategies have diff rules of engagement. Some setups are scalps, some are breakouts, some are reversals, some are all day fades etc. Each with diff targets, winrates, RR etc
High winrate setups (like scalping or reversals) have a high chance of paying off, so they should be traded with a wider stop & quicker profit target.
Low winrate setups (like breakouts) should be traded with a tighter stop but a bigger target to make up for the shitty winrate
Low winrate setups (like breakouts) should be traded with a tighter stop but a bigger target to make up for the shitty winrate
u cant take a scalp setup & say "iLL bE pAtiEnT wiTh tArGeTs". no, that's how u get creampied.
u also cant take a shitty winrate setup (like breakouts) & take profits too fast, b/c the many times u're wrong will eat into ur profits
Be methodical with this shit
#BearTipOfTheDay
u also cant take a shitty winrate setup (like breakouts) & take profits too fast, b/c the many times u're wrong will eat into ur profits
Be methodical with this shit
#BearTipOfTheDay
The more I answer questions the more I realize how full of shit this industry is. the amount of scammers & "gurus" out there who lure beginners in w/ unstainable strategies that offer short term satisfaction but long term failure is astounding. They lure u in with shit like this
Meanwhile the reality is THIS.
and u guys are EATING this shit up like it's fucking cheesecake.
STOP falling for this BS.
Most of my time spent on DMs is literally me helping ppl UNLEARN the shitty habits they built up listening to fuck ass scammy gurus that blow up themselves but then refund with YOUR money
STOP falling for this BS.
Most of my time spent on DMs is literally me helping ppl UNLEARN the shitty habits they built up listening to fuck ass scammy gurus that blow up themselves but then refund with YOUR money
🐻Best shortselling setups in lowfloat land:
-massive gappers
-overextended afternoon fades (my #bloodBath setup )
-I used to love overextended multiday runners yrs ago but they're not frequent enough
Use #vwapBoulevard, pm highs, or highvolume trendbreaks as areas to risk off
-massive gappers
-overextended afternoon fades (my #bloodBath setup )
-I used to love overextended multiday runners yrs ago but they're not frequent enough
Use #vwapBoulevard, pm highs, or highvolume trendbreaks as areas to risk off
🐻Best shortselling setups in largecap land:
-Big gap ups (very rare though)
-overextended multiday runs IF fueled by dumb money, not institutions
-Extended #ThuFriRule setups
-Negative catalyst events (rare)
-Daily chart Breakdowns out of massive volume profile areas
-Big gap ups (very rare though)
-overextended multiday runs IF fueled by dumb money, not institutions
-Extended #ThuFriRule setups
-Negative catalyst events (rare)
-Daily chart Breakdowns out of massive volume profile areas
🐂Best long setups
-when any of the bearish setups above fail & reclaim ( #youGonLearnToday setup).
Now
1) Pick 1-2 setups to track & master
2) Execute w/ flawless risk management
I just saved u years of pain, tracking, & hemorrhaging 💵. the rest is up to u
#BearTipOfTheDay
-when any of the bearish setups above fail & reclaim ( #youGonLearnToday setup).
Now
1) Pick 1-2 setups to track & master
2) Execute w/ flawless risk management
I just saved u years of pain, tracking, & hemorrhaging 💵. the rest is up to u
#BearTipOfTheDay
That's precisely why I say that I never use basic S/R levels as areas to risk off. Read all my smart vs dumb money threads. big players are liquidity hunters. All they care about is getting easy fills (from retail's market orders), & stop losses are LITERALLY liquidity gold mines
and where to most ppl place their stops? around basic ass support/resistance levels & round numbers. That's why basic S/R levels actually fail WAY more than they hold. Ppl just have confirmation bias & only focus on the few times that they work, then say "sEe? iT rEjEcTeD hErE"
but for each time a S/R level worked, I can show u 39 other examples where it didnt. S/R is not enough UNLESS it overlaps with several other supply/demand indicators ( MAs, bagholder areas like volume profile or #vwapBoulevard , open interest clusters, mean reversion zones etc
When I say demand/supply zones i'm not JUST talking about basic technical analysis 101 support/resistance levels. Many things contribute to demand or supply and some of the most accurate ones are not even on the chart.
why do u think sometimes a stock will have ZERO obvious resistance but keep rejecting?? or a stock will have zero obvious support levels on the chart but keep holding dips everytime? stop thinking the chart has all the answers. we'd all be billionaires if it were that simple.
That's why I always say find a setup & master it. There is no universal indicator that works for all asset classes. something will work with a 80% winrate on setup ABC but have a 20% winrate on setup XYZ. some things that work like MAGIC on lowfloats dont work at all on LCs etc
Most ppl enter the trade first then place their stop a certain amount away from their entry. "i'll enter here and just risk X cents". That's wrong. Your stop loss should ALWAYS be protected by a key supply (if short) or demand (if long) area. That's the whole point of a stop loss
it has to be protected by an area that the stock is NOT likely to breach. If ur entry is too far away from such an area (thus fucking up ur R/R) then ignore the trade. That's why I always say exits come before entries. If i cant find a good area to risk off then fuck the trade
That's also why I want my stop to be protected by as many factors as possible. A basic ass support/resistance area is not enough. I need multiple safeguards. My stop loss is my quarterback. I want EVERYBODY protecting that mofo. throw in 2 tight ends & block the RB if we have to
It depends on the beginner's goals.
If a beginner's goal is just side income, then swingtrade.
But if his goal is to master this shit & go full time, then he should daytrade at first. Mainly because trading is a skill, and fastest way to improve at any skill is thru repetition
If a beginner's goal is just side income, then swingtrade.
But if his goal is to master this shit & go full time, then he should daytrade at first. Mainly because trading is a skill, and fastest way to improve at any skill is thru repetition
And the hardest part about trading is not the ACTUAL trading, it's the mastery of emotions and the shedding of bad habits, which takes time and repetition. By swing trading as a beginner u're not exposing yourself to the market enough to expose AND shed off those shitty behaviors
That's why when ppl are still under PDT, they think "oh wow, im pretty disciplined". no bitch u only have 3 trades, of course u're "DiSciPliNeD". Then once they go off PDT they start blowing up , b/c now they have unlimited trades & their impulsive nature finally reveals itself
Honestly 1 of the reasons I want to spend less time in front of screens is simple. There is NO END to this game. Uwill NEVER be satisfied no matter how much 💵u make. And the more 💵u make, the LESS that 💵means to u, so u endup increasing size endlessly just to get the same rush
When u're a beginner trader, making ur first $100 in 1 day feels like the best day of ur life. U're excited & want to tell everyone.
Fast forward 1 year later and making $5K in 1 day feels like the worst day of ur life b/c that's ACTUALLY a day where u underperformed.
Fast forward 1 year later and making $5K in 1 day feels like the worst day of ur life b/c that's ACTUALLY a day where u underperformed.
Then add another year & u see where this is going. Eventually u get to a point where u're making entire SALARIES in 1 day and still feel like like u underperformed. U become so detached from reality that u forget that some ppl will never even see that kind of money in a lifetime
